Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today’s selloff spooked the ruling party, prompting top lawmakers to signal tax tweak talks less than 24hrs after rollout — and they’re clearly watching the tape.</li>
<li>Cap gains threshold likely gets bumped to ₩3–5bn. STT hike stays. Div tax top rate may drop from 35% to 25% amid internal party push.</li>
<li>President Lee’s focused on pragmatism—cutting household debt and boosting corporate liquidity. Expect the tax narrative to pivot next week, sending local market sentiment in a new direction from Friday’s tape.</li>
</ul>


Today’s selloff spooked the ruling party, prompting top lawmakers to signal tax tweak talks less than 24hrs after rollout — and they’re clearly watching the tape.
Cap gains threshold likely gets bumped to ₩3–5bn. STT hike stays. Div tax top rate may drop from 35% to 25% amid internal party push.
President Lee’s focused on pragmatism—cutting household debt and boosting corporate liquidity. Expect the tax narrative to pivot next week, sending local market sentiment in a new direction from Friday’s tape.


Tax Pivot in Play: Ruling Party Rethink Could Flip Market Narrative

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. </li>
<li>Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.</li>
<li>There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.</li>
</ul>


Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.


Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

<ul>
<li>Martial law has been declared 11 times since 1945, but this is the first since Korea’s post-‘90 democratization.</li>
<li>The Martial Law Command's first proclamation blocks parliament, raising legal questions about its constitutionality and making any immediate attempt to end martial law uncertain.</li>
<li>Defense and telecom stocks could outperform short-term due to martial law, making them strong trading targets to watch.</li>
</ul>


Martial law has been declared 11 times since 1945, but this is the first since Korea’s post-‘90 democratization.
The Martial Law Command's first proclamation blocks parliament, raising legal questions about its constitutionality and making any immediate attempt to end martial law uncertain.
Defense and telecom stocks could outperform short-term due to martial law, making them strong trading targets to watch.


Breaking: Korea Drops Martial Law, Local Markets in Turmoil—What’s the Short-Term Trade Play Here?

<ul>
<li>MMAS prioritizes dividends over low-PBR, key to government's Value-up momentum. Despite initial market disappointment, dividend stocks rebounded, underscoring continued investor interest.</li>
<li>Government officials are collecting historic dividend data to simulate separate taxation impact of dividend income, likely to be included in July's tax reform bill for National Assembly approval.</li>
<li>Local institutions focus on dividend-centric Value-up trading, targeting stocks with high cash reserves and dividends. Strategy needed to manage market impact pre-tax reform bill in July.</li>
</ul>


MMAS prioritizes dividends over low-PBR, key to government's Value-up momentum. Despite initial market disappointment, dividend stocks rebounded, underscoring continued investor interest.
Government officials are collecting historic dividend data to simulate separate taxation impact of dividend income, likely to be included in July's tax reform bill for National Assembly approval.
Local institutions focus on dividend-centric Value-up trading, targeting stocks with high cash reserves and dividends. Strategy needed to manage market impact pre-tax reform bill in July.


Local Institutions' Value-Up Momentum Moves: Watch the July Tax Reform Bill

<ul>
<li>Today, NPS made the final decision to introduce a reference portfolio. The critical point is the increase in risky assets from 56% to 65%, also decided at today's meeting.</li>
<li>Initially, overseas equity was prioritized, but recent forecasts suggest significant potential in increasing local equity, aligning with the value-up policy.</li>
<li>Monitoring NPS's execution plan, including allocation and timing by asset class, is vital to gauge inflow size, especially for Value-up beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


Today, NPS made the final decision to introduce a reference portfolio. The critical point is the increase in risky assets from 56% to 65%, also decided at today's meeting.
Initially, overseas equity was prioritized, but recent forecasts suggest significant potential in increasing local equity, aligning with the value-up policy.
Monitoring NPS's execution plan, including allocation and timing by asset class, is vital to gauge inflow size, especially for Value-up beneficiaries.


NPS Confirms Reference Portfolio & Risky Assets Upweight: Implications for Value-Up Stocks

South Korea

The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Note: The preferred shares are excluded in calculating the KOSPI Index from June 14, 2002. 

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Tax Pivot in Play: Ruling Party Rethink Could Flip Market Narrative

Jeong Cheong-rae, new ruling party boss, just called for a full reset on the tax revamp—huge. Focus is on CGT threshold for majors and top rate for...

Sanghyun Park

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Short selling in Korea commences from Monday. There will be a lot of interest in shorting stocks/sectors depending on how they have performed since...

Brian Freitas

Breaking: Korea Drops Martial Law, Local Markets in Turmoil—What’s the Short-Term Trade Play Here?

Breaking news: Korea has declared martial law, causing local markets to be in turmoil—what’s the short-term trading strategy moving forward?

Sanghyun Park

Local Institutions' Value-Up Momentum Moves: Watch the July Tax Reform Bill

This post delves into local institutions' focus on dividends over low-PBR in Value-up momentum trading, with anticipation surrounding the July tax...

Sanghyun Park

NPS Confirms Reference Portfolio & Risky Assets Upweight: Implications for Value-Up Stocks

This post outlines Korea NPS's decision to adopt the reference portfolio, raising risky assets allocation weight by 9%p to 65%, and its...

Sanghyun Park