Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


-------------
Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
-------------

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KPIT reported strong Q3FY23 earnings with organic revenue growth of 24.6% YoY and 4.9% QoQ. Including Technica acquisition, revenue growth was 17.3% QoQ and 31.9% YoY in $ terms.</li>
<li>EBITDA margin stayed steady QoQ at 18.5%. Deal wins were strong with Q3FY23 TCV of $272mm. KPIT is on track to beat its prior FY23 growth outlook.</li>
<li>Despite caution in the IT services sector, KPIT is seeing robust demand as automotive OEMs continue to spend on new automotive tech R&amp;D. </li>
</ul>


KPIT reported strong Q3FY23 earnings with organic revenue growth of 24.6% YoY and 4.9% QoQ. Including Technica acquisition, revenue growth was 17.3% QoQ and 31.9% YoY in $ terms.
EBITDA margin stayed steady QoQ at 18.5%. Deal wins were strong with Q3FY23 TCV of $272mm. KPIT is on track to beat its prior FY23 growth outlook.
Despite caution in the IT services sector, KPIT is seeing robust demand as automotive OEMs continue to spend on new automotive tech R&amp;D. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.</li>
<li>One spin-off should be added to the MidCap segment, while a bunch of recent listings will be added to the SmallCap segment.</li>
<li>Stock migrating upwards have outperformed stocks migrating downwards and we expect there could be some mean reversion from the middle of January.</li>
</ul>


Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.
One spin-off should be added to the MidCap segment, while a bunch of recent listings will be added to the SmallCap segment.
Stock migrating upwards have outperformed stocks migrating downwards and we expect there could be some mean reversion from the middle of January.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations

<ul>
<li>KPIT Technologies (KPIT) reported decent Q2FY23 earnings. Sales grew 8.3% QoQ and 27% YoY in Constant Currency (CC) terms. EBITDA and Net Profit grew 33% and 28% YoY, respectively. </li>
<li>Led by an all-time high order pipeline, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kpit-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35189:1" rel="noopener">KPIT Technologies (KPITTECH IN)</a> gave a bullish outlook and upgraded its FY23 growth guidance. KPIT's Technica acquisition also looks very promising.</li>
<li>In terms of order pipeline, KPIT has a couple of mega deals ($100mm+) in the offing, which if realized, would be the first-ever in its history.</li>
</ul>


KPIT Technologies (KPIT) reported decent Q2FY23 earnings. Sales grew 8.3% QoQ and 27% YoY in Constant Currency (CC) terms. EBITDA and Net Profit grew 33% and 28% YoY, respectively. 
Led by an all-time high order pipeline, KPIT Technologies (KPITTECH IN) gave a bullish outlook and upgraded its FY23 growth guidance. KPIT's Technica acquisition also looks very promising.
In terms of order pipeline, KPIT has a couple of mega deals ($100mm+) in the offing, which if realized, would be the first-ever in its history.


KPIT: Strong Execution and Bullish Outlook

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they <em>are</em> in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

India

KPIT Technologies Limited operates as a technology company. The Company specializes in embedded software, artificial intelligence, and digital solutions. KPIT Technologies serves automobile industry worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

KPIT Technologies (KPITTECH IN)

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

KPIT: On Track to Beat FY23 Guidance

KPIT reported strong growth in line with our thesis. It is on track to beat its prior FY23 guidance. A mega deal of $100mm+ is also in the offing.

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations

Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice...

Brian Freitas

KPIT: Strong Execution and Bullish Outlook

KPIT upgraded its FY23 guidance across both revenues and profitability. Its recent acquisition of Technica adds significant capabilities. We...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)