Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.</li>
<li>We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.


Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor Sector Hits Historic Highs: Record allocations highlight investor confidence in the sector as second phase of bull market drives allocations to fresh peak.</li>
<li>Country Dynamics Shift: Peak Ownership in Taiwan, USA, Netherlands, while German Semiconductor holdings see strategic pullback through Infineon closures.  </li>
<li>TSMC, ASML, and NVIDIA establish dominance, reflecting investors’ preference for companies at the forefront of technological innovation, while traditional players like Infineon, Intel, and Texas Instruments face declining investor interest.</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor Sector Hits Historic Highs: Record allocations highlight investor confidence in the sector as second phase of bull market drives allocations to fresh peak.
Country Dynamics Shift: Peak Ownership in Taiwan, USA, Netherlands, while German Semiconductor holdings see strategic pullback through Infineon closures.  
TSMC, ASML, and NVIDIA establish dominance, reflecting investors’ preference for companies at the forefront of technological innovation, while traditional players like Infineon, Intel, and Texas Instruments face declining investor interest.


Global Semiconductors: Winners Emerge as Fund Allocations Hit Record Highs

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>2023 WFE revenues amounted to $93 billion, representing a YoY decrease of just ~1%. Most had expected a 20% YoY decline at the start of last year</li>
<li>We forecast 2024 WFE revenues to grow modestly by around 5% YoY</li>
<li>China's WFE spend in 2023 was ~1.5x Taiwan &amp; ~2x Korea</li>
</ul>


2023 WFE revenues amounted to $93 billion, representing a YoY decrease of just ~1%. Most had expected a 20% YoY decline at the start of last year
We forecast 2024 WFE revenues to grow modestly by around 5% YoY
China's WFE spend in 2023 was ~1.5x Taiwan &amp; ~2x Korea


Semiconductor WFE 2023 In Review, 2024 Outlook

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Lattice is just too expensive for what it is. It’s one of the highest multiples in the space, but I acknowledge we are closer to the trough than the peak.</li><li><p>Tokyo Electron continues to be bullish high aspect etch and reports that they are winning in DRAM and hopefully in NAND in the future.</p></li><li><p>Arista says that AI revenue is yet to come, and 800G will mostly be in 2025, not 2024. The market got ahead of itself.</p></li></ul>

Lattice is just too expensive for what it is. It’s one of the highest multiples in the space, but I acknowledge we are closer to the trough than the peak.Tokyo Electron continues to be bullish high aspect etch and reports that they are winning in DRAM and hopefully in NAND in the future.Arista says that AI revenue is yet to come, and 800G will mostly be in 2025, not 2024. The market got ahead of itself.

Earnings (LSCC, ANET, GFS, Tokyo Electron, SITM, ENTG, AMAT)

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A bottom-up driven scan of stock charts shows over 29 stocks with bullish technical patterns consisting of uptrends or breakouts from multi-month bases with strong potential upsides.</li>
<li>Bullish patterns are broadly based, primarily concentrated in technology and cyclicals, which argue for a continuation of the AI-related bull and an economic rebound.</li>
<li>This bottom-up analysis also pointed to bullish macro conclusions about the economy.</li>
</ul>


A bottom-up driven scan of stock charts shows over 29 stocks with bullish technical patterns consisting of uptrends or breakouts from multi-month bases with strong potential upsides.
Bullish patterns are broadly based, primarily concentrated in technology and cyclicals, which argue for a continuation of the AI-related bull and an economic rebound.
This bottom-up analysis also pointed to bullish macro conclusions about the economy.


United States

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

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Lam Research (LRCX US)

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

Global Semiconductors: Winners Emerge as Fund Allocations Hit Record Highs

Semiconductor Sector Hits Historic Highs: Record allocations highlight investor confidence in the sector as second phase of bull market drives...

Steven Holden

Semiconductor WFE 2023 In Review, 2024 Outlook

2023 WFE revenues $93 billion, -1%YoY. Most had expected a 20% YoY decline. We expect 2024 WFE revenues to grow by ~5% YoY. China's WFE spend in...

William Keating

Earnings (LSCC, ANET, GFS, Tokyo Electron, SITM, ENTG, AMAT)

Lattice is just too expensive for what it is. It’s one of the highest multiples in the space, but I acknowledge we are closer to the trough than...

Fabricated Knowledge

29 Reasons to Be Bullish

A bottom-up scan of stock charts shows over 29 stocks with bullish technical patterns consisting of uptrends or breakouts from multi-month bases...

Cam Hui

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