China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect that Kuaishou’s 1Q23/2023 top line would be basically in line vs cons, as major business lines are recovering as macro rebounds. </li>
<li>However, we estimate that its 1Q23/2023 bottom line would still largely miss cons by (36%)/(39%), due to our concerns of increasing competition from WeChat Video Account and Douyin.</li>
<li>Maintain SELL rating and cut TP to HK$ 45 to reflect intensifying competition landscape. Our TP implies 1.8X PS/221X PE in 2023.  </li>
</ul>


We expect that Kuaishou’s 1Q23/2023 top line would be basically in line vs cons, as major business lines are recovering as macro rebounds. 
However, we estimate that its 1Q23/2023 bottom line would still largely miss cons by (36%)/(39%), due to our concerns of increasing competition from WeChat Video Account and Douyin.
Maintain SELL rating and cut TP to HK$ 45 to reflect intensifying competition landscape. Our TP implies 1.8X PS/221X PE in 2023.  


[Kuaishou (1024 HK, SELL, TP HK$45) Target Price Change]: Competition Intensifies from Major Players

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Despite macro challenges and competition, we expect Kuaishou to deliver upbeat 1Q23E, with stronger ecommerce &amp; livestreaming (LS) and better bottom line.</li><li>LS would continuously gain share (rev +14% YoY), boosted by faster engagement with top agencies and hosts.</li><li>We expect its other rev (ecommerce) to grow 41% YoY, with GMV largely in line (+28% YoY) and higher take rate. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Despite macro challenges and competition, we expect Kuaishou to deliver upbeat 1Q23E, with stronger ecommerce &amp; livestreaming (LS) and better bottom line.LS would continuously gain share (rev +14% YoY), boosted by faster engagement with top agencies and hosts.We expect its other rev (ecommerce) to grow 41% YoY, with GMV largely in line (+28% YoY) and higher take rate. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kuaishou (1024 HK) – Stronger 1Q23E on better ecommerce & LS

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 14th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Li Auto, Wuxi Bio, Baba, Tencent, Sensetime.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 14th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Li Auto, Wuxi Bio, Baba, Tencent, Sensetime.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Li Auto, Wuxi Bio, Baba, Tencent, Sensetime

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Founded in 2017 in Beijing, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-tai-ruo-technology-co-ltd-nreal-ai" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36880:1" rel="noopener">Nreal.ai (1690070D CH)</a> is an Augmented Reality (AR)/ mixed reality (MR) technology company that develops and sells AR glasses.</li>
<li>The company's glasses have received wide recognition as they are designed to be lightweight, comfortable and affordable, making them more accessible to consumers.</li>
<li>The company has raised more than USD240m in funding and as per the company, we could expect an IPO over the next 18-24 months.  </li>
</ul>


Founded in 2017 in Beijing, Nreal.ai (1690070D CH) is an Augmented Reality (AR)/ mixed reality (MR) technology company that develops and sells AR glasses.
The company's glasses have received wide recognition as they are designed to be lightweight, comfortable and affordable, making them more accessible to consumers.
The company has raised more than USD240m in funding and as per the company, we could expect an IPO over the next 18-24 months.  


Nreal: AR/MR Technology Player Recognised for Affordable Glasses

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 14th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Sensetime, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 14th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Sensetime, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou Technology.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 14th): Sensetime, SMIC, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou

China

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

[Kuaishou (1024 HK, SELL, TP HK$45) Target Price Change]: Competition Intensifies from Major Players

Maintain SELL rating and cut TP to HK$ 45 to reflect intensifying competition landscape. Our TP implies 1.8X PS/221X PE in 2023.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Kuaishou (1024 HK) – Stronger 1Q23E on better ecommerce & LS

Despite macro challenges and competition, we expect Kuaishou to deliver upbeat 1Q23E, with stronger ecommerce & livestreaming (LS) and better...

CMB International

HK Short Interest Weekly: Li Auto, Wuxi Bio, Baba, Tencent, Sensetime

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 14th and highlight short interest changes in Li Auto, Wuxi Bio, Baba,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Nreal: AR/MR Technology Player Recognised for Affordable Glasses

Nreal is an AR/ mixed reality (MR) tech company that develops and sells AR glasses. Nreal’s more-affordable, lightweight AR glasses are more...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 14th): Sensetime, SMIC, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Sensetime, SMIC, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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