HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While the HSI lost 5.1% YTD, the bottom-most 5 constituents were down an average of 45.8%. As we approach the year-end, we examine whether there is room for performance revival.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-aaf6a428-6d9d-4e25-80e7-18533df0745e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> is the best bet, as the anti-monopoly penalty is now behind it. The sell-off has also moderated, suggesting the market is refocusing on the merits.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a> has a significant PER compression, leaving room for a rebound. However, the risk is more in a potential earnings downgrade. </li>
</ul>


While the HSI lost 5.1% YTD, the bottom-most 5 constituents were down an average of 45.8%. As we approach the year-end, we examine whether there is room for performance revival.

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) is the best bet, as the anti-monopoly penalty is now behind it. The sell-off has also moderated, suggesting the market is refocusing on the merits.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) has a significant PER compression, leaving room for a rebound. However, the risk is more in a potential earnings downgrade. 


Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Share price has been punished, as there have been plenty pre-IPO investors who took profit, although operating numbers are actually doing quite well. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a> is different from <a target="_blank">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>, as the former is more of a global luxury house than a goldsmith.</li>
<li>At 7x PER and a 10% dividend yield, combined with the calming down of the sellers' volume, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a> may actually offer a value. </li>
</ul>


Share price has been punished, as there have been plenty pre-IPO investors who took profit, although operating numbers are actually doing quite well. 

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) is different from Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), as the former is more of a global luxury house than a goldsmith.
At 7x PER and a 10% dividend yield, combined with the calming down of the sellers' volume, Laopu Gold (6181 HK) may actually offer a value. 


Laopu Gold (6181): Sellers Have Calmed Down

<ul>
<li>October has been a poor month in the last five years, with an average return of -6.5%. This highlights the risk for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> next month.   </li>
<li>Factors including higher interest rates, the US mid-term election, elevated crude oil prices, and concerns about the AI investment outlook are negative issues. </li>
<li>November and December are, interestingly, the good months in the last five years. Aggressive players may buy back after a possible plunge in October.</li>
</ul>


October has been a poor month in the last five years, with an average return of -6.5%. This highlights the risk for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) next month.   
Factors including higher interest rates, the US mid-term election, elevated crude oil prices, and concerns about the AI investment outlook are negative issues. 
November and December are, interestingly, the good months in the last five years. Aggressive players may buy back after a possible plunge in October.


HK Strategy: The Forthcoming Black October?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> has been active since the start of the year in selling down some of its stake in its investee companies to raise over US$3.3bn cash.</li>
<li>Tencent did report a negative free cash flow quarter in 2Q26. Given the elevated spending, it might look to sell some more of its stakes.</li>
<li>Tencent owned over US$66bn worth of shares in over 39 companies, with the bulk of it stemming from US, US-HK listed and overseas listed companies.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) has been active since the start of the year in selling down some of its stake in its investee companies to raise over US$3.3bn cash.
Tencent did report a negative free cash flow quarter in 2Q26. Given the elevated spending, it might look to sell some more of its stakes.
Tencent owned over US$66bn worth of shares in over 39 companies, with the bulk of it stemming from US, US-HK listed and overseas listed companies.


Aequitas: Tencent Investee Selldown - Start of Another US$70bn Selldown Wave

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luk-fook-holdings-international-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19054:1" rel="noopener">Luk Fook (590 HK)</a>'s growth surpassed that of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>'s in 2H FY26, providing evidence for its underlying operational resilience.  </li>
<li>CTF's 44.1% RSV growth for 1 Apr-31 May in HK is poised well for LF, given LF's higher exposure to HK, generating 69.4% of FY26 segment profit. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luk-fook-holdings-international-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19054:1" rel="noopener">Luk Fook (590 HK)</a>'s valuations are attractive, with a PER of 5.8x, a yield of 8.8%, and a P/B of 0.8x for FY27, vs. 11.1x, 6.8%, and 3.3% for CTF.</li>
</ul>



Luk Fook (590 HK)'s growth surpassed that of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)'s in 2H FY26, providing evidence for its underlying operational resilience.  
CTF's 44.1% RSV growth for 1 Apr-31 May in HK is poised well for LF, given LF's higher exposure to HK, generating 69.4% of FY26 segment profit. 

Luk Fook (590 HK)'s valuations are attractive, with a PER of 5.8x, a yield of 8.8%, and a P/B of 0.8x for FY27, vs. 11.1x, 6.8%, and 3.3% for CTF.


China Pair Trade Update: Long Luk Fook (590 HK), Short Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK)

China

Laopu Gold is a leading Chinese designer, manufacturer, and retailer of heritage gold jewelry, offering products with Chinese culture-inspired designs and craftsmanship. The company sells pure gold, gem-set, and non-gold jewelry through both offline retail stores and online platforms, and provides maintenance and repair services. Founded in 2009, its headquarters are located in Beijing, China.

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Laopu Gold (6181 HK)

HK Strategy: Losers Turn Winners?

As we approach year-end, the laggards this year may potentially revive given their underperformance. Trip.com appears to be best positioned, while...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Laopu Gold (6181): Sellers Have Calmed Down

Share price was punished, as there have been plenty pre-IPO investors who took profit, although operating numbers are actually doing quite well. 7x...

Henry Soediarko

HK Strategy: The Forthcoming Black October?

With the HSI losing 2.5% so far today (the first trading day of Oct), it will be interesting to boomerang this Insight. Based on historical...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Aequitas: Tencent Investee Selldown - Start of Another US$70bn Selldown Wave

Tencent (700 HK) has been active since the start of the year in selling down some of its stake in its investee companies to raise over US$3.3bn cash.

Sumeet Singh

China Pair Trade Update: Long Luk Fook (590 HK), Short Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK)

Luk Fook's 1Q FY27 retail sales revenue surged 32% YoY, beating Chow Tai Fook's Apr-May YoY growth of 14.7%. While its HK& Macao growth of 41% is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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