Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Memory and specifically DRAM and NAND surges as memory makers delay enterprise pricing guidance as supply/demand imbalance grows.</li>
<li>As AMD-Samsung vs NVDA-SK Hynix alliances form, Micronics should be the big winner.</li>
<li>Factory automatic and robotics stocks the next AI winners? Masa thinks so.</li>
</ul>


Memory and specifically DRAM and NAND surges as memory makers delay enterprise pricing guidance as supply/demand imbalance grows.
As AMD-Samsung vs NVDA-SK Hynix alliances form, Micronics should be the big winner.
Factory automatic and robotics stocks the next AI winners? Masa thinks so.


Japan Morning Connection: US Govt Rumored to Be Looking at Taking Stake in Wolfspeed

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Once every quarter the TSE reassesses free float weights for a set of companies whose fiscal years ended 7-10 months prior. Calendar Q1 is the biggie so October is too.</li>
<li>This year, as companies have made dramatic changes in their shareholder registries through crossholder sales, activist acquisitions, and other, there are some big changes and big dollar changes.</li>
<li>We see nearly 600 FFW changes up and down, and then nearly 1,100 stocks which see a significant (average 0.5x ADV) funding trade. $35bn in total.</li>
</ul>


Once every quarter the TSE reassesses free float weights for a set of companies whose fiscal years ended 7-10 months prior. Calendar Q1 is the biggie so October is too.
This year, as companies have made dramatic changes in their shareholder registries through crossholder sales, activist acquisitions, and other, there are some big changes and big dollar changes.
We see nearly 600 FFW changes up and down, and then nearly 1,100 stocks which see a significant (average 0.5x ADV) funding trade. $35bn in total.


The Oct 2025 TOPIX FFW Rebal - $35bn of Flows To Trade

<ul>
<li>Open AI at $500bn sends the whole AI edifice surging once again.</li>
<li>Siltronic's jumped 12% in EU and the outlook for the likes of Sumco and Shin Estu remains very positive.</li>
<li>Market see record deliveries for Tesla more as front-loading than an increase in overall demand, but robots likely to keep turning heads.</li>
</ul>


Open AI at $500bn sends the whole AI edifice surging once again.
Siltronic's jumped 12% in EU and the outlook for the likes of Sumco and Shin Estu remains very positive.
Market see record deliveries for Tesla more as front-loading than an increase in overall demand, but robots likely to keep turning heads.


Japan Morning Connection: AMAT Expecting Hit from China Export Restrictions May Take Shine off SPE

<ul>
<li>Tech and memory especially keep grinding higher with good showing from semi-cap.</li>
<li>Kioxia management expects to double memory output at several fabs over next 5-years.</li>
<li>MHI cutting their FY guidance as reality not quite meeting expectations...will the market care though?</li>
</ul>


Tech and memory especially keep grinding higher with good showing from semi-cap.
Kioxia management expects to double memory output at several fabs over next 5-years.
MHI cutting their FY guidance as reality not quite meeting expectations...will the market care though?


Japan Morning Connection: Shutdown Concerns Brushed Aside as Govt Set to Close This Morning

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> looked like a classic deletion, not addition.</li>
<li>93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.</li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.</li>
</ul>


Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. Shift Inc (3697 JP) looked like a classic deletion, not addition.
93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.


[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

Japan

Kokusai Electric Corporation manufactures and distributes semiconductor manufacturing systems. The Company produces batch processing systems, single wafer processing systems, and other systems. Kokusai Electric also operates advanced thermal process technology development, training, and other businesses.

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Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: US Govt Rumored to Be Looking at Taking Stake in Wolfspeed

Tech and AI bounce back after pullback the day before, flash/NAND related especially strong. WOLF a potential target for the US Government to take...

Andrew Jackson

The Oct 2025 TOPIX FFW Rebal - $35bn of Flows To Trade

The TOPIX FFW Trade for Oct2025 is larger than any recent year and may be larger than people expect at $35bn to trade. Many buy vs sell trades have...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: AMAT Expecting Hit from China Export Restrictions May Take Shine off SPE

AMAT expecting a $710m hit to its revenue from new US export restrictions which may dampen Japan SPE somewhat. Expect another jump higher for...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Shutdown Concerns Brushed Aside as Govt Set to Close This Morning

A move higher for pharma after Pfizer made a deal with Trump, expect squeezy moves for heavily shorted JP names. A positive for memory plays, with...

Andrew Jackson

[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

The Sep 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal was not a "right-way" event for the ADD (Shift (3697)). The March 2026 rebal looks also to be a 1 IN 1 OUT affair,...

Travis Lundy

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