Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The official announcement from KRX regarding the KOSPI 200 rebalancing rule change is expected to be released shortly after the end of October.</li>
<li>The rule change will take effect beginning with this year's December rebalancing. An official from KRX has communicated that we can confidently regard this as confirmed. </li>
<li>It is essential to be aware that during this December review, there exists a significant potential for generating substantial price fluctuations within a narrow timeframe.</li>
</ul>


The official announcement from KRX regarding the KOSPI 200 rebalancing rule change is expected to be released shortly after the end of October.
The rule change will take effect beginning with this year's December rebalancing. An official from KRX has communicated that we can confidently regard this as confirmed. 
It is essential to be aware that during this December review, there exists a significant potential for generating substantial price fluctuations within a narrow timeframe.


Information Received Through KRX Officials Regarding Changes in the KOSPI 200 Methodology

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> closed down last week (CC=-1) and is currently down this week as well (CC=-2 to be confirmed on Friday), currently approaching Q3 support at 324.</li>
<li>Based on Market Reversal Matrix time/price models, if this week the KOSPI closes down at &lt;=324, the index will have a &gt;75% probability to close the next week up.</li>
<li>Going LONG is not without risk at this stage: this pattern is not bullish, the correction could reach &lt;300, based on the models, but the index is getting OVERSOLD.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 INDEX closed down last week (CC=-1) and is currently down this week as well (CC=-2 to be confirmed on Friday), currently approaching Q3 support at 324.
Based on Market Reversal Matrix time/price models, if this week the KOSPI closes down at &lt;=324, the index will have a &gt;75% probability to close the next week up.
Going LONG is not without risk at this stage: this pattern is not bullish, the correction could reach &lt;300, based on the models, but the index is getting OVERSOLD.


<ul>
<li>The proposal to increase NPS's annual target investment return rate by 1%p by 2028. A rough mathematical estimate suggests the necessity of an additional investment of nearly ₩60T until 2028.</li>
<li>It augments the overall investment volume in local stocks to ₩200T. This projection implies an annual net purchase of approximately ₩12T from the forthcoming year through 2028.</li>
<li>Consequently, this matter is currently among the most captivating topics in the Korean local market, and efforts are underway to identify the sectors and stocks that stand to benefit.</li>
</ul>


The proposal to increase NPS's annual target investment return rate by 1%p by 2028. A rough mathematical estimate suggests the necessity of an additional investment of nearly ₩60T until 2028.
It augments the overall investment volume in local stocks to ₩200T. This projection implies an annual net purchase of approximately ₩12T from the forthcoming year through 2028.
Consequently, this matter is currently among the most captivating topics in the Korean local market, and efforts are underway to identify the sectors and stocks that stand to benefit.


Korea NPS's Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> WEEKLY did rise last week and is approaching OVERBOUGHT territory based on the current short-term trend pattern (Q3 resistance is at 346).</li>
<li>The current pattern is bearish, but if the market gains momentum and rallies for 2 more weeks, it could reach 357 during the 3rd week up (not earlier).</li>
<li>The alternative scenario, a better fit for this bearish pattern, is that the index starts to pull back this week, or remains weak this week and falls the next.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 INDEX WEEKLY did rise last week and is approaching OVERBOUGHT territory based on the current short-term trend pattern (Q3 resistance is at 346).
The current pattern is bearish, but if the market gains momentum and rallies for 2 more weeks, it could reach 357 during the 3rd week up (not earlier).
The alternative scenario, a better fit for this bearish pattern, is that the index starts to pull back this week, or remains weak this week and falls the next.


EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> last week started to rally, so we want to look at WEEKLY resistance levels to evaluate where the current rally could end.</li>
<li>MRM Resistance Levels where the rally could stop are: 339, 348, 356.</li>
<li>Based on the current MRM pattern reading we expect the index to either roll down this week, or to rally for +2 more weeks (CC=+4) and then go down.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 INDEX last week started to rally, so we want to look at WEEKLY resistance levels to evaluate where the current rally could end.
MRM Resistance Levels where the rally could stop are: 339, 348, 356.
Based on the current MRM pattern reading we expect the index to either roll down this week, or to rally for +2 more weeks (CC=+4) and then go down.


EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Approaching Resistance

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Information Received Through KRX Officials Regarding Changes in the KOSPI 200 Methodology

I had a conversation with KRX officials regarding KOSPI 200 screening rule changes, and this post provides the responses I received from them.

Sanghyun Park

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Getting OVERSOLD

The KOSPI 200 Index is down 2 weeks and approaching Q3 support. The index is OVERSOLD. If it closes <=324 this week, the probability of closing up...

Nico Rosti

Korea NPS's Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know

This post explores one of the most captivating topics in Korea at this point from a market-wide flow perspective: funds influx into the local stock...

Sanghyun Park

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...

Nico Rosti

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Approaching Resistance

The KOSPI 200 is rallying, check MRM resistance levels to evaluate how far it can go before rolling down. The index should either decline this week...

Nico Rosti

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Information Received Through KRX Officials Regarding Changes in the KOSPI 200 Methodology

I had a conversation with KRX officials regarding KOSPI 200 screening rule changes, and this post provides the responses I received from them.

Sanghyun Park

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Getting OVERSOLD

​The KOSPI 200 Index is down 2 weeks and approaching Q3 support. The index is OVERSOLD. If it closes <=324 this week, the probability of closing up...

Nico Rosti

Korea NPS's Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know

This post explores one of the most captivating topics in Korea at this point from a market-wide flow perspective: funds influx into the local stock...

Sanghyun Park

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

​The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...

Nico Rosti

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Approaching Resistance

The KOSPI 200 is rallying, check MRM resistance levels to evaluate how far it can go before rolling down. The index should either decline this week...

Nico Rosti

The KOSPI 200 Index is down 2 weeks and approaching Q3 support. The index is OVERSOLD. If it closes <=324 this week, the probability of closing up...

The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...