Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Local news reported that &lt;Project: Three Kingdom Ncard&gt;, a derivative card game of its &lt;Three Kingdom MDTX&gt; IP, might be released in C4Q25. </li>
<li>&lt;Ncard&gt; fills the air pocket in BILI's game pipeline. We thus raised BILI's TP from US$22.0 to US$ 24.0 and maintain BUY rating.</li>
<li>We thus raised BILI's TP from US$22.0 to US$ 24.0 and maintain BUY rating.</li>
</ul>


Local news reported that &lt;Project: Three Kingdom Ncard&gt;, a derivative card game of its &lt;Three Kingdom MDTX&gt; IP, might be released in C4Q25. 
&lt;Ncard&gt; fills the air pocket in BILI's game pipeline. We thus raised BILI's TP from US$22.0 to US$ 24.0 and maintain BUY rating.
We thus raised BILI's TP from US$22.0 to US$ 24.0 and maintain BUY rating.


[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: C2Q25 Preview: New Game Emerged for 4Q Launch

<ul>
<li>With our strong endorsement of BILI's traffic and advertising story, we are constantly watching the development of its game pipeline, which is a near term drag. </li>
<li>The popularity of extraction shooter game &lt;Escape from Duckov&gt; on STEAM is unlikely to generate meaningful tractions. </li>
<li>The acceleration of game code approval still leaves the question of what kind of game BILI will be launching;  We maintain BUY on BILI at TP of US$22.</li>
</ul>


With our strong endorsement of BILI's traffic and advertising story, we are constantly watching the development of its game pipeline, which is a near term drag. 
The popularity of extraction shooter game &lt;Escape from Duckov&gt; on STEAM is unlikely to generate meaningful tractions. 
The acceleration of game code approval still leaves the question of what kind of game BILI will be launching;  We maintain BUY on BILI at TP of US$22.


[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) Company Update]: Revenue Deceleration Is Still Likely to Happen

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>"VTuber" (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anycolor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36618:1" rel="noopener">Anycolor (5032 JP)</a> was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.</li>
<li>Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym2/128782/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">result</a>, <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym3/128783/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>) and <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/198000/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised its full-year forecast</a> to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.</li>
<li>The company also announced it is preparing a <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/198002/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Section Transfer application</a>, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.</li>
</ul>


"VTuber" (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company Anycolor (5032 JP) was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.
Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (result, presentation) and revised its full-year forecast to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.
The company also announced it is preparing a Section Transfer application, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.


2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.</li>
<li>Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.</li>
<li>BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.</li>
</ul>


BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.
Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.
BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.


BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY and its largest business, value-added services, increased by 24% YoY.</li>
<li>SAIC president, Mr. Jia, removed 63 mid-level managers in the passenger car department.</li>
<li>Mengniu raised a profit warning that net profit will plunge by 95% - 99% in 2024.</li>
</ul>


In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY and its largest business, value-added services, increased by 24% YoY.
SAIC president, Mr. Jia, removed 63 mid-level managers in the passenger car department.
Mengniu raised a profit warning that net profit will plunge by 95% - 99% in 2024.


China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: C2Q25 Preview: New Game Emerged for 4Q Launch

Local news reports potential release of , a derivative card game filling air pocket in BILI's game pipeline, prompting raise in TP to US$24.0 and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) Company Update]: Revenue Deceleration Is Still Likely to Happen

Despite concerns about its game pipeline, BILI's strong traffic and advertising story make it a buy with a target price of US$22.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

ANYCOLOR (5032) is a curious company. "Expensive at 9x forward revs, but it sports a "Rule of 148" to April 2023, so 42x EPSe is not overly...

Travis Lundy

BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Simply achieving breakeven can't justify BILI's US$10bn market cap. Expect the company to be a leaner, profitable company yet without bright...

Eric Chen

China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY. SAIC removed 63 managers in the passenger car department. Mengtniu raised a profit warning.

Ming Lu

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Market Cap (USDm)

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[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: C2Q25 Preview: New Game Emerged for 4Q Launch

​Local news reports potential release of , a derivative card game filling air pocket in BILI's game pipeline, prompting raise in TP to US$24.0 and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) Company Update]: Revenue Deceleration Is Still Likely to Happen

​Despite concerns about its game pipeline, BILI's strong traffic and advertising story make it a buy with a target price of US$22.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

ANYCOLOR (5032) is a curious company. "Expensive at 9x forward revs, but it sports a "Rule of 148" to April 2023, so 42x EPSe is not overly...

Travis Lundy

BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Simply achieving breakeven can't justify BILI's US$10bn market cap. Expect the company to be a leaner, profitable company yet without bright...

Eric Chen

China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY. SAIC removed 63 managers in the passenger car department. Mengtniu raised a profit warning.

Ming Lu

Local news reports potential release of , a derivative card game filling air pocket in BILI's game pipeline, prompting raise in TP to US$24.0 and...

Despite concerns about its game pipeline, BILI's strong traffic and advertising story make it a buy with a target price of US$22.