Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is recently a growing view that the ETF operators (KODEX and TIGER) will conduct most of the rebalancing trading on February 9 to avoid excessive tracking errors.</li>
<li>
LG Chem will face an outflow of ₩0.38T (0.8% of SO and 1.37x ADTV). LG Energy would be 0.36x ADTV and 0.31% of SO, assuming a DTV of 2M shares.</li>
<li>This is definitely a clear long/short setup opportunity: LG Energy LONG/LG Chem SHORT position. Alternatively, we can also consider approaching this event with Battery ETFs LONG/LG Chem Short setup.</li>
</ul>


There is recently a growing view that the ETF operators (KODEX and TIGER) will conduct most of the rebalancing trading on February 9 to avoid excessive tracking errors.

LG Chem will face an outflow of ₩0.38T (0.8% of SO and 1.37x ADTV). LG Energy would be 0.36x ADTV and 0.31% of SO, assuming a DTV of 2M shares.
This is definitely a clear long/short setup opportunity: LG Energy LONG/LG Chem SHORT position. Alternatively, we can also consider approaching this event with Battery ETFs LONG/LG Chem Short setup.


LG Energy & LG Chem Passive Flow In/Out Estimations & Trading Considerations on February 9

<ul>
<li>The screening period for the upcoming rebalancing is May 3-31. LG Energy satisfies the 3-month minimum listing requirement, so it becomes eligible to join the Index in this rebalancing.</li>
<li>LG Energy will likely receive an inflow of ₩44.6B, 0.04% of SO. Considering its tight real-world float (less than 6%), it would still be something we don't want to overlook.</li>
<li>What is critical is an estimated outflow size of Celltrion. It would be about the same amount, but relative to its ADTV, it will be -0.26x.</li>
</ul>


The screening period for the upcoming rebalancing is May 3-31. LG Energy satisfies the 3-month minimum listing requirement, so it becomes eligible to join the Index in this rebalancing.
LG Energy will likely receive an inflow of ₩44.6B, 0.04% of SO. Considering its tight real-world float (less than 6%), it would still be something we don't want to overlook.
What is critical is an estimated outflow size of Celltrion. It would be about the same amount, but relative to its ADTV, it will be -0.26x.


FnGuide TIGER Top 10 Rebalancing: LG Energy IN & Celltrion OUT

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the KRX New Deal indices ended on 31 January. The changes will be announced toward the end of February and implemented on 10 March.</li>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)</a> to be included in the Battery and BBIG indices, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-pay-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29675:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay (377300 KS)</a> should be added to the Internet Index.</li>
<li>The largest selling is expected to be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a> due to a potential downweight in the Internet index and a deletion from the BBIG index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the KRX New Deal indices ended on 31 January. The changes will be announced toward the end of February and implemented on 10 March.
We expect LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) to be included in the Battery and BBIG indices, while Kakao Pay (377300 KS) should be added to the Internet Index.
The largest selling is expected to be on Douzone Bizon (012510 KS) due to a potential downweight in the Internet index and a deletion from the BBIG index.


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview (March): More Flow for LG Energy

<ul>
<li>For this March rebalancing, the screening base date is January 28, which is the last trading day of January. So, the 3-month rebalancing review period is now done.</li>
<li>Other than LG Energy (+₩146,2B), we should pay the most attention to AfreecaTV (+1.70x), Chunbo (+0.36x), Douzone Bizon (-4.82x), and SoulBrain (-0.99x).</li>
<li>In addition, large-cap stocks such as SKIET (+0.25x), Ecopro BM (+0.10x), LG Chem (-0.62x), and Posco Chemical (-0.30x) will likely draw much attention.</li>
</ul>


For this March rebalancing, the screening base date is January 28, which is the last trading day of January. So, the 3-month rebalancing review period is now done.
Other than LG Energy (+₩146,2B), we should pay the most attention to AfreecaTV (+1.70x), Chunbo (+0.36x), Douzone Bizon (-4.82x), and SoulBrain (-0.99x).
In addition, large-cap stocks such as SKIET (+0.25x), Ecopro BM (+0.10x), LG Chem (-0.62x), and Posco Chemical (-0.30x) will likely draw much attention.


KRX K-New Deal Index Screening Period Ended: Rebalancing Changes & Passive Impacts Update

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
 Korean prefs have outperformed ords on a YTD basis, probably due to the LG Energy listing. Many of KOSPI's large-cap stocks have seen an outflow to make room for LGES.</li>
<li>
Samsung Electronics 1P and Mirae Asset 2PB have a negative pref-ord YTD yield difference and are currently below-1.0σ on a 20-day MA.</li>
<li>Mirae widened the pref-ord spread by announcing an ord-only share buyback. So it should be seen as an outlier. Then, virtually all that remains is the Samsung Electronics 1P.</li>
</ul>



 Korean prefs have outperformed ords on a YTD basis, probably due to the LG Energy listing. Many of KOSPI's large-cap stocks have seen an outflow to make room for LGES.

Samsung Electronics 1P and Mirae Asset 2PB have a negative pref-ord YTD yield difference and are currently below-1.0σ on a 20-day MA.
Mirae widened the pref-ord spread by announcing an ord-only share buyback. So it should be seen as an outlier. Then, virtually all that remains is the Samsung Electronics 1P.


Korea Large-Cap Prefs: Pref-Ord YTD Yield Difference & 20-Day MA Sigma

South Korea

LG Chem Ltd. is a chemical manufacturer. The Company's products include petrochemicals, plastic resins, and engineering plastics. LG Chem also produces industrial and electronic materials.

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LG Chem (051915 KS)

LG Energy & LG Chem Passive Flow In/Out Estimations & Trading Considerations on February 9

This post estimates the passive flows of the local battery ETFs for LG Energy and LG Chem on February 9 and examines trading considerations.

Sanghyun Park

FnGuide TIGER Top 10 Rebalancing: LG Energy IN & Celltrion OUT

This post previews the upcoming rebalancing of the FnGuide Top 10 Index (TIGER ETF, KS 292150), whose AUM currently amounts to ₩1T. At this point,...

Sanghyun Park

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview (March): More Flow for LG Energy

There are many changes to the KRX New Deal indices at the March rebal. The largest inflow is on LG Energy. The largest buying impact is on...

Brian Freitas

KRX K-New Deal Index Screening Period Ended: Rebalancing Changes & Passive Impacts Update

The KRX K-New Deal Index's screening period ended last Friday. This post updates the screening results and passive impacts.

Sanghyun Park

Korea Large-Cap Prefs: Pref-Ord YTD Yield Difference & 20-Day MA Sigma

This post examines Korea's large-cap preferred shares for their pref-ord YTD yield difference and sigma on a 20-day moving average.

Sanghyun Park

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