European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Worthington’s due diligence introduces a credible takeout path, with Kloeckner trading on event probability rather than fundamentals. Concentrated ownership means pricing must satisfy the 41% anchor shareholder to advance discussions.</li>
<li>Standalone equity value sits near €7.05 per share once full balance-sheet obligations are incorporated. Identifiable synergies of €60–85m annually support a realistic takeover corridor of €8.25–9.78 per share.</li>
<li>Worthington has ample balance-sheet capacity to fund the acquisition. Pro forma leverage of 2.7–3.2× under a standard mixed-financing structure is comfortably financeable, making the transaction large but feasible.</li>
</ul>


Worthington’s due diligence introduces a credible takeout path, with Kloeckner trading on event probability rather than fundamentals. Concentrated ownership means pricing must satisfy the 41% anchor shareholder to advance discussions.
Standalone equity value sits near €7.05 per share once full balance-sheet obligations are incorporated. Identifiable synergies of €60–85m annually support a realistic takeover corridor of €8.25–9.78 per share.
Worthington has ample balance-sheet capacity to fund the acquisition. Pro forma leverage of 2.7–3.2× under a standard mixed-financing structure is comfortably financeable, making the transaction large but feasible.


Worthington Steel - Kloeckner: Strategic Optionality Emerges as Worthington’s Due Diligence Advances

<ul>
<li>Loh (29.97% stake) launches a voluntary offer at €9.75/share, 2.5% premium, but doesn't really intend to increase much its shareholding, rather have the flexibility to do it in the future.</li>
<li>With a favourable market environment, the EU steel sector has re-rated since Autumn. The shares trade 5.2% above the offer price (effectively a floor), so don't expect many acceptances.</li>
<li>Kloeckner currently trades on 6.3x EV/23e EBITDA (vs. a 6.5x 10-year average), and 0.52x P/BV. The median consensus price target (€9.73) is in line with the offer price.</li>
</ul>


Loh (29.97% stake) launches a voluntary offer at €9.75/share, 2.5% premium, but doesn't really intend to increase much its shareholding, rather have the flexibility to do it in the future.
With a favourable market environment, the EU steel sector has re-rated since Autumn. The shares trade 5.2% above the offer price (effectively a floor), so don't expect many acceptances.
Kloeckner currently trades on 6.3x EV/23e EBITDA (vs. a 6.5x 10-year average), and 0.52x P/BV. The median consensus price target (€9.73) is in line with the offer price.


Loh/Kloeckner & Co Se: Voluntary Takeover Offer

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. Commodity Sectors make up a majority of our EM-focused recommendations in this report.

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. Commodity Sectors make up a majority of our EM-focused recommendations in this report.

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

DMER Shorts - Hapag Lloyd negative warning not a surprise, stay sellers of container shipping <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/010/438/original/HLAPMM1.jpg?1468828073" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="10438"></figure> Hapag Lloyd negative warning not a surprise<ul><li><ul>
<li>
This morning Hapag Lloyd issued a negative outlook adjustment , “The revised expectation of the Executive Board is a clearly decreasing EBITDA and a clearly decreasing EBIT compared with previous year.” 
</li>
<li>
Key reasons for the revised outlook were as below, <ul>
<li>Development of freight rates is significantly weaker than expected.</li>
<li>
Recovery at beginning of July doesn’t…</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul></li></ul>

DMER Shorts - Hapag Lloyd negative warning not a surprise, stay sellers of container shipping  Hapag Lloyd negative warning not a surprise

This morning Hapag Lloyd issued a negative outlook adjustment , “The revised expectation of the Executive Board is a clearly decreasing EBITDA and a clearly decreasing EBIT compared with previous year.” 


Key reasons for the revised outlook were as below, 
Development of freight rates is significantly weaker than expected.

Recovery at beginning of July doesn’t…




DMER Shorts - Hapag Lloyd Negative Warning Not a Surprise, Stay Sellers of Container Shipping

Germany

Kloeckner & Co SE distributes a wide range of steel and metal products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kloeckner & Co (KCO GR)

Worthington Steel - Kloeckner: Strategic Optionality Emerges as Worthington’s Due Diligence Advances

Worthington’s due diligence creates real takeout optionality. Kloeckner’s standalone value is ~€7.05; synergies lift a bid to €8.25–9.78....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Loh/Kloeckner & Co Se: Voluntary Takeover Offer

Loh (29.97% stake) launches a voluntary offer at €9.75/share, 2.5% premium, but doesn't really intend to increase much its shareholding, rather...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving...

Vermilion Research

DMER Shorts - Hapag Lloyd Negative Warning Not a Surprise, Stay Sellers of Container Shipping

DMER Shorts - Hapag Lloyd negative warning not a surprise, stay sellers of container shipping Hapag Lloyd negative warning not a surprise This...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)