China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BILI reported 2Q23 top-line in-line and non-GAAP net profit 7% better than consensus.  However, gaming revenue was weak, causing BILI to revise down its full-year revenue guidance.</li>
<li>We believe e-commerce ads could become a new near-term driving force, but the rapid growth of game-related ads might fade post-Q3. </li>
<li>Also, the significant consolidation of ACG games could affect BILI’s future game performance. We maintain our US$ 12.3 TP and SELL rating.</li>
</ul>


BILI reported 2Q23 top-line in-line and non-GAAP net profit 7% better than consensus.  However, gaming revenue was weak, causing BILI to revise down its full-year revenue guidance.
We believe e-commerce ads could become a new near-term driving force, but the rapid growth of game-related ads might fade post-Q3. 
Also, the significant consolidation of ACG games could affect BILI’s future game performance. We maintain our US$ 12.3 TP and SELL rating.


[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) Review]: E-Commerce Ads Aren’t Sufficient to Hide Other Issues

<ul>
<li>We were invited to BILI’s 2023 investor day, during which BILI management presented several catalysts. </li>
<li>However, most of these catalysts appear to be minor. BILI management is fully aware of the challenges in the industry.</li>
<li>We maintain a SELL rating, and investors may consider shorting BILI after &lt;Uma Musume&gt; is launched.</li>
</ul>


We were invited to BILI’s 2023 investor day, during which BILI management presented several catalysts. 
However, most of these catalysts appear to be minor. BILI management is fully aware of the challenges in the industry.
We maintain a SELL rating, and investors may consider shorting BILI after &lt;Uma Musume&gt; is launched.


[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3)Update]: Still Struggling to Balance Growth and Monetization

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.</li>
<li>Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.</li>
<li>BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.</li>
</ul>


BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.
Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.
BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.


BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

<ul>
<li>We cut our revenue estimations for 2H23, mainly due to increased uncertainty surrounding the launch of "Uma Musume." </li>
<li>We also lower our estimations for live streaming due to concerns about macro factors. We slightly raise our estimations for BILI's advertising business...</li>
<li>...as we anticipate that it will benefit from gaming and e-commerce. Our rev./non-GAAP net income are 1.0% and (6.4%) vs cons in 2Q23. Cut TP to $12.3, maintaining "Sell" rating.</li>
</ul>


We cut our revenue estimations for 2H23, mainly due to increased uncertainty surrounding the launch of "Uma Musume." 
We also lower our estimations for live streaming due to concerns about macro factors. We slightly raise our estimations for BILI's advertising business...
...as we anticipate that it will benefit from gaming and e-commerce. Our rev./non-GAAP net income are 1.0% and (6.4%) vs cons in 2Q23. Cut TP to $12.3, maintaining "Sell" rating.


[Bilibili (BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) TP Change]: The Launch Of "Uma Musume" May Face More Delay

<ul>
<li>Further evidence of BILI’s user base peaking reinforces our bearish view on its growth outlook.</li>
<li>BILI’s business model is broken and we believe significant downsizing is unavoidable in the next 12- 18 months to achieve profitability.</li>
<li>The company will survive as a leaner and slightly profitable business valued at high single-digit P/E. We still see tremendous downside from here and advise investors to avoid the stock.</li>
</ul>


Further evidence of BILI’s user base peaking reinforces our bearish view on its growth outlook.
BILI’s business model is broken and we believe significant downsizing is unavoidable in the next 12- 18 months to achieve profitability.
The company will survive as a leaner and slightly profitable business valued at high single-digit P/E. We still see tremendous downside from here and advise investors to avoid the stock.


BILIBILI (BILI US): Cracks in Business Model

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) Review]: E-Commerce Ads Aren’t Sufficient to Hide Other Issues

We believe e-commerce ads could become a new driving force, but the rapid growth of game-related ads might fade post-Q3. Also, the consolidation of...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3)Update]: Still Struggling to Balance Growth and Monetization

We were invited to BILI’s 2023 investor day, during which BILI management presented several catalysts. Most of these catalysts appear to be minor....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Simply achieving breakeven can't justify BILI's US$10bn market cap. Expect the company to be a leaner, profitable company yet without bright...

Eric Chen

[Bilibili (BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) TP Change]: The Launch Of "Uma Musume" May Face More Delay

We cut our revenue estimations for 2H23, mainly due to increased uncertainty surrounding the launch of "Uma Musume." Our rev./non-GAAP net income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

BILIBILI (BILI US): Cracks in Business Model

BILI's business model is broken and the odds are high for a downsizing in its attempt to achieve profitability. We still see tremendous downside to...

Eric Chen

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