Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the earnings conference today, NCsoft stated that the company plans to launch a blockchain, NFT based game in 2022, which was the biggest highlight in the earnings conference call.</li>
<li>NCsoft reported slightly worse than expected results in 3Q 2021. Despite these results, the market chose to focus on NCsoft's push into the blockchain, NFT based games. </li>
<li>The entire Korean game industry could be re-rated in the coming weeks, bolstered by the ability to capture new markets and customers through the blockchain, NFT based games. </li>
</ul>


In the earnings conference today, NCsoft stated that the company plans to launch a blockchain, NFT based game in 2022, which was the biggest highlight in the earnings conference call.
NCsoft reported slightly worse than expected results in 3Q 2021. Despite these results, the market chose to focus on NCsoft's push into the blockchain, NFT based games. 
The entire Korean game industry could be re-rated in the coming weeks, bolstered by the ability to capture new markets and customers through the blockchain, NFT based games. 


NCsoft - Launch of Blockchain, NFT Based Game [Re-Rating of the Entire Game Sector in Korea?]

Event-Driven

<h2>M&amp;A of Lionheart Studio by Kakao Games Corp </h2>In this insight, we discuss the increasing likelihood of an IPO of Lionheart Studio post its controlling stake purchase by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS)</a>.  Kakao Games first made its investment in Lionheart Studio in May 2020 and the partnership between the two companies started in August 2018. On 1 November, <a href="https://pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?year=2021&amp;no=1033976" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Games</a> announced that it will acquire an additional 30.37% stake in Lionheart Studio Corp, raising its total stake to 52%.Lionheart Studio is well known for its blockbuster mobile game Odin: Valhalla Rising which was launched in Korea in June 2021 and it was ranked as the top grossing mobile game for 18 weeks in a row at Apple and Google Play app stores in Korea. Kakao Games Corp's subsidiary Kakao Games Europe B.V. will acquire a 30.37% stake in Lionheart Studio by paying 450 billion won for this stake. Lionheart Studio is now valued at 1.5 trillion won. The upfront payment for this acquisition will be made on November 23, 2021. The final acquisition amount will be finalized after Lionheart Studio provides its final business performance through June 30, 2022. Overall, we believe that this M&amp;A of Lionheart Studio and the potential IPO of Lionheart Studio will likely have a positive impact on Kakao Games Corp shares as the company's Odin: Valhalla Rising mobile game has been so successful in reaching top market share for mobile games in Korea.

M&amp;A of Lionheart Studio by Kakao Games Corp In this insight, we discuss the increasing likelihood of an IPO of Lionheart Studio post its controlling stake purchase by Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS).  Kakao Games first made its investment in Lionheart Studio in May 2020 and the partnership between the two companies started in August 2018. On 1 November, Kakao Games announced that it will acquire an additional 30.37% stake in Lionheart Studio Corp, raising its total stake to 52%.Lionheart Studio is well known for its blockbuster mobile game Odin: Valhalla Rising which was launched in Korea in June 2021 and it was ranked as the top grossing mobile game for 18 weeks in a row at Apple and Google Play app stores in Korea. Kakao Games Corp's subsidiary Kakao Games Europe B.V. will acquire a 30.37% stake in Lionheart Studio by paying 450 billion won for this stake. Lionheart Studio is now valued at 1.5 trillion won. The upfront payment for this acquisition will be made on November 23, 2021. The final acquisition amount will be finalized after Lionheart Studio provides its final business performance through June 30, 2022. Overall, we believe that this M&amp;A of Lionheart Studio and the potential IPO of Lionheart Studio will likely have a positive impact on Kakao Games Corp shares as the company's Odin: Valhalla Rising mobile game has been so successful in reaching top market share for mobile games in Korea. 

M&A and IPO of Lionheart Studio & Put Option Clause for Its Executives - Impact on Kakao Games

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Epic Games’ Fortnite will be shutting down in China on the 15th of November after a two-year testing period. This is a good sign to us that China’s gaming sector is now a structural short. It also increases the probability of our call that Epic may not need Tencent as a shareholder anymore being realised in some form or the other.

Epic Games’ Fortnite will be shutting down in China on the 15th of November after a two-year testing period. This is a good sign to us that China’s gaming sector is now a structural short. It also increases the probability of our call that Epic may not need Tencent as a shareholder anymore being realised in some form or the other.

Tencent – Fortnite Is Punching Out and You Should Too

In this insight, we discuss the end of lock-up periods for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33808:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-ie-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29207:1" rel="noopener">SK IE Technology (361610 KS)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">KakaoBank (323410 KS)</a> in 4Q 2021 and 1Q 2022. <ul>
<li>In particular, there are lock up periods ending for these four stocks in November and December.</li>
<li>There are also end of lock-up periods for Krafton and Kakao Bank in early February 2022.</li>
<li>Typically, investors tend to focus on the end of the lock-up periods in Korea about 1-2 months ahead of the actual end of these lock-up periods.</li>
</ul>In addition to analyzing the end of these lock-up periods, we analyze the recent shorts balance of these stocks in recent weeks. <hr><ul>
<li>Although Kakao Bank's share price has performed well since the IPO (up 54% from IPO price), its share price is down 22% from the end of the one month lock-up period. The amount of shares that could be sold after the end of the three months and six months lock-up periods are much bigger (18.3 million shares combined) as compared to the 3.1 million shares that could be sold after the one month lock-up period. Therefore, there are continued concerns about additional selling of Kakao Bank shares in November (after the end of the three months lock-up period).</li>
<li>
Krafton's share price has not performed well after the IPO (down 2% from the IPO price of 498,000 won). With the upcoming end of the 3 month lock-up period, there could be continued negative pressure for additional selling from the existing shareholders.</li>
</ul>

In this insight, we discuss the end of lock-up periods for Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS), SK IE Technology (361610 KS), Krafton Inc (259960 KS), and KakaoBank (323410 KS) in 4Q 2021 and 1Q 2022. 
In particular, there are lock up periods ending for these four stocks in November and December.
There are also end of lock-up periods for Krafton and Kakao Bank in early February 2022.
Typically, investors tend to focus on the end of the lock-up periods in Korea about 1-2 months ahead of the actual end of these lock-up periods.
In addition to analyzing the end of these lock-up periods, we analyze the recent shorts balance of these stocks in recent weeks. 
Although Kakao Bank's share price has performed well since the IPO (up 54% from IPO price), its share price is down 22% from the end of the one month lock-up period. The amount of shares that could be sold after the end of the three months and six months lock-up periods are much bigger (18.3 million shares combined) as compared to the 3.1 million shares that could be sold after the one month lock-up period. Therefore, there are continued concerns about additional selling of Kakao Bank shares in November (after the end of the three months lock-up period).

Krafton's share price has not performed well after the IPO (down 2% from the IPO price of 498,000 won). With the upcoming end of the 3 month lock-up period, there could be continued negative pressure for additional selling from the existing shareholders.


End of Lock-Ups for Kakao Bank, Krafton, SK IET, & HHI in 4Q 2021 and Increasing Short Volumes

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Below is the lockup release schedule and volume of noteworthy KOSPI stocks from this week to the end of next month.<div class="content-highlight">This time around, there are quite a few stocks with significant volume releases among the top stocks by market cap. These are the large-cap stocks (a market cap of ₩10T or higher) that deserve our special attention:</div><ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinhan-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6978:1" rel="noopener">Shinhan Financial (055550 KS)</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">KakaoBank (323410 KS)</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-ie-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29207:1" rel="noopener">SK IE Technology (361610 KS)</a> </li>
</ul><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Major lockup releases"}'>Major lockup releases</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Release date"}'>Release date</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"% of SO"}'>% of SO</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Market cap"}'>Market cap</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"SK Rent A Car"}'>SK Rent A Car</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"068400"}' data-sheets-formula='="068400"'>068400</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44488}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 10. 19</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.24362472994029502}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[2]/googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "shares")'>24.36%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.572158664}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.00T","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "price")*googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "shares")/1000000000000'>₩0.57T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shinhan Financial Group"}'>Shinhan Financial Group</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"055550"}' data-sheets-formula='="055550"'>055550</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44489}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 10. 20</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.07574532284632983}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[2]/googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "shares")'>7.57%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":20.147382606}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.00T","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "price")*googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "shares")/1000000000000'>₩20.15T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Kakao Bank"}'>Kakao Bank</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":323410}'>323410</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44506}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 11. 08</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.03207744137580803}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[2]/googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "shares")'>4.27%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":28.5535242437}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.00T","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "price")*googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "shares")/1000000000000'>₩28.55T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Lotte Chilsung Beverage"}'>Lotte Chilsung Beverage</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"005300"}' data-sheets-formula='="005300"'>005300</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44509}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 11. 09</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.1056161495283269}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[2]/googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "shares")'>10.56%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.456784788}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.00T","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "price")*googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "shares")/1000000000000'>₩1.46T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Krafton"}'>Krafton</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":259960}'>259960</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44510}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 11. 10</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.05515669660006972}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[2]/googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "shares")'>8.27%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":23.1295577625}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.00T","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "price")*googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "shares")/1000000000000'>₩23.13T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"SK IE Technology"}'>SK IE Technology</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":361610}'>361610</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44511}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 11. 11</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7000236417521647}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[2]/googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "shares")'>70.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":13.796084052}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.00T","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "price")*googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "shares")/1000000000000'>₩13.80T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Kyung Dong Navien"}'>Kyung Dong Navien</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"009450"}' data-sheets-formula='="009450"'>009450</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44517}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 11. 17</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.06394834737624341}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[2]/googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "shares")'>6.39%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.889749342}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.00T","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "price")*googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "shares")/1000000000000'>₩0.89T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hanjin Transportation"}'>Hanjin Transportation</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"002320"}' data-sheets-formula='="002320"'>002320</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44519}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 11. 19</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.03947114552221931}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[2]/googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "shares")'>3.95%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5291460312}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.00T","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "price")*googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "shares")/1000000000000'>₩0.53T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Meritz Fire &amp; Marine Insurance Co Ltd"}'>Meritz Fire &amp; Marine Insurance</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"000060"}' data-sheets-formula='="000060"'>000060</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44527}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 11. 27</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.05761658031088083}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[2]/googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "shares")'>5.76%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3.50415625}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.00T","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "price")*googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "shares")/1000000000000'>₩3.50T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value="{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;T'way Air Co Ltd&quot;}">T'way Air</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"091810"}' data-sheets-formula='="091810"'>091810</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44528}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 11. 28</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.016133377130316148}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[0]C[2]/googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "shares")'>1.61%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.44021781321}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.00T","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "price")*googlefinance(R[0]C[-3], "shares")/1000000000000'>₩0.44T</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Below is the lockup release schedule and volume of noteworthy KOSPI stocks from this week to the end of next month.This time around, there are quite a few stocks with significant volume releases among the top stocks by market cap. These are the large-cap stocks (a market cap of ₩10T or higher) that deserve our special attention:
Shinhan Financial (055550 KS)
KakaoBank (323410 KS)

 Krafton Inc (259960 KS) 

SK IE Technology (361610 KS) 










Major lockup releases
Ticker
Release date
% of SO
Market cap


SK Rent A Car
068400
2021. 10. 19
24.36%
₩0.57T


Shinhan Financial Group
055550
2021. 10. 20
7.57%
₩20.15T


Kakao Bank
323410
2021. 11. 08
4.27%
₩28.55T


Lotte Chilsung Beverage
005300
2021. 11. 09
10.56%
₩1.46T


Krafton
259960
2021. 11. 10
8.27%
₩23.13T


SK IE Technology
361610
2021. 11. 11
70.00%
₩13.80T


Kyung Dong Navien
009450
2021. 11. 17
6.39%
₩0.89T


Hanjin Transportation
002320
2021. 11. 19
3.95%
₩0.53T


Meritz Fire &amp; Marine Insurance
000060
2021. 11. 27
5.76%
₩3.50T


T'way Air
091810
2021. 11. 28
1.61%
₩0.44T

Source: KRX



KOSPI Major Lockup Releases: Kakao Bank, Krafton, SKIET, & Shinhan Financial

South Korea

Krafton, Inc. operates as a game development company. The Company develops console games, mobile games, computer games, and other related products. Krafton markets its products throughout South Korea.

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Krafton (259960 KS)

NCsoft - Launch of Blockchain, NFT Based Game [Re-Rating of the Entire Game Sector in Korea?]

In the earnings conference today, NCsoft stated that the company plans to launch a blockchain, NFT based game in 2022, which was the biggest...

Douglas Kim

M&A and IPO of Lionheart Studio & Put Option Clause for Its Executives - Impact on Kakao Games

In this insight, we discuss the increasing likelihood of an IPO of Lionheart Studio post its controlling stake purchase by Kakao Games Corp (293490...

Douglas Kim

Tencent – Fortnite Is Punching Out and You Should Too

Epic Games’ Fortnite will be shutting down in China on the 15th of November after a two-year testing period. This is a good sign to us that China’s...

Mio Kato

End of Lock-Ups for Kakao Bank, Krafton, SK IET, & HHI in 4Q 2021 and Increasing Short Volumes

In this insight, we discuss end of lock-up periods for Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS), SK IE Technology (361610 KS), Krafton Inc (259960 KS),...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Major Lockup Releases: Kakao Bank, Krafton, SKIET, & Shinhan Financial

This post contains the lockup release schedule and volume of KOSPI stocks from this week to next month. These four stocks deserve special...

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)