Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.


Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Demand outside gold remains soft; co‑funding costs show early easing; asset quality stress is shifting, with vehicle finance and micro‑LAP emerging as pain points.</li>
<li>The divergence across NBFC subsegments (gold, affordable housing, vehicle finance, micro-LAP) is widening, making sector-level staging less helpful - selective bets will matter more.</li>
<li>We remain biased toward affordable HFCs, gold financiers (to ride momentum), and select diversified NBFCs. Vigilance is needed to combat NIM pressure and rising unsecured stress.</li>
</ul>


Demand outside gold remains soft; co‑funding costs show early easing; asset quality stress is shifting, with vehicle finance and micro‑LAP emerging as pain points.
The divergence across NBFC subsegments (gold, affordable housing, vehicle finance, micro-LAP) is widening, making sector-level staging less helpful - selective bets will matter more.
We remain biased toward affordable HFCs, gold financiers (to ride momentum), and select diversified NBFCs. Vigilance is needed to combat NIM pressure and rising unsecured stress.


NBFC Q2FY26 Outlook - Rate Cuts, Credit Stress & Selective Wins in NBFCs

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Most corporate-sponsored NBFCs have struggled to deliver consistent value creation over the past decade, barring a few exceptions such as BAF and CIFC</li><li>This has been despite enjoying huge structural advantage (vs peers) like low cost of funds and liquidity backstop</li><li>In recent years, several corporates have either revived/restructured their NBFCs or acquired/set up new ones</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Most corporate-sponsored NBFCs have struggled to deliver consistent value creation over the past decade, barring a few exceptions such as BAF and CIFCThis has been despite enjoying huge structural advantage (vs peers) like low cost of funds and liquidity backstopIn recent years, several corporates have either revived/restructured their NBFCs or acquired/set up new onesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Diversified NBFCs: Corporate sponsored NBFCs: call option at formation lap

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Tata Capital Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-capital-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45653:1" rel="noopener">Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN)</a> is the third-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India. It is seeking to raise US$1.7 billion. </li>
<li>I had previously discussed the investment case in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tata-capital-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:197180" rel="noopener">Tata Capital IPO: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>The RHP updates show that the fundamentals remain mixed. Positives include large size, mid-tier growth rates and good asset quality. Negatives include below peer average NIM, interest spread and ROA. </li>
</ul>



Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is the third-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India. It is seeking to raise US$1.7 billion. 
I had previously discussed the investment case in Tata Capital IPO: The Investment Case. 
The RHP updates show that the fundamentals remain mixed. Positives include large size, mid-tier growth rates and good asset quality. Negatives include below peer average NIM, interest spread and ROA. 


Tata Capital IPO: RHP Update Points to Mixed Fundamentals

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-capital-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45653:1" rel="noopener">Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN)</a> is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR155bn (US$1.75bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 1,384bn (US$15.6bn).</li>
<li>The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in June 2026.</li>
<li>The stock should be added to the Large Cap segment in the AMFI Classification in January and to the Nifty Next 50 Index in March.</li>
</ul>



Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR155bn (US$1.75bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 1,384bn (US$15.6bn).
The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in June 2026.
The stock should be added to the Large Cap segment in the AMFI Classification in January and to the Nifty Next 50 Index in March.


Tata Capital IPO: Big Listing, Big Valuation, Small Float

India

L&T Finance Holdings Limited is a financial holding company. The Company offers a diverse range of financial products and services across the corporate, retail, and infrastructure finance sectors, as well as fund products and investment services.

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L&T Finance Holdings (LTFH IN)

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

NBFC Q2FY26 Outlook - Rate Cuts, Credit Stress & Selective Wins in NBFCs

Soft demand outside gold, easing co-funding costs, shifting asset quality stress in vehicle finance and micro-LAP. Divergence in NBFC subsegments...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Diversified NBFCs: Corporate sponsored NBFCs: call option at formation lap

Most corporate-sponsored NBFCs have struggled to deliver consistent value creation over the past decade, barring a few exceptions such as BAF and CIFC

HDFC Securities

Tata Capital IPO: RHP Update Points to Mixed Fundamentals

Tata Capital, the third-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC), is seeking to raise US$1.7 billion. In this note, I examine the latest...

Arun George

Tata Capital IPO: Big Listing, Big Valuation, Small Float

Tata Cap is looking to raise up to US$1.75bn at a valuation of US$15.6bn. A free float of less than 15% will keep the stock out of one major global...

Brian Freitas

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Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

NBFC Q2FY26 Outlook - Rate Cuts, Credit Stress & Selective Wins in NBFCs

​Soft demand outside gold, easing co-funding costs, shifting asset quality stress in vehicle finance and micro-LAP. Divergence in NBFC subsegments...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Diversified NBFCs: Corporate sponsored NBFCs: call option at formation lap

Most corporate-sponsored NBFCs have struggled to deliver consistent value creation over the past decade, barring a few exceptions such as BAF and CIFC

HDFC Securities

Tata Capital IPO: RHP Update Points to Mixed Fundamentals

Tata Capital, the third-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC), is seeking to raise US$1.7 billion. In this note, I examine the latest...

Arun George

Tata Capital IPO: Big Listing, Big Valuation, Small Float

Tata Cap is looking to raise up to US$1.75bn at a valuation of US$15.6bn. A free float of less than 15% will keep the stock out of one major global...

Brian Freitas

Soft demand outside gold, easing co-funding costs, shifting asset quality stress in vehicle finance and micro-LAP. Divergence in NBFC subsegments...