Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The annual index changes for the EURO STOXX 50 Index were announced yesterday. </li>
<li>There will be two ADDs and two DELs. Collectively, the ADDs could see index inflows of ~US$2.15bn while the DELs could experience index outflows of ~US$1.05bn.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at the index flow expectations, historical performance of EURO STOXX 50 Rebal events, and recent performance of the current index change names.</li>
</ul>


The annual index changes for the EURO STOXX 50 Index were announced yesterday. 
There will be two ADDs and two DELs. Collectively, the ADDs could see index inflows of ~US$2.15bn while the DELs could experience index outflows of ~US$1.05bn.
In this insight, we take a closer look at the index flow expectations, historical performance of EURO STOXX 50 Rebal events, and recent performance of the current index change names.


EURO STOXX 50 Sep 22 Rebal: Massive Flows for Nordea Bank, Nokia, Kone, & Philips

<ul>
<li>The EURO STOXX 50 Index is one of the most highly-watched indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/euro-stoxx-50-quiddity-leaderboard-for-sep-22-eurozone-s-annual-big-impact-rebal-trades" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:72736" rel="noopener">Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone's Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades</a>, we looked at the Potential ADDs/DELs and the historical performance of Rebalance Events. </li>
<li>With less than a week left until the Reference date, we take a final look at the rankings in this insight.</li>
</ul>


The EURO STOXX 50 Index is one of the most highly-watched indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
In Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone's Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades, we looked at the Potential ADDs/DELs and the historical performance of Rebalance Events. 
With less than a week left until the Reference date, we take a final look at the rankings in this insight.


EURO STOXX 50 Quiddity Leaderboard: Two Potential ADDs with ~US$1bn Flows Each

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 24 March, the EGM defeated both company and 3D Investment proposals. That night, a leak in the Nikkei said the company would pursue privatisation measures. Supply side interest. Check. </li>
<li>That same day, Bain signed a "Confirmation Agreement" with lead Toshiba shareholder Effissimo would tender into a Bain Tender Offer. Demand Side interest confirmed. Check. </li>
<li>Now we have a 3D public letter to the Board demanding 3 measures before the AGM. </li>
</ul>


On 24 March, the EGM defeated both company and 3D Investment proposals. That night, a leak in the Nikkei said the company would pursue privatisation measures. Supply side interest. Check. 
That same day, Bain signed a "Confirmation Agreement" with lead Toshiba shareholder Effissimo would tender into a Bain Tender Offer. Demand Side interest confirmed. Check. 
Now we have a 3D public letter to the Board demanding 3 measures before the AGM. 


Toshiba (6502) - 3D Writes Another Letter

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zardoya-otis-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21307:1" rel="noopener">Zardoya Otis SA (ZOT SM)</a> , a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otis-worldwide-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34334:1" rel="noopener">Otis Worldwide Corp (OTIS US)</a>, used to be a classic in the Spanish stock market for income investors. Investing in Zardoya has been synonymous with several dividend payments year after year without interruption for three decades. The lift company never failed in its quarterly dividend payments since 1973, with an average payout of 92% over the last 30 years.
This is about to change. OPAL Spanish Holdings, owned by Otis, made on 23 September an opportunistic €7/share cash offer to acquire the remaining 49.9% of Zardoya Otis it does not own for c. €1.6 bn. Its stated intention is to delist Zardoya Otis, of which Otis has been a shareholder since 1972. The share price gained over 31% to close at €7.03, just above the offer, the highest price hike since listing in 1974.
The offer price will be reduced to €6.93/share as a result of the €0.074 dividend announced by Zardoya Otis, whose payment is scheduled for 11 October. The implied equity value is €3,293 mn. The offer price represents a premium of 30.8% over the prior day's close and 28.9% to the 1-month VWAP, 14x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 22x Fwd P/E (vs. a 10-year average of 23.8x).
The deal makes sense, since, although Otis already consolidated Zardoya Otis globally, the latter, safe from any unsolicited bid, traded at multiples below the parent (16.6x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 27.8x Fwd P/E) and other competitors (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kone-oyj" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21766:1" rel="noopener">Kone OYJ (KNEBV FH)</a> 18.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 30.1x Fwd P/E and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schindler-holding-ag-a63e9700-2075-4f83-952a-d3e71b14974b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25024:1" rel="noopener">Schindler Holding AG (SCHN SW)</a> 16x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 29.5x Fwd P/E) despite having higher operating margins. Cheaper financing may have helped Otis to decide launching the takeover.
<div id="cuerpo_noticia" aria-describedby="La opa de Otis a Zardoya borrará de la bolsa un dividendo clásico del 92% del beneficio">
Otis does not need Spanish government approval and will activate the delisting if it comes to own 75% of the share capital. The second largest shareholder is the Zardoya family (11.345% stake) that has not commented on the offer (they would cash over €372 mn at the current offer price). There is also a large number of minority shareholders.
The Zardoya family is in the driving seat, in my view, as Otis needs their shares tendered to initiate the squeeze-out procedure.
True that the offer is in cash and represents a premium of 25% over the average price of 2021 and 3.5% over that average of 2019; moreover, the shares of Zardoya Otis had not reached €7 since 2018. Nevertheless, despite the premium offered, it is a cheap offer, below the multiples of Otis Worldwide Corp, Kone and Schindler (median 16.6x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 29.5x Fwd P/E). Based on the comparables median EV/Fwd EBITDA, the implied equity value for Zardoya Otis would be €8.3/share.
Gross spread is -0.3%. Shares have been liquid since offer announcement. A sweetened offer is likely, as the founding family of Zardoya will ask for a better price (probably around €7.5) to give up on their yearly €15 mn paycheck. I recommend Long ZOT SM. 
The risk would be to stay in what has traditionally been an illiquid stock, in which Otis already has control and which could later be excluded.
</div>

Zardoya Otis SA (ZOT SM) , a subsidiary of Otis Worldwide Corp (OTIS US), used to be a classic in the Spanish stock market for income investors. Investing in Zardoya has been synonymous with several dividend payments year after year without interruption for three decades. The lift company never failed in its quarterly dividend payments since 1973, with an average payout of 92% over the last 30 years.
This is about to change. OPAL Spanish Holdings, owned by Otis, made on 23 September an opportunistic €7/share cash offer to acquire the remaining 49.9% of Zardoya Otis it does not own for c. €1.6 bn. Its stated intention is to delist Zardoya Otis, of which Otis has been a shareholder since 1972. The share price gained over 31% to close at €7.03, just above the offer, the highest price hike since listing in 1974.
The offer price will be reduced to €6.93/share as a result of the €0.074 dividend announced by Zardoya Otis, whose payment is scheduled for 11 October. The implied equity value is €3,293 mn. The offer price represents a premium of 30.8% over the prior day's close and 28.9% to the 1-month VWAP, 14x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 22x Fwd P/E (vs. a 10-year average of 23.8x).
The deal makes sense, since, although Otis already consolidated Zardoya Otis globally, the latter, safe from any unsolicited bid, traded at multiples below the parent (16.6x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 27.8x Fwd P/E) and other competitors (Kone OYJ (KNEBV FH) 18.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 30.1x Fwd P/E and Schindler Holding AG (SCHN SW) 16x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 29.5x Fwd P/E) despite having higher operating margins. Cheaper financing may have helped Otis to decide launching the takeover.

Otis does not need Spanish government approval and will activate the delisting if it comes to own 75% of the share capital. The second largest shareholder is the Zardoya family (11.345% stake) that has not commented on the offer (they would cash over €372 mn at the current offer price). There is also a large number of minority shareholders.
The Zardoya family is in the driving seat, in my view, as Otis needs their shares tendered to initiate the squeeze-out procedure.
True that the offer is in cash and represents a premium of 25% over the average price of 2021 and 3.5% over that average of 2019; moreover, the shares of Zardoya Otis had not reached €7 since 2018. Nevertheless, despite the premium offered, it is a cheap offer, below the multiples of Otis Worldwide Corp, Kone and Schindler (median 16.6x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 29.5x Fwd P/E). Based on the comparables median EV/Fwd EBITDA, the implied equity value for Zardoya Otis would be €8.3/share.
Gross spread is -0.3%. Shares have been liquid since offer announcement. A sweetened offer is likely, as the founding family of Zardoya will ask for a better price (probably around €7.5) to give up on their yearly €15 mn paycheck. I recommend Long ZOT SM. 
The risk would be to stay in what has traditionally been an illiquid stock, in which Otis already has control and which could later be excluded.


Otis/Zardoya Otis: Lifting the Minorities

Last Friday, mid-cap specialist elevator maker (in the top ten globally) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11686:1" rel="noopener">Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)</a> announced a <a href="https://www.fujitec.com/common/fjhp/doc/top_global/document/irnews/2139/20201204_Fujitec%20Co.,%20Ltd.%20Announces%20Future%20Strategic%20Direction%20Plan.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Future Strategy Direction Plan</a> which focused on "priority business areas in the medium-and-long-term, the Company's medium- and long-term strategic targets, and measures aimed at strengthening its governance structure. This sounds kind of jargon-y. Some of it certainly is. But there is actually more than that under the cover, and it is designed to mollify activists who have pursued the company for years. The stock has hardly reacted. Some details clearly kick the can but there is a timer set for summer 2022. More below the fold.

Last Friday, mid-cap specialist elevator maker (in the top ten globally) Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) announced a Future Strategy Direction Plan which focused on "priority business areas in the medium-and-long-term, the Company's medium- and long-term strategic targets, and measures aimed at strengthening its governance structure. This sounds kind of jargon-y. Some of it certainly is. But there is actually more than that under the cover, and it is designed to mollify activists who have pursued the company for years. The stock has hardly reacted. Some details clearly kick the can but there is a timer set for summer 2022. More below the fold. 

Activist Pressure FINALLY Works on Fujitec (6406)- Going Up? (Albeit Slowly)

Finland

Kone Oyj provides solutions for the installation, maintenance, and modernization of elevators and escalators and the maintenance of automatic building doors.

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Kone OYJ (KNEBV FH)

EURO STOXX 50 Sep 22 Rebal: Massive Flows for Nordea Bank, Nokia, Kone, & Philips

The Long ADDs Short DELETEs trade seems interesting because the average impact on both size is significant and incoming momentum is strong.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

EURO STOXX 50 Quiddity Leaderboard: Two Potential ADDs with ~US$1bn Flows Each

I expect 2 ADDs with ~US$1bn inflows each and 2 DELs with ~US$0.5bn in outflows each. While flows are significant, the LONG ADDs-SHORT DELs Trade...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Toshiba (6502) - 3D Writes Another Letter

Toshiba (6502) has been racking up its "positive newsflow points" in the last several days. This may be the last near-term shoe to fall.

Travis Lundy

Otis/Zardoya Otis: Lifting the Minorities

A sweetened offer is in my view likely, as the founding family of Zardoya (11.34% stake) will ask for a better price (probably around €7.5) to give...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Activist Pressure FINALLY Works on Fujitec (6406)- Going Up? (Albeit Slowly)

Fujitec activist pressure finally seems to have shown results as the company buckles, and undertakes to pursue some activist demands. A small win....

Travis Lundy

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