China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We upgrade Krafton to BUY because of: 1) better-than-expected performance of PUBG China in 4Q22 and 1Q23 ; 2) market expectation hit low point. </li>
<li>We cut our TP by 11% because we are still worried about Krafton’s development and global publishing capability. However, our latest TP is still about 12% higher than current price.</li>
<li>Our 4Q22’s revenue and adj. net income are 7% and 44% higher than cons., respectively. We suggest HFs to cover short position ahead of 4Q22 earning</li>
</ul>


We upgrade Krafton to BUY because of: 1) better-than-expected performance of PUBG China in 4Q22 and 1Q23 ; 2) market expectation hit low point. 
We cut our TP by 11% because we are still worried about Krafton’s development and global publishing capability. However, our latest TP is still about 12% higher than current price.
Our 4Q22’s revenue and adj. net income are 7% and 44% higher than cons., respectively. We suggest HFs to cover short position ahead of 4Q22 earning


KRAFTON (KRX:259960)：PUBG China Has Better Performance, UG to BUY

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ends on 31 January, the changes will be announced towards end February and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.</li>
<li>We forecast one add/delete for the Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Chemical (003670 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a>; the largest outflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kmw-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2834:1" rel="noopener">KMW (032500 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ends on 31 January, the changes will be announced towards end February and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.
We forecast one add/delete for the Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.
The largest inflows are expected on Posco Chemical (003670 KS) and Douzone Bizon (012510 KS); the largest outflows are expected on SK Innovation (096770 KS) and KMW (032500 KS).


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Some Big Impact Names

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Private Capital Markets

SmileGate Holdings / Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Established in 2002, Smilegate Holdings is well known for its globally popular games including Crossfire (a first person shooter game), Lost Ark (MMORPG), and Epic Seven.</li>
<li>In August 2020, Smilegate RPG entered into a partnership with Amazon Games, reaching an exclusive publishing agreement for North America and Europe.</li>
<li>At a P/S valuation of 6-7x using company's 2021 sales of 1.4 trillion won would suggest implied valuations of 8 trillion won to 10 trillion won for Smilegate Holdings.</li>
</ul>


Established in 2002, Smilegate Holdings is well known for its globally popular games including Crossfire (a first person shooter game), Lost Ark (MMORPG), and Epic Seven.
In August 2020, Smilegate RPG entered into a partnership with Amazon Games, reaching an exclusive publishing agreement for North America and Europe.
At a P/S valuation of 6-7x using company's 2021 sales of 1.4 trillion won would suggest implied valuations of 8 trillion won to 10 trillion won for Smilegate Holdings.


Smilegate Holdings: A Giant Korean Game Company in Partnership with Amazon Games

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Capital Markets

Lionheart Studio  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Lionheart used the net profit from 3Q last year to 2Q this year. The Odin sales peaked in the third quarter of last year and are on a downward trend.</li>
<li>The indicative price band reaches a P/E multiple of 22~32x reasonably projected earnings of ₩140B. NCsoft's 12M forward PER stands at 14-15x. Krafton is only 12x.</li>
<li>It is unclear whether the market will accept this price deception under current conditions. We should refrain from aggressively approaching it without a clear answer to the decline in sales.</li>
</ul>


Lionheart used the net profit from 3Q last year to 2Q this year. The Odin sales peaked in the third quarter of last year and are on a downward trend.
The indicative price band reaches a P/E multiple of 22~32x reasonably projected earnings of ₩140B. NCsoft's 12M forward PER stands at 14-15x. Krafton is only 12x.
It is unclear whether the market will accept this price deception under current conditions. We should refrain from aggressively approaching it without a clear answer to the decline in sales.


Lionheart Studio IPO: Still Same Inflated Valuation

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lionheart-studio-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36417:1" rel="noopener">Lionheart Studio (426630 KS)</a>, a game development studio based in South Korea,  aims to raise around US$420m via its South Korean IPO.</li>
<li>The company is majority owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS)</a>, which after having recently hiked its stake, owned 54.94% of the company prior to listing.  </li>
<li>We spoke about the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we’ll talk about our earnings estimates and valuation.</li>
</ul>



Lionheart Studio (426630 KS), a game development studio based in South Korea,  aims to raise around US$420m via its South Korean IPO.
The company is majority owned by Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS), which after having recently hiked its stake, owned 54.94% of the company prior to listing.  
We spoke about the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we’ll talk about our earnings estimates and valuation.


South Korea

Krafton, Inc. operates as a game development company. The Company develops console games, mobile games, computer games, and other related products. Krafton markets its products throughout South Korea.

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Krafton (259960 KS)

KRAFTON (KRX:259960)：PUBG China Has Better Performance, UG to BUY

We upgrade Krafton to BUY because of: 1) better-than-expected performance of PUBG China in 4Q22 and 1Q23; 2) market expectation hit low point.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Some Big Impact Names

There are some high impact changes expected at the March rebalance of the New Deal indices mainly from changes to the top 3 stocks in the Battery...

Brian Freitas

Smilegate Holdings: A Giant Korean Game Company in Partnership with Amazon Games

Established in 2002, Smilegate Holdings is well known for its globally popular games including Crossfire (a first person shooter game), Lost Ark...

Douglas Kim

Lionheart Studio IPO: Still Same Inflated Valuation

This post details the terms of Lionheart Studio IPO and investigates the critical valuation issues, which resemble the inflated valuation...

Sanghyun Park

Lionheart IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

Lionheart Studio (426630 KS), a game development studio based in South Korea, aims to raise around US$420m via its South Korean IPO. In this note,...

Sumeet Singh

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