Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

In the attached strategy document we expand upon themes and opportunities in materials, technology and financials as well as an overview of opportunities in EM, Europe, and Japan.Emerging Markets: Breaking out to all-time highs, EM is unfolding as global leadership. Take advantage of pullbacks.Europe: Two words: pullback opportunity. For the past three months, Europe peeled back from the global advance, as prices diverged from bullish headlines. We view this as a welcomed event. Long-term technicals do confirm the improving headlines, but timing matters. And the STOXX 600’s test of the 200-day MA represents a timely entry point.  Just note, Europe is not a relative leader. That status belongs to EM (above).Japan: Japan represents an overlooked opportunity. With EM leading, and Europe crowding headlines, Japan is steadily emerging from a two-year base pattern, setting the stage for another leg higher

In the attached strategy document we expand upon themes and opportunities in materials, technology and financials as well as an overview of opportunities in EM, Europe, and Japan.Emerging Markets: Breaking out to all-time highs, EM is unfolding as global leadership. Take advantage of pullbacks.Europe: Two words: pullback opportunity. For the past three months, Europe peeled back from the global advance, as prices diverged from bullish headlines. We view this as a welcomed event. Long-term technicals do confirm the improving headlines, but timing matters. And the STOXX 600’s test of the 200-day MA represents a timely entry point.  Just note, Europe is not a relative leader. That status belongs to EM (above).Japan: Japan represents an overlooked opportunity. With EM leading, and Europe crowding headlines, Japan is steadily emerging from a two-year base pattern, setting the stage for another leg higher

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM, Pullback Opportunities in Europe, Japan Poised to Breakout

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The stunning EM equity rally YTD led by Asia has been justified by improving earnings/macro momentum and underpinned by tumbling IG and HY spreads.EM credit growth has accelerated from 5-6% in late 2016 to about 8% now while global trade volume growth has surged from flat to about 5% y/y.There are signs of complacency - cumulative portfolio inflows exceed $190bn since December and the global fund overweight in EM currencies in July approached historical highs last seen in 2011.If we see a…

The stunning EM equity rally YTD led by Asia has been justified by improving earnings/macro momentum and underpinned by tumbling IG and HY spreads.EM credit growth has accelerated from 5-6% in late 2016 to about 8% now while global trade volume growth has surged from flat to about 5% y/y.There are signs of complacency - cumulative portfolio inflows exceed $190bn since December and the global fund overweight in EM currencies in July approached historical highs last seen in 2011.If we see a…

India Vulnerable to EM Reversal, Li-Ion Batteries Set to Dominate Grid Storage...

Notable themes:<ul><li>
Sector leadership is concentrated. The MSCI EM Index’s YTD advance, which is pushing through to all-time highs, is driven primary by tech. This sector accounts for a 26% weighting in the Index, and it is the only sector trading at 12-month relative strength highs. That’s the rear-view mirror take. What’s the technical outlook for tech? We remain overweight, keeping in mind the sector is ripe for a pause/correction (based on how far it is trading above its 200-day MA). Long-term…</li></ul>

Notable themes:
Sector leadership is concentrated. The MSCI EM Index’s YTD advance, which is pushing through to all-time highs, is driven primary by tech. This sector accounts for a 26% weighting in the Index, and it is the only sector trading at 12-month relative strength highs. That’s the rear-view mirror take. What’s the technical outlook for tech? We remain overweight, keeping in mind the sector is ripe for a pause/correction (based on how far it is trading above its 200-day MA). Long-term…

Bullish technicals continue to support our call to overweight EM. We highlight actionable themes, as well as pullback opportunities in Europe, European luxury/apparel, UK homebuilders, EM chemicals, Japanese chemicals, and Japanese tech stocks.

Bullish technicals continue to support our call to overweight EM. We highlight actionable themes, as well as pullback opportunities in Europe, European luxury/apparel, UK homebuilders, EM chemicals, Japanese chemicals, and Japanese tech stocks.

Int'l Compass: Overweight EM; Actionable Themes in Europe and Japan

Investing thematically in the electric/autonomous vehicle trends covered regularly since 2013 has proved profitable, with many battery, lithium and image sensor names up 3-4x.The MSCI auto component sector continues to outperform carmakers as auto complexity grows - Valeo estimates its powertrain content for a plug-in hybrid is 9x more valuable than a regular car.Volvo’s announcement that it was making all its output at least hybrid from 2019 was less significant than Baidu offering its AI…

Investing thematically in the electric/autonomous vehicle trends covered regularly since 2013 has proved profitable, with many battery, lithium and image sensor names up 3-4x.The MSCI auto component sector continues to outperform carmakers as auto complexity grows - Valeo estimates its powertrain content for a plug-in hybrid is 9x more valuable than a regular car.Volvo’s announcement that it was making all its output at least hybrid from 2019 was less significant than Baidu offering its AI…

Electrification and Autonomous Trends Reshaping Auto Industry…

South Korea

LG Chem Ltd. is a chemical manufacturer.  The Company's products include petrochemicals, plastic resins, and engineering plastics.  LG Chem also produces industrial and electronic materials.

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LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM, Pullback Opportunities in Europe, Japan Poised to Breakout

In the attached strategy document we expand upon themes and opportunities in materials, technology and financials as well as an overview of...

Vermilion Research

India Vulnerable to EM Reversal, Li-Ion Batteries Set to Dominate Grid Storage...

The stunning EM equity rally YTD led by Asia has been justified by improving earnings/macro momentum and underpinned by tumbling IG and HY...

Sean Maher

EM Leadership Screen & Chart Book

Notable themes: Sector leadership is concentrated. The MSCI EM Index’s YTD advance, which is pushing through to all-time highs, is driven primary...

Vermilion Research

Int'l Compass: Overweight EM; Actionable Themes in Europe and Japan

Bullish technicals continue to support our call to overweight EM. We highlight actionable themes, as well as pullback opportunities in Europe,...

Vermilion Research

Electrification and Autonomous Trends Reshaping Auto Industry…

Investing thematically in the electric/autonomous vehicle trends covered regularly since 2013 has proved profitable, with many battery, lithium and...

Sean Maher

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