Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KPIT reported a strong Q4FY23 with 8.5% QoQ growth in CC (Constant Currency) terms. Q4FY23 EBITDA margin at 19.1% came in higher than 18.5%+ expected.</li>
<li>Deal TCV came in highest ever helped by a mega deal of INR $250mm. Even excluding the mega deal, the deal TCV was healthy at $173mm vs $150mm+ typically.</li>
<li>KPIT has guided for an upbeat FY24. FY24 revenue growth is guided to be 27-30% in CC terms. FY24 EBITDA margin is guided at 19-20% vs 18.9% in FY23.</li>
</ul>


KPIT reported a strong Q4FY23 with 8.5% QoQ growth in CC (Constant Currency) terms. Q4FY23 EBITDA margin at 19.1% came in higher than 18.5%+ expected.
Deal TCV came in highest ever helped by a mega deal of INR $250mm. Even excluding the mega deal, the deal TCV was healthy at $173mm vs $150mm+ typically.
KPIT has guided for an upbeat FY24. FY24 revenue growth is guided to be 27-30% in CC terms. FY24 EBITDA margin is guided at 19-20% vs 18.9% in FY23.


KPIT Tech: Strong Q4FY23 and Upbeat FY24 Guidance

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Tata Technologies / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23700:1" rel="noopener">Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN)</a>, the largest India-based ER&amp;D (engineering research and development) service provider, is seeking to raise up to US$600 million, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tata-technologies-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:101409" rel="noopener">Tata Technologies IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on below-peer revenue growth, high contract assets, growth reliant on VinFast, mid-tier profitability, and high attrition rates.   </li>
</ul>



Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), the largest India-based ER&amp;D (engineering research and development) service provider, is seeking to raise up to US$600 million, according to press reports.
In Tata Technologies IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on below-peer revenue growth, high contract assets, growth reliant on VinFast, mid-tier profitability, and high attrition rates.   


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23700:1" rel="noopener">Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN)</a>, the largest India-based ER&amp;D service provider, is seeking to raise up to US$600 million, according to press reports.</li>
<li>Tata Technologies ranked first among India service providers and third globally among rated service providers for automotive ER&amp;D services, according to Zinnov.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on its automotive leadership positioning, solid performance of the core business, high repeat rates, rising margin and cash generation. </li>
</ul>



Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), the largest India-based ER&amp;D service provider, is seeking to raise up to US$600 million, according to press reports.
Tata Technologies ranked first among India service providers and third globally among rated service providers for automotive ER&amp;D services, according to Zinnov.
The key elements of the bull case rest on its automotive leadership positioning, solid performance of the core business, high repeat rates, rising margin and cash generation. 


India

KPIT Technologies Limited operates as a technology company. The Company specializes in embedded software, artificial intelligence, and digital solutions. KPIT Technologies serves automobile industry worldwide.

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KPIT Technologies (KPITTECH IN)

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

KPIT Tech: Strong Q4FY23 and Upbeat FY24 Guidance

KPIT reported a strong Q4FY23 with QoQ growth of 8.5% in Constant Currency terms. Margins also came in better than expected. Furthermore, KPIT has...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Tata Technologies IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on below-peer revenue growth, high contract assets, growth reliant on VinFast, mid-tier profitability, and...

Arun George

Tata Technologies IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on its automotive leadership positioning, solid performance of the core business, high repeat rates, rising...

Arun George

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