Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 9MFY26, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-shinyaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6634:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)</a> revenue grew 5% YoY to ¥127.1B driven by higher licensing fees and operating profit stood at ¥32.3B (down 1% YoY).</li>
<li>Viltepso witnessed slowing in US. Licensing income increased on higher overseas sales of Uptravi. Newly launched drugs like Vyxeos and Fintepla continue to show promise.</li>
<li>FY26 revenue guidance revised slightly upwards (¥170B from previous ¥168B) on Uptravi’s royalty income strength. Operating profit and net profit guidance remain unchanged.</li>
</ul>


In 9MFY26, Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP) revenue grew 5% YoY to ¥127.1B driven by higher licensing fees and operating profit stood at ¥32.3B (down 1% YoY).
Viltepso witnessed slowing in US. Licensing income increased on higher overseas sales of Uptravi. Newly launched drugs like Vyxeos and Fintepla continue to show promise.
FY26 revenue guidance revised slightly upwards (¥170B from previous ¥168B) on Uptravi’s royalty income strength. Operating profit and net profit guidance remain unchanged.


Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Viltepso Concerns Deepen in 9MFY26, Guidance Marginally Revised

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> has announced 9MFY26 result, with revenue, operating profit, and net profit reaching record highs, led by growth in core businesses.</li>
<li>Double-Digit growth in royalty income from HIV franchise, rebound in domestic prescription business led by Torii, and expanded sales of Cefiderocol in the U.S. and EU drove 9MFY26 performance.</li>
<li>With high base effect for Xocova ending, and new growth drivers remaining intact, Shionogi’s financial performance to improve from FY27. The company is expecting few new launches during FY28–32.</li>
</ul>



Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) has announced 9MFY26 result, with revenue, operating profit, and net profit reaching record highs, led by growth in core businesses.
Double-Digit growth in royalty income from HIV franchise, rebound in domestic prescription business led by Torii, and expanded sales of Cefiderocol in the U.S. and EU drove 9MFY26 performance.
With high base effect for Xocova ending, and new growth drivers remaining intact, Shionogi’s financial performance to improve from FY27. The company is expecting few new launches during FY28–32.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Decent 9MFY26 Result; No Revision in FY Forecast; Accelerate Growth Ahead

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg reported that an entity owned by the CEO is considering an MBO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a> at a valuation of around JPY450 billion.</li>
<li>Assuming that the rumoured valuation refers to market cap based on outstanding shares, it suggests an offer around JPY6,000, a 15.4% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>Hisamitsu confirmed that it plans to announce an MBO today. An offer of JPY6,000 is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.  </li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reported that an entity owned by the CEO is considering an MBO of Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) at a valuation of around JPY450 billion.
Assuming that the rumoured valuation refers to market cap based on outstanding shares, it suggests an offer around JPY6,000, a 15.4% premium to the last close.
Hisamitsu confirmed that it plans to announce an MBO today. An offer of JPY6,000 is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.  


Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): An Imminent MBO at a Rumoured JPY450 Billion Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> is acquiring rare neurodegenerative disease drug Radicava for $2.5B. The transaction is expected to be immediately accretive in FY27, adding ~$700M in annual global sales.</li>
<li>This acquisition will solidify Shionogi’s strategic focus in rare disease and immediately establish a strong rare disease commercial platform in the U.S. market.</li>
<li>Shionogi has received approval in Japan for inlicensed drug Zurzuvae for the indication of depression and depressive state.</li>
</ul>



Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) is acquiring rare neurodegenerative disease drug Radicava for $2.5B. The transaction is expected to be immediately accretive in FY27, adding ~$700M in annual global sales.
This acquisition will solidify Shionogi’s strategic focus in rare disease and immediately establish a strong rare disease commercial platform in the U.S. market.
Shionogi has received approval in Japan for inlicensed drug Zurzuvae for the indication of depression and depressive state.


Shionogi (4507 JP): $2.5B ALS Drug Buyout and New Approval To Accelerate Portfolio Diversification

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-shinyaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6634:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricor-therapeutics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37671:1" rel="noopener">Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR US)</a> announced positive topline results from its pivotal Phase 3 HOPE-3 trial evaluating Deramiocel.  </li>
<li>Capricor plans to submit its response to the Complete Response Letter incorporating HOPE-3 data, following prior alignment with FDA.</li>
<li>The next big trigger for the stock would be the approval of Deramiocel and RGX-121 by FDA followed by their commercialization.</li>
</ul>



Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP) and Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR US) announced positive topline results from its pivotal Phase 3 HOPE-3 trial evaluating Deramiocel.  
Capricor plans to submit its response to the Complete Response Letter incorporating HOPE-3 data, following prior alignment with FDA.
The next big trigger for the stock would be the approval of Deramiocel and RGX-121 by FDA followed by their commercialization.


Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Deramiocel Data Positive, Approval and Commercialization Next Big Trigger

Japan

Kyowa Hakko Kirin Co.,Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals. The Company's products include a protein produced by genetic recombination technology, an anti-anemia agent that attaches new sugar chains through partial modification of the amino acid sequence of human erythropoietin (EPO), and a glycoprotein, human erythropoietin.

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Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP)

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Viltepso Concerns Deepen in 9MFY26, Guidance Marginally Revised

Nippon Shinyaku's revenue grew 5% in 9MFY26, driven by higher licensing fees and higher sales of ethical drugs. Viltepso face pressure in US. FY26...

Tina Banerjee

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Decent 9MFY26 Result; No Revision in FY Forecast; Accelerate Growth Ahead

Shionogi reports record high revenue, operating and net profits in 9MFY26, driven by growth in core businesses. The company is expecting few new...

Tina Banerjee

Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): An Imminent MBO at a Rumoured JPY450 Billion Valuation

Hisamitsu confirmed that it plans to announce an MBO today. An offer at the rumoured JPY450bn valuation is attractive compared to precedent...

Arun George

Shionogi (4507 JP): $2.5B ALS Drug Buyout and New Approval To Accelerate Portfolio Diversification

Shionogi acquires rare neurodegenerative drug Radicava for $2.5B, which is expected to boost annual global sales by $700M. The company got...

Tina Banerjee

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Deramiocel Data Positive, Approval and Commercialization Next Big Trigger

Nippon Shinyaku and Capricor announce positive Phase 3 results for Deramiocel, with potential FDA approval and commercialization on the horizon....

Tina Banerjee

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Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Viltepso Concerns Deepen in 9MFY26, Guidance Marginally Revised

​Nippon Shinyaku's revenue grew 5% in 9MFY26, driven by higher licensing fees and higher sales of ethical drugs. Viltepso face pressure in US. FY26...

Tina Banerjee

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Decent 9MFY26 Result; No Revision in FY Forecast; Accelerate Growth Ahead

​Shionogi reports record high revenue, operating and net profits in 9MFY26, driven by growth in core businesses. The company is expecting few new...

Tina Banerjee

Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): An Imminent MBO at a Rumoured JPY450 Billion Valuation

Hisamitsu confirmed that it plans to announce an MBO today. An offer at the rumoured JPY450bn valuation is attractive compared to precedent...

Arun George

Shionogi (4507 JP): $2.5B ALS Drug Buyout and New Approval To Accelerate Portfolio Diversification

​Shionogi acquires rare neurodegenerative drug Radicava for $2.5B, which is expected to boost annual global sales by $700M. The company got...

Tina Banerjee

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Deramiocel Data Positive, Approval and Commercialization Next Big Trigger

​Nippon Shinyaku and Capricor announce positive Phase 3 results for Deramiocel, with potential FDA approval and commercialization on the horizon....

Tina Banerjee

Nippon Shinyaku's revenue grew 5% in 9MFY26, driven by higher licensing fees and higher sales of ethical drugs. Viltepso face pressure in US. FY26...

Shionogi reports record high revenue, operating and net profits in 9MFY26, driven by growth in core businesses. The company is expecting few new...

Shionogi acquires rare neurodegenerative drug Radicava for $2.5B, which is expected to boost annual global sales by $700M. The company got...

Nippon Shinyaku and Capricor announce positive Phase 3 results for Deramiocel, with potential FDA approval and commercialization on the horizon....