Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NVDA opening its AI ecosystem to the likes of Fujitsu and Qualcomm.</li>
<li>Intel's make-or-break 18A process Panther lake seems to be well received at first look.</li>
<li>Toyota announces Y3trn worth of loans for its Y6trn Industries acquisition, removing concerns for raise.</li>
</ul>


NVDA opening its AI ecosystem to the likes of Fujitsu and Qualcomm.
Intel's make-or-break 18A process Panther lake seems to be well received at first look.
Toyota announces Y3trn worth of loans for its Y6trn Industries acquisition, removing concerns for raise.


Japan Morning Connection: Computex Fails to Excite, but Dip Buyers Stepping in OTD

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

<ul>
<li>Power/Analog semi names were buoyed by Microchip Tech comments for a downcycle inflection.</li>
<li>JP Heavies MHI and KHI both failed to impress on Friday, but MHI may see interest on news for possible jet export.</li>
<li>Trump looking to cut pharma costs by 30-80% will add to the uncertainty for JP pharma with high medicare and medicaid exposure.</li>
</ul>


Power/Analog semi names were buoyed by Microchip Tech comments for a downcycle inflection.
JP Heavies MHI and KHI both failed to impress on Friday, but MHI may see interest on news for possible jet export.
Trump looking to cut pharma costs by 30-80% will add to the uncertainty for JP pharma with high medicare and medicaid exposure.


Japan Morning Connection: US-China Talks End on Positive Note Adding to the Bullish Tone to Start

<ul>
<li>Expect weakness after poor SMCI numbers sends AI related plays lower in late trading including NVDA and DELL.</li>
<li>Qorvo bucking the trend with a better-then-expected outlook despite Apple uncertainty in China.</li>
<li>Sony looking to spin off its semiconductor solutions business a watershed for unlocking shareholder value.</li>
</ul>


Expect weakness after poor SMCI numbers sends AI related plays lower in late trading including NVDA and DELL.
Qorvo bucking the trend with a better-then-expected outlook despite Apple uncertainty in China.
Sony looking to spin off its semiconductor solutions business a watershed for unlocking shareholder value.


Japan Morning Connection: SMCI Numbers Casts a Gloomy Shadow over All Things AI to Start Today

<ul>
<li>Widespread weakness in tech/AI related plays after US curbs H20 exports setting a dour tone for JP SPE.</li>
<li>The US looking to suspend the SLR rule for Treasuries could see yields drop as banks do the work of the Fed.</li>
<li>HF's zeroed in Suzuki secondary sparks squeeze and biggest volumes of the year.</li>
</ul>


Widespread weakness in tech/AI related plays after US curbs H20 exports setting a dour tone for JP SPE.
The US looking to suspend the SLR rule for Treasuries could see yields drop as banks do the work of the Fed.
HF's zeroed in Suzuki secondary sparks squeeze and biggest volumes of the year.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

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Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Computex Fails to Excite, but Dip Buyers Stepping in OTD

May be further upside for Fujitsu following NVDA NVLink announcement, Intel's new product recieves positive feedback, Toyota discussing loan for...

Andrew Jackson

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Japan Morning Connection: US-China Talks End on Positive Note Adding to the Bullish Tone to Start

Tech names outperformed the market led by analog/MPU/power semiconductor manufacturer Microchip Technology. Uncertainty for JP Pharma as Trump...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: SMCI Numbers Casts a Gloomy Shadow over All Things AI to Start Today

Poor SMCI numbers will reflect poorly on AI related plays, Qorvo stands out with strong outlook despite Apple uncertainty, Sony's spin off of...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

Tech and AI weakness after H20 chipset restrictions, discussion of dropping the SLR rule for Treasuries may cause volatility for financials,...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Computex Fails to Excite, but Dip Buyers Stepping in OTD

May be further upside for Fujitsu following NVDA NVLink announcement, Intel's new product recieves positive feedback, Toyota discussing loan for...

Andrew Jackson

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Japan Morning Connection: US-China Talks End on Positive Note Adding to the Bullish Tone to Start

Tech names outperformed the market led by analog/MPU/power semiconductor manufacturer Microchip Technology. Uncertainty for JP Pharma as Trump...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: SMCI Numbers Casts a Gloomy Shadow over All Things AI to Start Today

​Poor SMCI numbers will reflect poorly on AI related plays, Qorvo stands out with strong outlook despite Apple uncertainty, Sony's spin off of...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

Tech and AI weakness after H20 chipset restrictions, discussion of dropping the SLR rule for Treasuries may cause volatility for financials,...

Andrew Jackson

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Poor SMCI numbers will reflect poorly on AI related plays, Qorvo stands out with strong outlook despite Apple uncertainty, Sony's spin off of...