Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently eight pairtrade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently eight pairtrade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Sep 2026)

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finserv-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5669:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
 Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finserv-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5669:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> targets a 4% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

 Highlight: Going long Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) and short Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) targets a 4% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) Vs Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN): Fourth Stat Arb Signal for a Proven Pair

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 100bp rate cut cycle is transmitting unevenly, with Private Banks raising loan spreads to 415bp while PSBs cut more sharply, compressing margins. </li>
<li>This divergence is reshaping profitability, with NIMs under pressure through Q2–Q3 FY26 and relief delayed by slow deposit rate repricing.</li>
<li>Margin recovery now hinges on H2FY26 onwards, aided by CRR liquidity, easing funding costs, and credit cost normalization.</li>
</ul>


The 100bp rate cut cycle is transmitting unevenly, with Private Banks raising loan spreads to 415bp while PSBs cut more sharply, compressing margins. 
This divergence is reshaping profitability, with NIMs under pressure through Q2–Q3 FY26 and relief delayed by slow deposit rate repricing.
Margin recovery now hinges on H2FY26 onwards, aided by CRR liquidity, easing funding costs, and credit cost normalization.


Bank Margins Under Pressure: Navigating the Rate Cut Ripple

<ul>
<li>The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.</li>
<li>This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.</li>
<li>This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks' lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26). </li>
</ul>


The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.
This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.
This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks' lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26). 


Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish</li>
<li>200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.


Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

India

Kotak Mahindra Bank is an Indian banking and financial services company that offers a comprehensive range of banking products and financial services to corporate and retail customers. These services include personal finance, investment banking, life insurance, wealth management, consumer banking, commercial banking, and treasury operations. The company provides deposit accounts, various loans, credit and debit cards, mutual funds, and insurance plans. Headquartered in Mumbai, India, the company was founded in 1985 as Kotak Mahindra Finance Limited and received its banking license in 2003.

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Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Sep 2026)

Discover eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) Vs Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN): Fourth Stat Arb Signal for a Proven Pair

The proven Indian financials pair generates a fourth stat arb signal, creating a fresh pair trade opportunity. Essential for quantitative traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

Bank Margins Under Pressure: Navigating the Rate Cut Ripple

Private Banks raise loan spreads while PSBs cut more, reshaping profitability and compressing margins, with margin recovery expected in H2FY26.

Nimish Maheshwari

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Nimish Maheshwari

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Sep 2026)

​Discover eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) Vs Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN): Fourth Stat Arb Signal for a Proven Pair

The proven Indian financials pair generates a fourth stat arb signal, creating a fresh pair trade opportunity. Essential for quantitative traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

Bank Margins Under Pressure: Navigating the Rate Cut Ripple

​Private Banks raise loan spreads while PSBs cut more, reshaping profitability and compressing margins, with margin recovery expected in H2FY26.

Nimish Maheshwari

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

​Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Nimish Maheshwari

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Discover eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Private Banks raise loan spreads while PSBs cut more, reshaping profitability and compressing margins, with margin recovery expected in H2FY26.

Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...