Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Kura Sushi is a dinky (~$540M market cap) sushi business that I have reported on for a little over one year.</li><li>The US subsidiary is das kind (German for ‘the child’ because, why not) of a well-capitalised parent with over 450 stores in Japan.</li><li>It’s a proof of concept venture in a new market, with a tried-and-tested business model, and a parent that provides ample liquidity to its fledging offspring.</li></ul>

Kura Sushi is a dinky (~$540M market cap) sushi business that I have reported on for a little over one year.The US subsidiary is das kind (German for ‘the child’ because, why not) of a well-capitalised parent with over 450 stores in Japan.It’s a proof of concept venture in a new market, with a tried-and-tested business model, and a parent that provides ample liquidity to its fledging offspring.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Monday's announcements is 'social e-commerce' business <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enigmo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7036:1" rel="noopener">Enigmo (3665 JP)</a> and tech and auto materials company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR (4185 JP)</a> which has seen a 35-40% slump in auto-related demand. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/000/original/2020-09-15_05-00-30.png?1600113643" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159000"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/001/original/2020-09-15_05-08-17.png?1600114115" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159001"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p><hr><p><strong>IMPROVING</strong> -37% of quarterly results, 61% of annual forecasts/revisions and 40% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. Only 10% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter. Most of the Results metrics were positive for the first time in many months; revisions are still trending negatively.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>41 Quarterly Results</strong></p><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 44% Positive / 20% Neutral / 37% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change: </strong>+0.9 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> +5.8% Quarter YoY / +5.6% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> 1.5ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 10%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p>23 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 22% Positive / 17% Neutral / 61% Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 50% Positive / 10% Neutral / 40% Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.5 points</li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Monday's announcements is 'social e-commerce' business Enigmo (3665 JP) and tech and auto materials company JSR (4185 JP) which has seen a 35-40% slump in auto-related demand. Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATSIMPROVING -37% of quarterly results, 61% of annual forecasts/revisions and 40% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. Only 10% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter. Most of the Results metrics were positive for the first time in many months; revisions are still trending negatively.41 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 44% Positive / 20% Neutral / 37% Negative

Average Results Score Change: +0.9 points

Average % Change in Revenue: +5.8% Quarter YoY / +5.6% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: 1.5ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 10%
23 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 22% Positive / 17% Neutral / 61% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 50% Positive / 10% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.5 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​14 - Tsuruha, Kura Sushi, Arcland Sakamoto, JSR

Japan

KURA CORPORATION operates a revolving sushi restaurant chain based in Osaka. The Company operates its own stores.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kura Sushi Inc (2695 JP)

KRUS: Kura's Roll Keeps Rolling

Kura Sushi is a dinky (~$540M market cap) sushi business that I have reported on for a little over one year. The US subsidiary is das kind (German...

Investment Talk

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/14 - Tsuruha, Kura Sushi, Arcland Sakamoto, JSR

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS PERCENTAGES -50% of quarterly results, 66% of annual forecasts/revisions and 69% of interim forecasts...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

KRUS: Kura's Roll Keeps Rolling

Kura Sushi is a dinky (~$540M market cap) sushi business that I have reported on for a little over one year. The US subsidiary is das kind (German...

Investment Talk

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​14 - Tsuruha, Kura Sushi, Arcland Sakamoto, JSR

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS PERCENTAGES -50% of quarterly results, 66% of annual forecasts/revisions and 69% of interim forecasts...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/14 - Tsuruha, Kura Sushi, Arcland Sakamoto, JSR