Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cj-cheiljedang-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1970:1" rel="noopener">CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS)</a></strong>   </li>
<li>For the nineteen weeks since inception ended 31 March the combined innovation portfolio was +2.4%, versus DJIA -1.4%, S&amp;P500 +3.6%, Nasdaq +9.7%, Russell2000 -2.6%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +4.9%, all in US$ terms</li>
<li>For the nineteen since inception ended 31 March the small cap portfolio was up 8.0%, the mid cap portfolio was up 3.2% and the large cap portfolio was up 2.1%</li>
</ul>


The three companies we write about this week are Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) , LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) and CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS)   
For the nineteen weeks since inception ended 31 March the combined innovation portfolio was +2.4%, versus DJIA -1.4%, S&amp;P500 +3.6%, Nasdaq +9.7%, Russell2000 -2.6%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +4.9%, all in US$ terms
For the nineteen since inception ended 31 March the small cap portfolio was up 8.0%, the mid cap portfolio was up 3.2% and the large cap portfolio was up 2.1%


The Innovations Portfolios - Week Nineteen

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get more defensive.</li>
<li>As long as the S&amp;P 500 is below Wednesdays high of 4040 we continue to believe the bears are in control -- stay defensive.</li>
<li>Even if there is a reversal, we still expect 4165-4200 on SPX to cap upside for 2023. We highlight many buy opportunities within Consumer Staples</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get more defensive.
As long as the S&amp;P 500 is below Wednesdays high of 4040 we continue to believe the bears are in control -- stay defensive.
Even if there is a reversal, we still expect 4165-4200 on SPX to cap upside for 2023. We highlight many buy opportunities within Consumer Staples


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA All Testing Resistance; Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Buy Staples

<ul>
<li>On March 2 we discussed how the pullback in global equities was in full swing as Europe/UK indexes displayed 4.5-month uptrend breaks, joining the pullback in the MSCI ACWI.</li>
<li>At the time, we expected this pullback in the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) to move down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low) or $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>ACWI-US broke below $86 and is approaching $84. $84 will be an important support level to monitor, but if it breaks, the $75-77 level is still firmly in the cards.</li>
</ul>


On March 2 we discussed how the pullback in global equities was in full swing as Europe/UK indexes displayed 4.5-month uptrend breaks, joining the pullback in the MSCI ACWI.
At the time, we expected this pullback in the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) to move down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low) or $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
ACWI-US broke below $86 and is approaching $84. $84 will be an important support level to monitor, but if it breaks, the $75-77 level is still firmly in the cards.


Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

<ul>
<li>In our latest int'l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US</li>
<li>Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.</li>
<li>We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.</li>
</ul>


In our latest int'l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US
Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.
We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.


MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities

France

L'Oreal SA manufactures, markets, and distributes health and beauty aids.  The Company produces colorants, styling, and hair care products for professional hairdressers, hair care, cosmetics, and skin care products and perfumes for consumers, luxury cosmetics and perfumes sold through department stores, perfumeries and travel stores, and dermatological and pharmaceutical products.

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L'Oreal SA (OR FP)

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Nineteen

For the nineteen since inception ended 31 March the innovation small cap portfolio was up 8.0%, the innovation mid cap portfolio was up 3.2% and...

Pyari Menon

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA All Testing Resistance; Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Buy Staples

Last week (3/21) we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the $SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which we noted...

Vermilion Research

Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

Europe/UK STOXX Europe 50/FTSE 100 with concerning breakdowns below 3800 and 7700, joining the pullback that had already started in the MSCI ACWI....

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities

$93 on $ACWI has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and it now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun....

Vermilion Research

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