Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, the Court of Appeal of Arnhem-Leeuwarden ruled that online grocery delivery companies like e.g., Picnic and Flink, must comply with the collective labour agreement (CLA) for the supermarket sector.</li>
<li>The court determined that businesses selling supermarket products online and physically handling, sorting, and delivering them to consumers are effectively operating as (virtual) supermarkets.</li>
<li>Therefore, they fall under the same labor regulations as traditional supermarkets.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, the Court of Appeal of Arnhem-Leeuwarden ruled that online grocery delivery companies like e.g., Picnic and Flink, must comply with the collective labour agreement (CLA) for the supermarket sector.
The court determined that businesses selling supermarket products online and physically handling, sorting, and delivering them to consumers are effectively operating as (virtual) supermarkets.
Therefore, they fall under the same labor regulations as traditional supermarkets.


<ul>
<li>Having digested yesterday’s published 1Q25 solid set of results and information that was shared during the company’s earnings call, we decided to stick to our neutral stance on the stock.</li>
<li>Although the company has proven to be rather resilient and performed better than expected in the current uncertain environment, we fear that the real test still lies ahead: the potential impact of the trade tariffs still has to kick in.</li>
<li>After all, a lot of the tariffs that were announced on ‘Liberation Day’ have been postponed for 90 days.</li>
</ul>


Having digested yesterday’s published 1Q25 solid set of results and information that was shared during the company’s earnings call, we decided to stick to our neutral stance on the stock.
Although the company has proven to be rather resilient and performed better than expected in the current uncertain environment, we fear that the real test still lies ahead: the potential impact of the trade tariffs still has to kick in.
After all, a lot of the tariffs that were announced on ‘Liberation Day’ have been postponed for 90 days.


<ul>
<li>AkzoNobel is closely examining the potential acquisition of BASF’s coatings division, valued at approximately EUR 6bn, according to three anonymous sources cited by Dutch financial daily Het Financieele Dagblad (“FD”).</li>
<li>Strategically, BASF’s automotive coatings and metal pretreatment operations would complement AkzoNobel’s existing industrial coatings business.</li>
<li>However, a significant hurdle remains: securing shareholder approval for such a major transaction, given AkzoNobel’s current market value of EUR 9.5bn and an adjusted leverage ratio of 2.8 times. </li>
</ul>


AkzoNobel is closely examining the potential acquisition of BASF’s coatings division, valued at approximately EUR 6bn, according to three anonymous sources cited by Dutch financial daily Het Financieele Dagblad (“FD”).
Strategically, BASF’s automotive coatings and metal pretreatment operations would complement AkzoNobel’s existing industrial coatings business.
However, a significant hurdle remains: securing shareholder approval for such a major transaction, given AkzoNobel’s current market value of EUR 9.5bn and an adjusted leverage ratio of 2.8 times. 


Equity Bottom-Up

Axalta Coating Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora: EUR 5.7bn in pension buy-outs so far this year • Unilever | sells Zwitsal to Royal Sanders • Dutch telcos | DELTA Fiber opens new growth avenue through Open Dutch Fiber • Allegro | post earnings call comment</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora: EUR 5.7bn in pension buy-outs so far this year • Unilever | sells Zwitsal to Royal Sanders • Dutch telcos | DELTA Fiber opens new growth avenue through Open Dutch Fiber • Allegro | post earnings call comment

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd - What's News in Amsterdam

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Netherlands

Koninklijke KPN NV provides telecommunications services throughout the Netherlands.  The Company provides local, long distance, international, and mobile telecommunications services, voice-mail, call forwarding, ISDN Internet lines, faxing, and communications services for businesses and individuals.  KPN offers mobile telecommunications through E-Plus in Germany and BASE in Belgium.

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Koninklijke KPN (KPN NA)

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

The court determined that businesses selling supermarket products online and physically handling, sorting, and delivering them to consumers are...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Having digested yesterday’s published 1Q25 solid set of results and information that was shared during the company’s earnings call, we decided to...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Strategically, BASF’s automotive coatings and metal pretreatment operations would complement AkzoNobel’s existing industrial coatings business.

The IDEA!

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora:...

The IDEA!

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research

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