External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by 58% YoY to RMB556mn, beating our/consensus estimate of RMB677/633mn, mainly attributable to the better-than-expected control in non-GAAP opex.</li><li>For FY23, total revenue was up 3% YoY to RMB22.5bn, with adjusted net loss narrowing by 49% YoY to RMB3.4bn.</li><li>Looking into 2024, the focus for Bili remains as enhancing monetization and improving content ecosystem. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by 58% YoY to RMB556mn, beating our/consensus estimate of RMB677/633mn, mainly attributable to the better-than-expected control in non-GAAP opex.For FY23, total revenue was up 3% YoY to RMB22.5bn, with adjusted net loss narrowing by 49% YoY to RMB3.4bn.Looking into 2024, the focus for Bili remains as enhancing monetization and improving content ecosystem. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) - Steady Progress Towards a Sustainable Business Model

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Bilibili reported  C3Q23 revenue, operating profit, and GAAP net income inline, 4.37%, (21.6%) vs. consensus. The miss was primarily due to ineffective investment in game studio and related costs.</li>
<li>We are bearish on BILI’s game pipeline as ACGN is already a crowded market with well-entrenched competitors</li>
<li>We maintain our SELL rating and cut the TP from US$ 12.3 to US$ 9.04, and consider that it is unlikely for them to breakeven in 2024</li>
</ul>


Bilibili reported  C3Q23 revenue, operating profit, and GAAP net income inline, 4.37%, (21.6%) vs. consensus. The miss was primarily due to ineffective investment in game studio and related costs.
We are bearish on BILI’s game pipeline as ACGN is already a crowded market with well-entrenched competitors
We maintain our SELL rating and cut the TP from US$ 12.3 to US$ 9.04, and consider that it is unlikely for them to breakeven in 2024


[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation

<ul><li>BiliBili reported inline 3Q23 results on 29 Nov: total revenue was flat YoY at RMB5.81bn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB5.77/5.80bn; adjusted net loss narrowed by 50% YoY and 9% QoQ to RMB878mn, but missed CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB757/778mn due to the higher-than-expected investment loss (incl. impairment).</li><li>Bili guides its FY23 total revenue to be at the lower-end of the RMB22.5-23.5bn range, which is in line with our expectation, due to the softer-than-expected performance of mobile game business.</li><li>For 4Q23E, we forecast total revenue to grow by 3% YoY to RMB6.3bn, primarily supported by growth of ad/VAS revenue (+25%/18% YoY) but partially offset by a decline in mobile games revenue (-5% YoY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BiliBili reported inline 3Q23 results on 29 Nov: total revenue was flat YoY at RMB5.81bn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB5.77/5.80bn; adjusted net loss narrowed by 50% YoY and 9% QoQ to RMB878mn, but missed CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB757/778mn due to the higher-than-expected investment loss (incl. impairment).Bili guides its FY23 total revenue to be at the lower-end of the RMB22.5-23.5bn range, which is in line with our expectation, due to the softer-than-expected performance of mobile game business.For 4Q23E, we forecast total revenue to grow by 3% YoY to RMB6.3bn, primarily supported by growth of ad/VAS revenue (+25%/18% YoY) but partially offset by a decline in mobile games revenue (-5% YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) – Game Business Weighed on Revenue Growth Despite Resilient Ad and VAS Business

<ul><li>CTGR reported a 10.31% YoY increase in 3Q23 electricity generation, with wind and solar power showing robust growth.</li><li>Cumulatively, from 1Q23 to 3Q23, the company’s electricity generation grew by 13.36% YoY to 40.03bn kWh.</li><li>We remain optimistic about CTGR’s full-year power generation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CTGR reported a 10.31% YoY increase in 3Q23 electricity generation, with wind and solar power showing robust growth.Cumulatively, from 1Q23 to 3Q23, the company’s electricity generation grew by 13.36% YoY to 40.03bn kWh.We remain optimistic about CTGR’s full-year power generation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) – 3Q23 Preview: Loss Reduction Remains on Track

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>"VTuber" (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anycolor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36618:1" rel="noopener">Anycolor (5032 JP)</a> was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.</li>
<li>Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym2/128782/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">result</a>, <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym3/128783/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>) and <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/198000/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised its full-year forecast</a> to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.</li>
<li>The company also announced it is preparing a <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/198002/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Section Transfer application</a>, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.</li>
</ul>


"VTuber" (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company Anycolor (5032 JP) was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.
Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (result, presentation) and revised its full-year forecast to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.
The company also announced it is preparing a Section Transfer application, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.


2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

Bilibili (BILI US)

Bilibili (BILI US) - Steady Progress Towards a Sustainable Business Model

Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss...

CMB International

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation

Bilibili's Q3 results disappoint due to ineffective investment in game studio. Analysts are bearish on their game pipeline and maintain a SELL...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) – Game Business Weighed on Revenue Growth Despite Resilient Ad and VAS Business

We maintain our total revenue forecast largely unchanged and see Bili remain on track for breakeven by endFY24. We maintain our SOTP-based TP of...

CMB International

Bilibili (BILI US) – 3Q23 Preview: Loss Reduction Remains on Track

Cumulatively, from 1Q23 to 3Q23, the company’s electricity generation grew by 13.36% YoY to 40.03bn kWh. We remain optimistic about CTGR’s full...

CMB International

2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

ANYCOLOR (5032) is a curious company. "Expensive at 9x forward revs, but it sports a "Rule of 148" to April 2023, so 42x EPSe is not overly...

Travis Lundy

Bilibili (BILI US) - Steady Progress Towards a Sustainable Business Model

Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss...

CMB International

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation

​Bilibili's Q3 results disappoint due to ineffective investment in game studio. Analysts are bearish on their game pipeline and maintain a SELL...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) – Game Business Weighed on Revenue Growth Despite Resilient Ad and VAS Business

We maintain our total revenue forecast largely unchanged and see Bili remain on track for breakeven by endFY24. We maintain our SOTP-based TP of...

CMB International

Bilibili (BILI US) – 3Q23 Preview: Loss Reduction Remains on Track

Cumulatively, from 1Q23 to 3Q23, the company’s electricity generation grew by 13.36% YoY to 40.03bn kWh. We remain optimistic about CTGR’s full...

CMB International

2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

ANYCOLOR (5032) is a curious company. "Expensive at 9x forward revs, but it sports a "Rule of 148" to April 2023, so 42x EPSe is not overly...

Travis Lundy

Bilibili's Q3 results disappoint due to ineffective investment in game studio. Analysts are bearish on their game pipeline and maintain a SELL...