Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us believe the global equity market is not yet out of the woods. We are watching for signs of a turn of the tide. There has been significant damage inflicted and that damage is going to take time to repair. Actionable Themes in this report have representation in Staples, Health Care, Technology, and a collection of bottom-up ideas.

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us believe the global equity market is not yet out of the woods. We are watching for signs of a turn of the tide. There has been significant damage inflicted and that damage is going to take time to repair. Actionable Themes in this report have representation in Staples, Health Care, Technology, and a collection of bottom-up ideas. 

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

Kobe Bussan is a stock we have recommended owning since May 2019, and we believe it is currently offering another attractive entry point for both short-term traders and long-term investors. The stock remains in multi-year price and RS uptrends (relative to both MSCI ACWI and TOPIX) and exhibits a bullish short-term reversal at long-term uptrend support. Buy.

Kobe Bussan is a stock we have recommended owning since May 2019, and we believe it is currently offering another attractive entry point for both short-term traders and long-term investors. The stock remains in multi-year price and RS uptrends (relative to both MSCI ACWI and TOPIX) and exhibits a bullish short-term reversal at long-term uptrend support. Buy.

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the same time, after this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of this initial low - and oftentimes we get an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 we are of the belief that we will get an eventual test of this initial low and potentially an undercut. In this report we highlight key technical levels and indicators to watch and suggest investment opportunities with defensive and/or growth characteristics. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the same time, after this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of this initial low - and oftentimes we get an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 we are of the belief that we will get an eventual test of this initial low and potentially an undercut. In this report we highlight key technical levels and indicators to watch and suggest investment opportunities with defensive and/or growth characteristics. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Initial Low Established

Support levels have meant little more than talking points as indexes are slicing through them like butter. The truth remains that no one knows how low we will go, and the trend is still down for global equities. At the same time, every week where the MSCI ACWI loses ~10%, it gets that much closer to finding a bottom. In this report we provide updates on several indicators we are watching as to clues of a bottom.  We also highlight actionable themes within Staples, Health Care, Technology. We continue to recommend areas with defensive and/or growth characteristics.

Support levels have meant little more than talking points as indexes are slicing through them like butter. The truth remains that no one knows how low we will go, and the trend is still down for global equities. At the same time, every week where the MSCI ACWI loses ~10%, it gets that much closer to finding a bottom. In this report we provide updates on several indicators we are watching as to clues of a bottom.  We also highlight actionable themes within Staples, Health Care, Technology. We continue to recommend areas with defensive and/or growth characteristics.

Dollar Surge Further Aggravates Equity Markets

Japan

KOBE BUSSAN CO., LTD. is a supermarket franchise store operator which mainly deals in foods stuffs.  The Company also has direct-run stores.

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Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)

Major Indexes Testing Resistance

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities,...

Vermilion Research

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the...

Vermilion Research

Kobe Bussan (3038-TKS): Buy

Kobe Bussan is a stock we have recommended owning since May 2019, and we believe it is currently offering another attractive entry point for both...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Initial Low Established

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the...

Vermilion Research

Dollar Surge Further Aggravates Equity Markets

Support levels have meant little more than talking points as indexes are slicing through them like butter. The truth remains that no one knows how...

Vermilion Research

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