Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.</li>
<li>Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.</li>
<li>BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.</li>
</ul>


BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.
Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.
BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.


BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

<p>We believe that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a> is a special situation that warrants a close look from the long side.  Our recent checks in the live broadcasting broadcasters and agencies suggest that broadcasters see a surge in traffic/new viewers from BIDU in recent weeks.  BIDU traffic is of lower quality than YY as BIDU’s existing business model for live streaming is ecommerce.  YY, on the other hand, discusses tips for broadcasters.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>  has opened multiple entries to YY.  For example, all viewers of Haokan Video (short video sub of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> ) now have access to YY subsidiaries.  Haokan is said to have 30MM DAU through independent Haokan App, and 110 MM DAU through all apps in Baidu ecosystem in 2019.  Assuming YY can convert 1% DAU to paying users, that is 26% boost to YY existing paying users.</p>

We believe that JOYY (YY US) is a special situation that warrants a close look from the long side.  Our recent checks in the live broadcasting broadcasters and agencies suggest that broadcasters see a surge in traffic/new viewers from BIDU in recent weeks.  BIDU traffic is of lower quality than YY as BIDU’s existing business model for live streaming is ecommerce.  YY, on the other hand, discusses tips for broadcasters.  Baidu (BIDU US)  has opened multiple entries to YY.  For example, all viewers of Haokan Video (short video sub of Baidu (BIDU US) ) now have access to YY subsidiaries.  Haokan is said to have 30MM DAU through independent Haokan App, and 110 MM DAU through all apps in Baidu ecosystem in 2019.  Assuming YY can convert 1% DAU to paying users, that is 26% boost to YY existing paying users.

BIDU-YY Live Streaming Integration Update: Unlocking Deep Value in YY

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 21st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in CATL, Csop Hsi (2X Inv), Central New Energy, Xiaomi, TraHK HSI ETF.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 21st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in CATL, Csop Hsi (2X Inv), Central New Energy, Xiaomi, TraHK HSI ETF.


HK Short Interest Weekly: CATL, Central New Energy, Xiaomi

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 28th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Kuaishou, CMB, Tencent, SMIC, Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 28th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Kuaishou, CMB, Tencent, SMIC, Xiaomi.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Nov 28th): Alibaba, Kuaishou, CMB, Tencent, SMIC, Xiaomi

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on JD.COM, JD Health, LI AUTO, BYD, BIDU, MEITUAN, TRIP.COM, Trip.Com, Jd, Bidu, BYD, Li Auto, Meituan, Jd Health.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on JD.COM, JD Health, LI AUTO, BYD, BIDU, MEITUAN, TRIP.COM, Trip.Com, Jd, Bidu, BYD, Li Auto, Meituan, Jd Health.


HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Nov): JD.COM, JD Health, LI AUTO, BYD, BIDU, MEITUAN, TRIP.COM

China

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Simply achieving breakeven can't justify BILI's US$10bn market cap. Expect the company to be a leaner, profitable company yet without bright...

Eric Chen

BIDU-YY Live Streaming Integration Update: Unlocking Deep Value in YY

YY to broadcaster on May 21: “YY and Baidu live streaming channels will start sharing data. We asked our live broadcasters to welcome the new...

JL Warren Capital

HK Short Interest Weekly: CATL, Central New Energy, Xiaomi

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 21st and highlight short interest changes in CATL, Csop Hsi (2X Inv),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Nov 28th): Alibaba, Kuaishou, CMB, Tencent, SMIC, Xiaomi

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Kuaishou, CMB, Tencent, SMIC, Xiaomi.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Nov): JD.COM, JD Health, LI AUTO, BYD, BIDU, MEITUAN, TRIP.COM

We analyzed HS TECH's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in JD.COM, JD Health, LI AUTO, BYD, BIDU, MEITUAN, TRIP.COM, Trip.Com,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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