Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>India moves to largest underweight country holding among EM Value managers.  Current underweight the highest on record.</li>
<li>Among Value managers, India saw net fund outflows of $322m, the underweight increase by -1.92% and a further 7.7% of managers move to underweight over the last 6-months.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> is the key underweight, whilst <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8950:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-airtel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/larsen-toubro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2499:1" rel="noopener">Larsen &amp; Toubro </a>have been avoided by EM Value managers altogether.</li>
</ul>


India moves to largest underweight country holding among EM Value managers.  Current underweight the highest on record.
Among Value managers, India saw net fund outflows of $322m, the underweight increase by -1.92% and a further 7.7% of managers move to underweight over the last 6-months.

Reliance Industries (RIL IN) is the key underweight, whilst Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN)Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) and Larsen &amp; Toubro have been avoided by EM Value managers altogether.


Value Funds Move to Record Underweight in India

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.</li>
<li>Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.</li>
<li>Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.
Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.
Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.


MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

<p>The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.</p>

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<p>Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.</p>

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) / Equity Capital Markets

Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) (7535956Z IN)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-coking-coal-limited-bccl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45272:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) (7535956Z IN)</a> raised about US$119m in its India IPO in Jan 2026. The lockup on its promoter, Coal India is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>BCCL is a Coal India subsidiary engaged in mining of coking coal, producing grades of coking coal, non-coking coal, and washed coal, primarily for use in steel and power sectors.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) (7535956Z IN) raised about US$119m in its India IPO in Jan 2026. The lockup on its promoter, Coal India is set to expire soon.
BCCL is a Coal India subsidiary engaged in mining of coking coal, producing grades of coking coal, non-coking coal, and washed coal, primarily for use in steel and power sectors.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Bharat Coking Coal Ltd IPO Lockup - US$1.3bn Lockup Release; Near-Term Selldown Unlikely

India

Larsen & Toubro Limited (L&T) is an Indian multinational conglomerate specializing in engineering, procurement, construction (EPC), hi-tech manufacturing, and services. The company operates across diverse segments including infrastructure, hydrocarbon, power, heavy engineering, defense engineering, IT and technology services, financial services, and development projects. L&T was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

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Larsen & Toubro (LTOD LI)

Value Funds Move to Record Underweight in India

India moves to the largest underweight country holding among EM Value managers. Current underweight the highest on record.

Steven Holden

MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, and recommend adding exposure to...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing important intermediate-term support levels of $99, $54, and $76.50...

Vermilion Research

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

Aequitas: Bharat Coking Coal Ltd IPO Lockup - US$1.3bn Lockup Release; Near-Term Selldown Unlikely

Bharat Coking Coal Ltd (BCCL) raised about US$119m in its India IPO in Jan 2026. The lockup on its promoter, Coal India is set to expire soon.

Akshat Shah

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