Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>98 days since Russia invaded Ukraine and there is yet no end to the war in sight.</li>
<li>We concluded that the market remains on course for a global recession down the road.</li>
<li>India and Indonesia should be a better bond destination, in our view, for those who must keep their bond portfolio invested.</li>
</ul>


98 days since Russia invaded Ukraine and there is yet no end to the war in sight.
We concluded that the market remains on course for a global recession down the road.
India and Indonesia should be a better bond destination, in our view, for those who must keep their bond portfolio invested.


Bond Market Monitor: Not Out of the Woods

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>After 3 months of consistent decline, our China Property Sentiment Indicator is showing notable signs of recovery</li>
<li>News attribution suggests this is primarily driven by decreasing negative coverage as the Evergrande liquidity crisis was averted limiting broader contagion; continued momentum on developer spin-offs of property management subsidiaries; and strong Golden Week consumption metrics related to home furnishings &amp; building products (a secondary parameter in our indicator)</li>
<li>Our text mining already incorporates recent negative news on shrinking land premiums, as well as coverage on (expectedly) heavy discounting during Golden Week sales; but the overall tone of coverage remains "less negative" in the month-to-date</li>
<li>The TMI China Property Sentiment Indicator has been 58% correlated with Chinese real estate equities (via CHIR ETF), 40%-54% with Chinese HY (via KCCB ETF), and 65% with copper prices (on a T24M basis)</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


After 3 months of consistent decline, our China Property Sentiment Indicator is showing notable signs of recovery
News attribution suggests this is primarily driven by decreasing negative coverage as the Evergrande liquidity crisis was averted limiting broader contagion; continued momentum on developer spin-offs of property management subsidiaries; and strong Golden Week consumption metrics related to home furnishings &amp; building products (a secondary parameter in our indicator)
Our text mining already incorporates recent negative news on shrinking land premiums, as well as coverage on (expectedly) heavy discounting during Golden Week sales; but the overall tone of coverage remains "less negative" in the month-to-date
The TMI China Property Sentiment Indicator has been 58% correlated with Chinese real estate equities (via CHIR ETF), 40%-54% with Chinese HY (via KCCB ETF), and 65% with copper prices (on a T24M basis)
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots: China Property Sentiment Indicators Recover Post "Three Red Lines" & Evergrande Drama

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>Hong Kong property short call in the sub index is starting to pan out after hitting the 40,000 ideal turn and top target.</p><p>This bet was partially to pair with our A and H share long positioning and act as a catalyst for our HSI offset short as well as pinpoint key level in overbought mainland names like KWG and Country Garden and the ever elusive Evergrande.</p><p>We have made a bear case for HK property stemming from our bullish US yield call and increased odds of the Hong Kong property sub index…</p>

Hong Kong property short call in the sub index is starting to pan out after hitting the 40,000 ideal turn and top target.This bet was partially to pair with our A and H share long positioning and act as a catalyst for our HSI offset short as well as pinpoint key level in overbought mainland names like KWG and Country Garden and the ever elusive Evergrande.We have made a bear case for HK property stemming from our bullish US yield call and increased odds of the Hong Kong property sub index…

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>We screened for names that brokeout on strong volume yesterday. We define a breakout when a stock hits its 30-day high and has not hit a 30-day high in the last rolling 30-days. This way we avoid momentum names that are setting new highs each day and therefore we get a real breakout.</p><h2>Screen Criteria</h2><ol>
<li>Universe is Asia including Japan with Mkt-cap above 200bn USD</li>
<li>Yesterday's intraday high set a new 30-day high and over the last rolling 30 days a new high was not set. </li>
<li>Volume was greater than 1.5…</li>
</ol>

We screened for names that brokeout on strong volume yesterday. We define a breakout when a stock hits its 30-day high and has not hit a 30-day high in the last rolling 30-days. This way we avoid momentum names that are setting new highs each day and therefore we get a real breakout.Screen Criteria
Universe is Asia including Japan with Mkt-cap above 200bn USD
Yesterday's intraday high set a new 30-day high and over the last rolling 30 days a new high was not set. 
Volume was greater than 1.5…


Names that Brokeout Yesterday 7/20/2017 in Asia - 4 HK/China Property Names Made the List....

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

<p>New data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for February for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate show a further gradual deceleration in price growth overall on a year-on-year basis from +12.2% in January to +11.8% in February, though the month-on-month growth actually picked up from +0.2% to +0.3%.</p><p>Top risers on a 12-month basis now show some of the more significant declines on the month-on-month basis, while there are more cities with house prices rising.</p><p>The biggest…</p>

New data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for February for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate show a further gradual deceleration in price growth overall on a year-on-year basis from +12.2% in January to +11.8% in February, though the month-on-month growth actually picked up from +0.2% to +0.3%.Top risers on a 12-month basis now show some of the more significant declines on the month-on-month basis, while there are more cities with house prices rising.The biggest…

China Property: What's Going On With House Prices... Based On The Latest NBS Data

China

KWG Group is a leading integrated urban operator in China, primarily engaged in property development, property investment, and hotel operations. Its portfolio includes mid-to-high-end residential properties, serviced apartments, villas, office buildings, hotels, and shopping malls. The company also has diversified business segments in light asset operation, cultural tourism, education, and health. KWG Group was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.

Price Gauge
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KWG Group (1813 HK)

Bond Market Monitor: Not Out of the Woods

On-going maturity extensions and exchange offers will keep investors away from China. India and Indonesia should be a better bond destination for...

Bondcritic

TMI Snapshots: China Property Sentiment Indicators Recover Post "Three Red Lines" & Evergrande Drama

After 3 months of consistent slowdown and a dip into outright negative territory, our China Property Indicator is showing signs of recovery News...

Elan Gore

HK Property Short Gaining Traction

Hong Kong property short call in the sub index is starting to pan out after hitting the 40,000 ideal turn and top target.This bet was partially to...

Thomas Schroeder

Names that Brokeout Yesterday 7/20/2017 in Asia - 4 HK/China Property Names Made the List....

We screened for names that brokeout on strong volume yesterday. We define a breakout when a stock hits its 30-day high and has not hit a 30-day...

Custom Products Group

China Property: What's Going On With House Prices... Based On The Latest NBS Data

New data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for February for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate show a further gradual...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)