Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

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Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

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Equity Bottom-Up

Kolte Patil Developers / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Kolte Patil reported weaker than expected Q3FY23 accounting earnings due to slight delay in arrival of OC for some projects. However, sales velocity and business development activity was robust.</li>
<li>Reported Q3FY23 earnings had weak margins due to revenue contribution from two low-margin projects.</li>
<li>Q4FY23 is on track to be strong both in terms of reported earnings (which depends on the timing of OC) and sales velocity.</li>
</ul>


Kolte Patil reported weaker than expected Q3FY23 accounting earnings due to slight delay in arrival of OC for some projects. However, sales velocity and business development activity was robust.
Reported Q3FY23 earnings had weak margins due to revenue contribution from two low-margin projects.
Q4FY23 is on track to be strong both in terms of reported earnings (which depends on the timing of OC) and sales velocity.


Kolte Patil: Q4FY23 Is All Set to Bring a Strong Close to FY23

<ul>
<li>Q2FY23 results were subdued due to delay in launch of a few new projects. </li>
<li>Lower proportion of sales from Mumbai led to decline in realization by 9% QoQ, however, this has quarterly variation and was also impacted by delay in new project launches.</li>
<li>The current quarter sales seem to be a temporary blip as most of the new projects are on track to launch in Q3FY23.</li>
</ul>


Q2FY23 results were subdued due to delay in launch of a few new projects. 
Lower proportion of sales from Mumbai led to decline in realization by 9% QoQ, however, this has quarterly variation and was also impacted by delay in new project launches.
The current quarter sales seem to be a temporary blip as most of the new projects are on track to launch in Q3FY23.


Kolte Patil: Temporary Blip in Q2FY23 Earnings; On Track for a Strong FY23

<ul>
<li>As highlighted in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kolte-patil-developers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6819:1" rel="noopener">Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN)</a> is on track to post excellent FY23 earnings.</li>
<li>While new project launches were subdued in Q1FY23 with just one launch, Kolte Patil was able to post decent Q1FY23 sales volume of 0.61 MSF led by sustenance sales.</li>
<li>Kolte Patil has guided to be on track to deliver 3.3+ MSF in FY23. More importantly, it is on track to acquire new projects with topline worth INR 7000cr.</li>
</ul>


As highlighted in our previous note, Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN) is on track to post excellent FY23 earnings.
While new project launches were subdued in Q1FY23 with just one launch, Kolte Patil was able to post decent Q1FY23 sales volume of 0.61 MSF led by sustenance sales.
Kolte Patil has guided to be on track to deliver 3.3+ MSF in FY23. More importantly, it is on track to acquire new projects with topline worth INR 7000cr.


Kolte Patil: On Track for an Excellent FY23

<ul>
<li>Kolte Patil reported a strong FY22 and guided for even a stronger FY23. FY22 closed with highest ever sales value and collections.</li>
<li>FY23 is set to fire on all cylinders - new launches, business development aka new project acquisitions and delivery of under-construction projects.</li>
<li>FY23 sales value is expected to be 2200cr, implying PAT potential of 220cr.  At current market cap of 1800cr, Kolte Patil is trading cheap at 8x P/E per FY23E PAT.</li>
</ul>


Kolte Patil reported a strong FY22 and guided for even a stronger FY23. FY22 closed with highest ever sales value and collections.
FY23 is set to fire on all cylinders - new launches, business development aka new project acquisitions and delivery of under-construction projects.
FY23 sales value is expected to be 2200cr, implying PAT potential of 220cr.  At current market cap of 1800cr, Kolte Patil is trading cheap at 8x P/E per FY23E PAT.


Kolte Patil: Reported Stellar FY22 Earnings; All Is Set To Post Even Better FY23

<ul>
<li>Residential real estate sector continues to be on an upcycle in line with our thesis. Kolte Patil is benefitting from this trend and reported record quarterly pre-sales of INR 561cr.</li>
<li>Kolte Patil continues to maintain its FY22 guidance at 2.5mm+ sq.ft. sales and FY23 projection at 3mm+ sq.ft. alongside continued improvement in realization as the contribution from Mumbai increases. </li>
<li>Given strong balance sheet, Kolte Patil has been also bidding for new projects and is confident that it may acquire a large new project in Mumbai in the near-term.</li>
</ul>


Residential real estate sector continues to be on an upcycle in line with our thesis. Kolte Patil is benefitting from this trend and reported record quarterly pre-sales of INR 561cr.
Kolte Patil continues to maintain its FY22 guidance at 2.5mm+ sq.ft. sales and FY23 projection at 3mm+ sq.ft. alongside continued improvement in realization as the contribution from Mumbai increases. 
Given strong balance sheet, Kolte Patil has been also bidding for new projects and is confident that it may acquire a large new project in Mumbai in the near-term.


Kolte Patil: Record Pre-Sales In Q3FY22; New Project Acquisition Likely in Mumbai

India

Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd. builds residential housing, commercial complexes, and mixed residential and commercial projects.

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Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN)

Kolte Patil: Q4FY23 Is All Set to Bring a Strong Close to FY23

An investment in Kolte Patil offers an upside potential of 50%. Kolte Patil is on track to post a strong FY23 and is guiding for another 25-30% pre...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: Temporary Blip in Q2FY23 Earnings; On Track for a Strong FY23

KPDL has significant re-rating potential led by strong earnings for H2FY23. It is on track to post INR 180cr+ of PAT for FY23. At current...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: On Track for an Excellent FY23

Kolte Patil is on track to post a strong FY23 in line with our prior note. It is expected to fire on cylinders - sales velocity, deliveries and new...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: Reported Stellar FY22 Earnings; All Is Set To Post Even Better FY23

At <2x P/B and with a focus on high-quality residential real estate development in India, Kolte Patil has an upside potential of 75%. Its FY23...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: Record Pre-Sales In Q3FY22; New Project Acquisition Likely in Mumbai

Key trigger for Kolte Patil is its increasing focus on Mumbai. It is close to acquiring a large new project in Mumbai. It also reported record...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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