Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

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Yellowstone Equity

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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

Kolte Patil Developers / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY25 was a tough year for Kolte Patil due to delay in new launches which led to lower than expected pre-sales. FY25 pre-sales growth was flat YoY vs 20%+ guided.</li>
<li>Business development activity was also underwhelming at INR 4000cr vs INR 8000cr guided. This has been due to delays, suggesting that FY26 will be better led by spillover.</li>
<li>In terms of execution, 2 Million Square Feet (MSF) was delivered in FY25 leading to revenue of INR 1764cr, up 27% YoY, and EBITDA of 227cr, up 252% YoY.</li>
</ul>


FY25 was a tough year for Kolte Patil due to delay in new launches which led to lower than expected pre-sales. FY25 pre-sales growth was flat YoY vs 20%+ guided.
Business development activity was also underwhelming at INR 4000cr vs INR 8000cr guided. This has been due to delays, suggesting that FY26 will be better led by spillover.
In terms of execution, 2 Million Square Feet (MSF) was delivered in FY25 leading to revenue of INR 1764cr, up 27% YoY, and EBITDA of 227cr, up 252% YoY.


Kolte Patil: FY25 Was Tough But FY26 Is Poised To Be Strong

<ul>
<li>Kolte Patil's Q3FY25 performance update's key highlight was acquisition of a 22 acre joint development project with topline potential worth INR 4000cr representing saleable area of 5 Million Square Feet.</li>
<li>Q3FY25 pre-sales was not as robust as approval of new projects got delayed in Mumbai due to elections. However, Kolte Patil has guided to cover this up in early FY26.</li>
<li>Even with the delay, Kolte Patil is projecting to close FY25 pre-sales at INR 3000cr+ (vs INR 3500cr guided), which implies that Q4FY25 pre-sales could be INR 850cr+.</li>
</ul>


Kolte Patil's Q3FY25 performance update's key highlight was acquisition of a 22 acre joint development project with topline potential worth INR 4000cr representing saleable area of 5 Million Square Feet.
Q3FY25 pre-sales was not as robust as approval of new projects got delayed in Mumbai due to elections. However, Kolte Patil has guided to cover this up in early FY26.
Even with the delay, Kolte Patil is projecting to close FY25 pre-sales at INR 3000cr+ (vs INR 3500cr guided), which implies that Q4FY25 pre-sales could be INR 850cr+.


Kolte Patil: Q3FY25 Performance and Promoter Change Update

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

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Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone (BX US)</a> is investing INR 1,800 crore to acquire a 66% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kolte-patil-developers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6819:1" rel="noopener">Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN)</a>, marking its first big move into India’s residential real estate market.</li>
<li>This deal signals rising institutional interest in India’s housing sector and sets the stage for a potential residential REIT, similar to Blackstone’s office REIT playbook.</li>
<li>The residential segment, long seen as fragmented and informal, may now see valuation re-ratings, increased M&amp;A activity, and formalization driven by global capital.</li>
</ul>



Blackstone (BX US) is investing INR 1,800 crore to acquire a 66% stake in Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN), marking its first big move into India’s residential real estate market.
This deal signals rising institutional interest in India’s housing sector and sets the stage for a potential residential REIT, similar to Blackstone’s office REIT playbook.
The residential segment, long seen as fragmented and informal, may now see valuation re-ratings, increased M&amp;A activity, and formalization driven by global capital.


Blackstone's ₹1,800 Crore Residential Bet on Kolte-Patil

<ul>
<li>Kolte Patil reported a decent Q2FY25 with highest ever quarterly pre-sales of INR 770cr, a growth of 22% YoY. Pre-sales volume corresponding to this was 1.03 MSF (Million Square Feet).</li>
<li>Notably, demand for premium projects has been strong. For H1FY25, 30% of pre-sales has come from 24K luxury segment. This compares to 12% in FY22.</li>
<li>Year-To-Date, new launch activity has been decent with the launch of 2.2 MSF of saleable area. This includes Kolte Patil's entry in Navi Mumbai with a project launch in Vashi. </li>
</ul>


Kolte Patil reported a decent Q2FY25 with highest ever quarterly pre-sales of INR 770cr, a growth of 22% YoY. Pre-sales volume corresponding to this was 1.03 MSF (Million Square Feet).
Notably, demand for premium projects has been strong. For H1FY25, 30% of pre-sales has come from 24K luxury segment. This compares to 12% in FY22.
Year-To-Date, new launch activity has been decent with the launch of 2.2 MSF of saleable area. This includes Kolte Patil's entry in Navi Mumbai with a project launch in Vashi. 


Kolte Patil: On Track as Per FY25 Guidance

<ul>
<li>Kolte Patil reported a decent Q1FY25 with pre-sales of INR 711cr. This was lower than expected, however, adjusted for weak new launch activity, it was healthy.</li>
<li>Q1FY25 pre-sales was mostly led by sustenance sales. New launches worth INR 1500cr have been initiated mostly in Q2FY25, thus will start reflecting in 2HFY25 pre-sales numbers.</li>
<li>With highest-ever quarterly collection at INR 612cr, operating cash flows has remained strong. The balance sheet remains robust with negative net debt, allowing Kolte Patil to aggressively pursue new projects.</li>
</ul>


Kolte Patil reported a decent Q1FY25 with pre-sales of INR 711cr. This was lower than expected, however, adjusted for weak new launch activity, it was healthy.
Q1FY25 pre-sales was mostly led by sustenance sales. New launches worth INR 1500cr have been initiated mostly in Q2FY25, thus will start reflecting in 2HFY25 pre-sales numbers.
With highest-ever quarterly collection at INR 612cr, operating cash flows has remained strong. The balance sheet remains robust with negative net debt, allowing Kolte Patil to aggressively pursue new projects.


Kolte Patil: New Launches Were Tepid In Q1 But FY25 Is On Track For Strong Performance

India

Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd. builds residential housing, commercial complexes, and mixed residential and commercial projects.

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Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN)

Kolte Patil: FY25 Was Tough But FY26 Is Poised To Be Strong

Kolte Patil had a tough FY25 due to delay in approvals, because of which the new launches got delayed and consequently the pre-sales achieved was...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: Q3FY25 Performance and Promoter Change Update

While Kolte Patil reported weaker than expected Q3FY25 pre-sales due to temporary delays, it is on track as per its 3-year guidance. With...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Blackstone's ₹1,800 Crore Residential Bet on Kolte-Patil

Blackstone makes INR 1800Crs bet on India's residential real estate market via Kolte Patil Majority acquisition, signaling growing institutional...

Nimish Maheshwari

Kolte Patil: On Track as Per FY25 Guidance

Kolte Patil had a muted Q1FY25, however Q2FY25 has been decent and H2FY25 is expected to be even stronger, keeping Kolte Patil on track to post...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: New Launches Were Tepid In Q1 But FY25 Is On Track For Strong Performance

Kolte Patil delivered robust pre-sales numbers despite tepid new launch activity. It is on track to deliver FY25 pre-sales of INR 3500cr, as per...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Kolte Patil: FY25 Was Tough But FY26 Is Poised To Be Strong

Kolte Patil had a tough FY25 due to delay in approvals, because of which the new launches got delayed and consequently the pre-sales achieved was...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: Q3FY25 Performance and Promoter Change Update

While Kolte Patil reported weaker than expected Q3FY25 pre-sales due to temporary delays, it is on track as per its 3-year guidance. With...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Blackstone's ₹1,800 Crore Residential Bet on Kolte-Patil

​Blackstone makes INR 1800Crs bet on India's residential real estate market via Kolte Patil Majority acquisition, signaling growing institutional...

Nimish Maheshwari

Kolte Patil: On Track as Per FY25 Guidance

Kolte Patil had a muted Q1FY25, however Q2FY25 has been decent and H2FY25 is expected to be even stronger, keeping Kolte Patil on track to post...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: New Launches Were Tepid In Q1 But FY25 Is On Track For Strong Performance

Kolte Patil delivered robust pre-sales numbers despite tepid new launch activity. It is on track to deliver FY25 pre-sales of INR 3500cr, as per...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Blackstone makes INR 1800Crs bet on India's residential real estate market via Kolte Patil Majority acquisition, signaling growing institutional...