HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Guangdong Chj Industry Co A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>CHJ’s business model integrates franchise stores and self-operated stores. Franchising as the main approach is beneficial for achieving rapid expansion, while self-operation as a supplement helps to enhance brand image.</li>
<li>Due to increasing competition, future growth of CHJ may not be benefit from the high gold prices, but may be under pressure due to rising raw material costs/reduced customer demand.</li>
<li>We think valuation of CHJ should be lower than Laopu, but could be higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhou-liu-fu-jewellery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43706:1" rel="noopener">Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK)</a> due to CHJ’s higher performance growth in the short term.  </li>
</ul>


CHJ’s business model integrates franchise stores and self-operated stores. Franchising as the main approach is beneficial for achieving rapid expansion, while self-operation as a supplement helps to enhance brand image.
Due to increasing competition, future growth of CHJ may not be benefit from the high gold prices, but may be under pressure due to rising raw material costs/reduced customer demand.
We think valuation of CHJ should be lower than Laopu, but could be higher than Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK) due to CHJ’s higher performance growth in the short term.  


Pre-IPO Guangdong CHJ Industry - The Business Model, the Concerns and the Outlook

Shenzhen Hipine Precision Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Although high gold price helps drive revenue growth as Hipine generally adjusts selling prices, consumer sentiment and demand for purchasing non-essential items such as precious metal watch would be suppressed.</li>
<li>The biggest challenge is that ceiling in gold watch industry is not high. It’s not easy to create new imagination space in a segmented market, which would affect valuation expansion.</li>
<li>Due to the concerns on the future growth potential and profitability, we'e not optimistic about the outlook of Hipine. We think the valuation of Hipine could be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Although high gold price helps drive revenue growth as Hipine generally adjusts selling prices, consumer sentiment and demand for purchasing non-essential items such as precious metal watch would be suppressed.
The biggest challenge is that ceiling in gold watch industry is not high. It’s not easy to create new imagination space in a segmented market, which would affect valuation expansion.
Due to the concerns on the future growth potential and profitability, we'e not optimistic about the outlook of Hipine. We think the valuation of Hipine could be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Shenzhen Hipine Precision Technology (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The value of Laopu lies in its innovation in business model,successfully breaking away from the low-profit attribute of the industry by following the pricing and operation methods of luxury goods.</li>
<li>However, Laopu cannot enjoy the valuation system of luxury brands because it cannot “escape” gold price cycle.So, when valuation of Laopu approaches that of luxury brands, it has overvaluation risks.</li>
<li>Current valuation has priced in overseas expansion, which however isn’t a done deal.During upward cycle of gold prices,it’s easy to optimistically linearly extrapolate Laopu’s growth potential<em>.Valuation</em> faces downward revision risk  </li>
</ul>


The value of Laopu lies in its innovation in business model,successfully breaking away from the low-profit attribute of the industry by following the pricing and operation methods of luxury goods.
However, Laopu cannot enjoy the valuation system of luxury brands because it cannot “escape” gold price cycle.So, when valuation of Laopu approaches that of luxury brands, it has overvaluation risks.
Current valuation has priced in overseas expansion, which however isn’t a done deal.During upward cycle of gold prices,it’s easy to optimistically linearly extrapolate Laopu’s growth potential.Valuation faces downward revision risk  


Laopu Gold (6181.HK) - The Business Model, the Concerns, the Valuation Outlook

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite short-term demand headwinds, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> remains well-positioned for structural growth via product premiumization(e.g.,CTF Rouge,Palace Museum), omni-channel scaling, and selective global expansion in culturally aligned markets.</li>
<li>Company continues to defend margins through product mix optimization (fixed-price gold up to 25.6% of gold RSV),disciplined SG&amp;A control, and aggressive retail network rationalization.</li>
<li>Trading at ~26xx TTM P/E, it commands premium to peers, backed by industry-leading ROE (~25%),brand strength,and high dividend payout (~79%), though clear earnings rebound remains key to justify the multiple.</li>
</ul>


Despite short-term demand headwinds, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) remains well-positioned for structural growth via product premiumization(e.g.,CTF Rouge,Palace Museum), omni-channel scaling, and selective global expansion in culturally aligned markets.
Company continues to defend margins through product mix optimization (fixed-price gold up to 25.6% of gold RSV),disciplined SG&amp;A control, and aggressive retail network rationalization.
Trading at ~26xx TTM P/E, it commands premium to peers, backed by industry-leading ROE (~25%),brand strength,and high dividend payout (~79%), though clear earnings rebound remains key to justify the multiple.


Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.

Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The performance slowdown and decrease in number of newly opened stores from 2023 to 2024 was due to the rapid surge in gold prices,which would put franchise model at risk.</li>
<li>Future performance of Zhou Liu Fu may not be benefit from the high gold prices, but could be under pressure due to rising raw material costs and reduced customer demand.</li>
<li>Valuation of Zhou Liu Fu could be lower than peers and the industry average. A comfortable P/E range could be 10-15x if based on 2025 net profit.</li>
</ul>


The performance slowdown and decrease in number of newly opened stores from 2023 to 2024 was due to the rapid surge in gold prices,which would put franchise model at risk.
Future performance of Zhou Liu Fu may not be benefit from the high gold prices, but could be under pressure due to rising raw material costs and reduced customer demand.
Valuation of Zhou Liu Fu could be lower than peers and the industry average. A comfortable P/E range could be 10-15x if based on 2025 net profit.


Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

China

Lao Feng Xiang Co., Ltd. processes and sells gold and jewelry products.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company manufactures and sells wooden, mechanical and cosmetic pencils, as well as manufactures and sells pencil making machinery and paints, and general trading.

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Lao Feng Xiang (600612 CH)

Pre-IPO Guangdong CHJ Industry - The Business Model, the Concerns and the Outlook

CHJ's business model combine franchise and self-operated store for rapid expansion/brand image enhancement.Future growth may be impacted by...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Shenzhen Hipine Precision Technology (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

High gold price drive revenue growth for Hipine but consumer sentiment and limited market size will hinder valuation expansion. Outlook for Hipine...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Laopu Gold (6181.HK) - The Business Model, the Concerns, the Valuation Outlook

Laopu's innovative business model mimics luxury brands, but overvaluation risks arise due to gold price cycles impact and uncertain overseas...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.

Chow Tai fook will report its H1FY26 results on 12 June 2025. We look forward to following metrics - a) Ongoing product and pricing optimisation,...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Rapid surge in gold prices poses risk to Zhou Liu Fu's franchise model. The future performance may suffer from rising raw material costs and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Guangdong CHJ Industry - The Business Model, the Concerns and the Outlook

​CHJ's business model combine franchise and self-operated store for rapid expansion/brand image enhancement.Future growth may be impacted by...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Shenzhen Hipine Precision Technology (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​High gold price drive revenue growth for Hipine but consumer sentiment and limited market size will hinder valuation expansion. Outlook for Hipine...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Laopu Gold (6181.HK) - The Business Model, the Concerns, the Valuation Outlook

​Laopu's innovative business model mimics luxury brands, but overvaluation risks arise due to gold price cycles impact and uncertain overseas...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.

Chow Tai fook will report its H1FY26 results on 12 June 2025. We look forward to following metrics - a) Ongoing product and pricing optimisation,...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Rapid surge in gold prices poses risk to Zhou Liu Fu's franchise model. The future performance may suffer from rising raw material costs and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CHJ's business model combine franchise and self-operated store for rapid expansion/brand image enhancement.Future growth may be impacted by...

High gold price drive revenue growth for Hipine but consumer sentiment and limited market size will hinder valuation expansion. Outlook for Hipine...

Laopu's innovative business model mimics luxury brands, but overvaluation risks arise due to gold price cycles impact and uncertain overseas...

Rapid surge in gold prices poses risk to Zhou Liu Fu's franchise model. The future performance may suffer from rising raw material costs and...