Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>NPS has been continuing to sell big in Korea in 2021. Having covered Korea for more than two decades, I do not remember NPS selling like it has been in the past two months. As of 28 February, NPS net sold KOSPI for <strong>42 consecutive days. </strong>It has been reported that NPS sold nearly 13 trillion won ($11.6 billion) of KOSPI since December 2020. The big selling by the NPS has become one of the biggest stories in the Korean stock market in 2021. </p>
<p>As of the end of 2020, the Korean equities accounted for<strong> 21.2%</strong> of NPS' total portfolio. <a href="https://finance.naver.com/news/news_read.nhn?article_id=0003341623&amp;office_id=020&amp;mode=LSS2D&amp;type=0&amp;section_id=101&amp;section_id2=258&amp;section_id3=&amp;date=20210302&amp;page=3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NPS'</a> goal is to reduce this to <strong>16.8%</strong> of its total portfolio at the end of 2021. That is a big drop. In this case, NPS could sell an additional 24 trillion won ($21.4 billion) worth of Korean stocks by the end of 2021, which is nearly twice the amount of Korean stocks that it has sold in the past two months. </p>
</div>


NPS has been continuing to sell big in Korea in 2021. Having covered Korea for more than two decades, I do not remember NPS selling like it has been in the past two months. As of 28 February, NPS net sold KOSPI for 42 consecutive days. It has been reported that NPS sold nearly 13 trillion won ($11.6 billion) of KOSPI since December 2020. The big selling by the NPS has become one of the biggest stories in the Korean stock market in 2021. 
As of the end of 2020, the Korean equities accounted for 21.2% of NPS' total portfolio. NPS' goal is to reduce this to 16.8% of its total portfolio at the end of 2021. That is a big drop. In this case, NPS could sell an additional 24 trillion won ($21.4 billion) worth of Korean stocks by the end of 2021, which is nearly twice the amount of Korean stocks that it has sold in the past two months. 


NPS Is Selling Big in Korea - Will This Lead to an Underperformance of KOSPI in 2021?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<p>The Asian OTT sector is one of the most attractive industries to be in the next five years. In this report, we highlight numerous major potential winners and discuss some of the most important factors impacting the OTT sector in Asia. There are three crucial trends that will impact the Asian OTT sector:</p>
<ul>
<li>A surging growth of 5G services</li>
<li>Increased consolidations and partnerships especially among the global OTTs and local content providers/OTTs</li>
<li>Greater spending on higher quality contents in efforts to improve consumer retention</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>The main purpose of this report is as follows:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Identify the major players (both public &amp; private) in the OTT sector in Asia</li>
<li>Specify the key trends driving the Asian OTT industry</li>
<li>Provide an initial overview of the key companies in the Asian OTT industry</li>
</ul>
</div>


The Asian OTT sector is one of the most attractive industries to be in the next five years. In this report, we highlight numerous major potential winners and discuss some of the most important factors impacting the OTT sector in Asia. There are three crucial trends that will impact the Asian OTT sector:

A surging growth of 5G services
Increased consolidations and partnerships especially among the global OTTs and local content providers/OTTs
Greater spending on higher quality contents in efforts to improve consumer retention

The main purpose of this report is as follows:

Identify the major players (both public &amp; private) in the OTT sector in Asia
Specify the key trends driving the Asian OTT industry
Provide an initial overview of the key companies in the Asian OTT industry



Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ind-comm-bk-of-china-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Communication Services, Energy and Consumer Staples, and decreased on Information Technology, Financials and Consumer Discretionary.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/change-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27414:1" rel="noopener">Change Inc (3962 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renova-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26753:1" rel="noopener">RENOVA Inc (9519 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone Corp (5108 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Utilities and Communication Services, while decreasing on Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Information Technology and Industrials.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, there were short positions put on in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1112:1" rel="noopener">KT Corp (030200 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-uplus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1113:1" rel="noopener">LG Uplus Corp (032640 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asustek-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13002:1" rel="noopener">Asustek Computer (2357 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walsin-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11084:1" rel="noopener">Walsin Technology (2492 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/richwave-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18629:1" rel="noopener">Richwave Technology (4968 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-jit-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12501:1" rel="noopener">Pan Jit International (2481 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on ICBC (H) (1398 HK), China Mobile (941 HK), CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) and BYD (1211 HK) while there was short covering on Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK), HKEX (388 HK) and JD.com (HK) (9618 HK). Shorts increased on Communication Services, Energy and Consumer Staples, and decreased on Information Technology, Financials and Consumer Discretionary.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Change Inc (3962 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP), RENOVA Inc (9519 JP) and Shimamura (8227 JP) while shorts decreased on Honda Motor (7267 JP), Kao Corp (4452 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP) and Bridgestone Corp (5108 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Utilities and Communication Services, while decreasing on Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Information Technology and Industrials.In Korea, there were short positions put on in KT Corp (030200 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), LG Uplus Corp (032640 KS) and Kakao Corp (035720 KS). Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were TSMC (2330 TT), Largan Precision (3008 TT), Pegatron Corp (4938 TT) and Asustek Computer (2357 TT) while shorts were covered on Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), Walsin Technology (2492 TT), Richwave Technology (4968 TT) and Pan Jit International (2481 TT). 

Asia Short Interest: China Mobile, CNOOC, Xiaomi, JD, Change, KT, Samsung, TSMC, Largan

Global TMT analyst with Asia ex-Japan focus.

Mitchell Kim

<ul type="disc">
<li>
<strong>In this report, we highlight the best money making ideas by identifying the winners and the losers of the sectors in the 5G value chain. </strong>For investors looking for 5G thematic ideas, we provide a snapshot of the sectors in the 5G value chain.  To distill our ideas, we focus on three positive factors: 1) does 5G generate new customers or revenue sources? 2) does it lead to market share changes? And 3) are the sectors in the upward cycle still in play? </li>
<li>
<strong>The sectors we like in the 5G context are Internet technology platforms, smartphones/devices, 5G infrastructure vendors, PCB and small cell technology providers, and selective telecom operators. </strong>We are bullish on Southeast Asian telcos but bearish on North Asian telcos.  </li>
</ul><ul type="disc"><li>
<strong>Our contrarian buys in the telecom sector are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globe-telecom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1926:1" rel="noopener">Globe Telecom (GLO PM)</a>.</strong> They operate in markets with low fixed broadband penetration and weak incumbent fixed broadband operators.  5G FWA (fixed wireless access) will allow these operators to expand fixed broadband penetration and also gain market share.  </li></ul><ul type="disc">
<li>
<strong>Avoid North Asia telecom operators.</strong> North Asian telecom stocks languished because they did not generate sufficient returns on 3G and 4G. 5G is no different.    </li>
<li>
<strong>5G provides low priced smartphone maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> another opportunity to gain market share as did 4G</strong>, but it will not lead to total handset shipment growth for top brands, in our view. </li>
<li>
<strong>The best time to take a position in telecom equipment vendors is pre-launch and in the first two years of the new generation technology launch</strong>. <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zte-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6922:1" rel="noopener">Zte Corp H (763 HK)</a></strong> is trading below its 10-year mean P/E.  </li>
</ul><hr><div class="content-highlight">
<h2>What’s Original?</h2>
<p>We set out in this report to be different from others by avoiding a menu of stocks and the size of the markets in the 5G ecosystem and, instead, recommend several key thematic ideas distilled by analyzing more in-depth the drivers of three key sectors to determine where the market is overly bullish or overlooking the opportunities or where the 5G factor has not yet been priced-in. </p>
<ul>
<li>We analyzed the stock price performances of these sectors to review how they behaved during the 4G deployment to ascertain how they may react to 5G.</li>
<li>We conducted a proprietary analysis of the size of the potential revenue from billions of IoT connections that the industry is touting in the long term.</li>
<li>We provide a RoIC analysis of the Chinese telecom operators' 3G/4G investments to better understand why the Chinese telecom operators invest less in 5G than the figures promoted by the governments or the industry research firms.   </li>
<li>We compare our Capex forecasts with the industry projection to assess the opportunities and risks. </li>
</ul>
</div>



In this report, we highlight the best money making ideas by identifying the winners and the losers of the sectors in the 5G value chain. For investors looking for 5G thematic ideas, we provide a snapshot of the sectors in the 5G value chain.  To distill our ideas, we focus on three positive factors: 1) does 5G generate new customers or revenue sources? 2) does it lead to market share changes? And 3) are the sectors in the upward cycle still in play? 

The sectors we like in the 5G context are Internet technology platforms, smartphones/devices, 5G infrastructure vendors, PCB and small cell technology providers, and selective telecom operators. We are bullish on Southeast Asian telcos but bearish on North Asian telcos.  

Our contrarian buys in the telecom sector are Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) and Globe Telecom (GLO PM). They operate in markets with low fixed broadband penetration and weak incumbent fixed broadband operators.  5G FWA (fixed wireless access) will allow these operators to expand fixed broadband penetration and also gain market share.  

Avoid North Asia telecom operators. North Asian telecom stocks languished because they did not generate sufficient returns on 3G and 4G. 5G is no different.    

5G provides low priced smartphone maker Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) another opportunity to gain market share as did 4G, but it will not lead to total handset shipment growth for top brands, in our view. 

The best time to take a position in telecom equipment vendors is pre-launch and in the first two years of the new generation technology launch. Zte Corp H (763 HK) is trading below its 10-year mean P/E.  

What’s Original?
We set out in this report to be different from others by avoiding a menu of stocks and the size of the markets in the 5G ecosystem and, instead, recommend several key thematic ideas distilled by analyzing more in-depth the drivers of three key sectors to determine where the market is overly bullish or overlooking the opportunities or where the 5G factor has not yet been priced-in. 

We analyzed the stock price performances of these sectors to review how they behaved during the 4G deployment to ascertain how they may react to 5G.
We conducted a proprietary analysis of the size of the potential revenue from billions of IoT connections that the industry is touting in the long term.
We provide a RoIC analysis of the Chinese telecom operators' 3G/4G investments to better understand why the Chinese telecom operators invest less in 5G than the figures promoted by the governments or the industry research firms.   
We compare our Capex forecasts with the industry projection to assess the opportunities and risks. 



Equity Bottom-Up

<p>This morning, it was widely reported in several <a href="https://n.news.naver.com/article/016/0001702806?cds=news_edit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">local media</a> that the Robert Strayer (Deputy Assistant Secretary at the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs for Cyber and International Communications and Information Policy ) has formally requested <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-uplus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1113:1" rel="noopener">LG Uplus Corp (032640 KS)</a> to stop using Huawei's telecom products and discontinue all transactions with Huawei since this is a <a href="http://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&amp;Seq_Code=155046" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"serious safety issue." </a>Instead, LG Uplus should switch to "trusted vendors." </p><div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>The most likely issue is to delay as much as possible on making any change to the current structure of LG Uplus continuing to depend on Huawei for a big portion of its 5G telecom equipment products.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Impact on LG Uplus - </strong>We believe that the U.S. government's formal request for LG Uplus to stop using Huawei's telecom equipment products is a clear negative on the share price of LG Plus since it brings into play too much government interference. Operating a major telecom service business is as tough as it is, once you get this much political interference involving the three major countries (U.S., China, and Korea), there are bound to be some negative impact on the perception of this stock in the near term. (Today, LG Uplus's share price has fallen 5% to 11,500 won).</p>
</div>

This morning, it was widely reported in several local media that the Robert Strayer (Deputy Assistant Secretary at the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs for Cyber and International Communications and Information Policy ) has formally requested LG Uplus Corp (032640 KS) to stop using Huawei's telecom products and discontinue all transactions with Huawei since this is a "serious safety issue." Instead, LG Uplus should switch to "trusted vendors." 
The most likely issue is to delay as much as possible on making any change to the current structure of LG Uplus continuing to depend on Huawei for a big portion of its 5G telecom equipment products.
Impact on LG Uplus - We believe that the U.S. government's formal request for LG Uplus to stop using Huawei's telecom equipment products is a clear negative on the share price of LG Plus since it brings into play too much government interference. Operating a major telecom service business is as tough as it is, once you get this much political interference involving the three major countries (U.S., China, and Korea), there are bound to be some negative impact on the perception of this stock in the near term. (Today, LG Uplus's share price has fallen 5% to 11,500 won).


The U.S. Government Formally Requests LG Uplus to Stop Using Huawei Products

South Korea

KT Corporation provides telecommunication services including local, long distance, and international calling, satellite communication, data transmission, and wireless telephone services in South Korea.  The Company also offers network portal and high-speed Internet access services using asymmetric digital subscriber lines (ADSLs).

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KT Corp Sp Adr (KT US)

NPS Is Selling Big in Korea - Will This Lead to an Underperformance of KOSPI in 2021?

As of 28 February, NPS net sold KOSPI for 42 consecutive days. NPS could sell an additional 24 trillion won ($21.4 billion) worth of Korean stocks...

Douglas Kim

Asian OTT Wars

The Asian OTT sector is one of the most attractive industries to be in the next five years. In this Smartkarma Original, we discuss some of the...

Douglas Kim

Asia Short Interest: China Mobile, CNOOC, Xiaomi, JD, Change, KT, Samsung, TSMC, Largan

The weekly short interest report looks at large moves across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and helps in determining market interest that could...

Brian Freitas

Road to 5G: How to Make Money in 5G

In this report, we highlight the best money making ideas by identifying the winners and the losers of the sectors in the 5G value chain. For...

Mitchell Kim

The U.S. Government Formally Requests LG Uplus to Stop Using Huawei Products

This morning, it was widely reported in several local media that the Robert Strayer (Deputy Assistant Secretary at the U.S. State Department's...

Douglas Kim

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