Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bilibili reported  C3Q23 revenue, operating profit, and GAAP net income inline, 4.37%, (21.6%) vs. consensus. The miss was primarily due to ineffective investment in game studio and related costs.</li>
<li>We are bearish on BILI’s game pipeline as ACGN is already a crowded market with well-entrenched competitors</li>
<li>We maintain our SELL rating and cut the TP from US$ 12.3 to US$ 9.04, and consider that it is unlikely for them to breakeven in 2024</li>
</ul>


Bilibili reported  C3Q23 revenue, operating profit, and GAAP net income inline, 4.37%, (21.6%) vs. consensus. The miss was primarily due to ineffective investment in game studio and related costs.
We are bearish on BILI’s game pipeline as ACGN is already a crowded market with well-entrenched competitors
We maintain our SELL rating and cut the TP from US$ 12.3 to US$ 9.04, and consider that it is unlikely for them to breakeven in 2024


[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>BiliBili reported inline 3Q23 results on 29 Nov: total revenue was flat YoY at RMB5.81bn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB5.77/5.80bn; adjusted net loss narrowed by 50% YoY and 9% QoQ to RMB878mn, but missed CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB757/778mn due to the higher-than-expected investment loss (incl. impairment).</li><li>Bili guides its FY23 total revenue to be at the lower-end of the RMB22.5-23.5bn range, which is in line with our expectation, due to the softer-than-expected performance of mobile game business.</li><li>For 4Q23E, we forecast total revenue to grow by 3% YoY to RMB6.3bn, primarily supported by growth of ad/VAS revenue (+25%/18% YoY) but partially offset by a decline in mobile games revenue (-5% YoY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BiliBili reported inline 3Q23 results on 29 Nov: total revenue was flat YoY at RMB5.81bn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB5.77/5.80bn; adjusted net loss narrowed by 50% YoY and 9% QoQ to RMB878mn, but missed CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB757/778mn due to the higher-than-expected investment loss (incl. impairment).Bili guides its FY23 total revenue to be at the lower-end of the RMB22.5-23.5bn range, which is in line with our expectation, due to the softer-than-expected performance of mobile game business.For 4Q23E, we forecast total revenue to grow by 3% YoY to RMB6.3bn, primarily supported by growth of ad/VAS revenue (+25%/18% YoY) but partially offset by a decline in mobile games revenue (-5% YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) – Game Business Weighed on Revenue Growth Despite Resilient Ad and VAS Business

<ul><li>CTGR reported a 10.31% YoY increase in 3Q23 electricity generation, with wind and solar power showing robust growth.</li><li>Cumulatively, from 1Q23 to 3Q23, the company’s electricity generation grew by 13.36% YoY to 40.03bn kWh.</li><li>We remain optimistic about CTGR’s full-year power generation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CTGR reported a 10.31% YoY increase in 3Q23 electricity generation, with wind and solar power showing robust growth.Cumulatively, from 1Q23 to 3Q23, the company’s electricity generation grew by 13.36% YoY to 40.03bn kWh.We remain optimistic about CTGR’s full-year power generation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) – 3Q23 Preview: Loss Reduction Remains on Track

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s due to PDD’s overseas performance and price sensitive consumers.</li>
<li>Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe to bypass the investigation on Chinese export subsidies.</li>
<li>ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy and, 2,000 employees may lose their jobs.</li>
</ul>


PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s due to PDD’s overseas performance and price sensitive consumers.
Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe to bypass the investigation on Chinese export subsidies.
ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy and, 2,000 employees may lose their jobs.


China Consumption Weekly (4 Dec 2023): PDD, Alibaba, AliHealth, Great Wall Motor, ByteDance

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

<ul>
<li>BILI reported 2Q23 top-line in-line and non-GAAP net profit 7% better than consensus.  However, gaming revenue was weak, causing BILI to revise down its full-year revenue guidance.</li>
<li>We believe e-commerce ads could become a new near-term driving force, but the rapid growth of game-related ads might fade post-Q3. </li>
<li>Also, the significant consolidation of ACG games could affect BILI’s future game performance. We maintain our US$ 12.3 TP and SELL rating.</li>
</ul>


BILI reported 2Q23 top-line in-line and non-GAAP net profit 7% better than consensus.  However, gaming revenue was weak, causing BILI to revise down its full-year revenue guidance.
We believe e-commerce ads could become a new near-term driving force, but the rapid growth of game-related ads might fade post-Q3. 
Also, the significant consolidation of ACG games could affect BILI’s future game performance. We maintain our US$ 12.3 TP and SELL rating.


[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) Review]: E-Commerce Ads Aren’t Sufficient to Hide Other Issues

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bilibili (BILI US)

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation

Bilibili's Q3 results disappoint due to ineffective investment in game studio. Analysts are bearish on their game pipeline and maintain a SELL...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) – Game Business Weighed on Revenue Growth Despite Resilient Ad and VAS Business

We maintain our total revenue forecast largely unchanged and see Bili remain on track for breakeven by endFY24. We maintain our SOTP-based TP of...

CMB International

Bilibili (BILI US) – 3Q23 Preview: Loss Reduction Remains on Track

Cumulatively, from 1Q23 to 3Q23, the company’s electricity generation grew by 13.36% YoY to 40.03bn kWh. We remain optimistic about CTGR’s full...

CMB International

China Consumption Weekly (4 Dec 2023): PDD, Alibaba, AliHealth, Great Wall Motor, ByteDance

PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s. Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe. ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy.

Ming Lu

[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) Review]: E-Commerce Ads Aren’t Sufficient to Hide Other Issues

We believe e-commerce ads could become a new driving force, but the rapid growth of game-related ads might fade post-Q3. Also, the consolidation of...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation

​Bilibili's Q3 results disappoint due to ineffective investment in game studio. Analysts are bearish on their game pipeline and maintain a SELL...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) – Game Business Weighed on Revenue Growth Despite Resilient Ad and VAS Business

We maintain our total revenue forecast largely unchanged and see Bili remain on track for breakeven by endFY24. We maintain our SOTP-based TP of...

CMB International

Bilibili (BILI US) – 3Q23 Preview: Loss Reduction Remains on Track

Cumulatively, from 1Q23 to 3Q23, the company’s electricity generation grew by 13.36% YoY to 40.03bn kWh. We remain optimistic about CTGR’s full...

CMB International

China Consumption Weekly (4 Dec 2023): PDD, Alibaba, AliHealth, Great Wall Motor, ByteDance

PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s. Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe. ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy.

Ming Lu

[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) Review]: E-Commerce Ads Aren’t Sufficient to Hide Other Issues

We believe e-commerce ads could become a new driving force, but the rapid growth of game-related ads might fade post-Q3. Also, the consolidation of...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili's Q3 results disappoint due to ineffective investment in game studio. Analysts are bearish on their game pipeline and maintain a SELL...