Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.</li>
<li>Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.</li>
<li>Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.</li>
</ul>


Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.
Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.
Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.


Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

<ul>
<li>Gains for Micron on the potential for DDR5 price hikes should help lift <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micronics-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">6871 Micronics</a> after yesterdays excessive weakness.</li>
<li>More cheer for US home builders after Smith Douglas number beat, adding to the upside story for Sumi Forestry and Selkisui House.</li>
<li>Defence related plays should remain in the spotlight with Kishida replacement candidates Ishiba and Kono both ex-defence ministers.</li>
</ul>


Gains for Micron on the potential for DDR5 price hikes should help lift 6871 Micronics after yesterdays excessive weakness.
More cheer for US home builders after Smith Douglas number beat, adding to the upside story for Sumi Forestry and Selkisui House.
Defence related plays should remain in the spotlight with Kishida replacement candidates Ishiba and Kono both ex-defence ministers.


Japan Morning Connection: Micronics, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy

<ul>
<li>US rebound lacks breadth, and while tech should be strong to start it may be too early to predict an extended rally off the lows in Japan after yesterday's gains.</li>
<li>An SMCI after-market miss is dulling the mood which may also dent sentiment for AI/SPE related to start.</li>
<li>A good print from CAT sets a positive tone for the likes of 6301 Komatsu and 6326 Kubota who were both sold heavily in the recent panic.</li>
</ul>


US rebound lacks breadth, and while tech should be strong to start it may be too early to predict an extended rally off the lows in Japan after yesterday's gains.
An SMCI after-market miss is dulling the mood which may also dent sentiment for AI/SPE related to start.
A good print from CAT sets a positive tone for the likes of 6301 Komatsu and 6326 Kubota who were both sold heavily in the recent panic.


Japan Morning Connection: 6301 JP, 6326 JP, 2503 JP

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.</li>
<li>In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.</li>
<li>This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.
In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.
This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates


Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Komatsu's operating profits for FY3/24 of Y607 billion (+24% YoY) surpassed estimates on strong U.S. equipment sales</li>
<li>Komatsu guides for FY3/25 operating profits of ¥557 billion (-8.3% YoY), assuming ¥140/US$</li>
<li>We believe that the market remains too focused on the near-term growth slowdown, while we believe that Komatsu is attractively priced at under 10x EV/EBIT</li>
</ul>


Komatsu's operating profits for FY3/24 of Y607 billion (+24% YoY) surpassed estimates on strong U.S. equipment sales
Komatsu guides for FY3/25 operating profits of ¥557 billion (-8.3% YoY), assuming ¥140/US$
We believe that the market remains too focused on the near-term growth slowdown, while we believe that Komatsu is attractively priced at under 10x EV/EBIT


Komatsu (6301) | 6% TSR and Clean Energy Winner

Japan

KOMATSU LTD. manufactures and sells construction and mining machinery, including excavators, bulldozers, and wheel loaders.  The Company, operating on a global scale, also produces forklift trucks and engineering equipment such as press system.

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Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Micronics, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy

Micron's gains from potential DDR5 price hikes could boost Micronics; Defence-related stocks are in focus with Kishida replacement candidates both...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: 6301 JP, 6326 JP, 2503 JP

US rebound lacks breadth, tech may be strong but early to predict extended rally in Japan. SMCI after-market miss may dent sentiment, CAT's good...

Andrew Jackson

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Komatsu (6301) | 6% TSR and Clean Energy Winner

Komatsu stands to benefit from the global shift towards clean energy technologies, which drive demand for critical minerals essential in their...

Mark Chadwick

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Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

​Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Micronics, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy

​Micron's gains from potential DDR5 price hikes could boost Micronics; Defence-related stocks are in focus with Kishida replacement candidates both...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: 6301 JP, 6326 JP, 2503 JP

​US rebound lacks breadth, tech may be strong but early to predict extended rally in Japan. SMCI after-market miss may dent sentiment, CAT's good...

Andrew Jackson

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Komatsu (6301) | 6% TSR and Clean Energy Winner

Komatsu stands to benefit from the global shift towards clean energy technologies, which drive demand for critical minerals essential in their...

Mark Chadwick

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Micron's gains from potential DDR5 price hikes could boost Micronics; Defence-related stocks are in focus with Kishida replacement candidates both...

US rebound lacks breadth, tech may be strong but early to predict extended rally in Japan. SMCI after-market miss may dent sentiment, CAT's good...