Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. 
The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. 
This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 3 years (and implemented in its current state for 17 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. 
Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include Russian internet company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yandex-nv-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:414:1" rel="noopener">Yandex (YNDX US)</a>, Indian IT Services company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hcl-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20025:1" rel="noopener">Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN)</a>, and a return to the top 10 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>.
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup> <col> <col> <col> <col> <col> </colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">rank</td>
<td style="width: 169pt;">Name</td>
<td style="width: 119pt;">Sector</td>
<td style="width: 95pt;">Location</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">prev.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-household-health-care" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6501:1" rel="noopener">LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS)</a> </td>
<td>Consumer Staples</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Communication</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yandex-nv-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:414:1" rel="noopener">Yandex (YNDX US)</a> </td>
<td>Communication</td>
<td>Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">49</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">6</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> </td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Taiwan</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">8</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/al-rajhi-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27038:1" rel="noopener">Al Rajhi Bank (RJHI AB)</a> </td>
<td>Financials</td>
<td>Saudi Arabia</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">9</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/magazine-luiza-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27676:1" rel="noopener">Magazine Luiza SA (MGLU3 BZ)</a> </td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>Brazil</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hcl-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20025:1" rel="noopener">Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN)</a> </td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>India</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">83</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="5" style="text-align: left;">Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. 
The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. 
This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 3 years (and implemented in its current state for 17 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. 
Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include Russian internet company Yandex (YNDX US), Indian IT Services company Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN), and a return to the top 10 for TSMC (2330 TT).

      


rank
Name
Sector
Location
prev.


1

LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS) 
Consumer Staples
Korea (South)
12


2

NetEase (9999 HK) 
Communication
China
2


3

JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
10


4

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) 
Information Technology
China
4


5

Yandex (YNDX US) 
Communication
Russian Federation
49


6

New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
1


7

TSMC (2330 TT) 
Information Technology
Taiwan
16


8

Al Rajhi Bank (RJHI AB) 
Financials
Saudi Arabia
33


9

Magazine Luiza SA (MGLU3 BZ) 
Consumer Discretionary
Brazil
15


10

Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN) 
Information Technology
India
83


Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas



As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> reported its 3Q 2021 results today. The company generated sales of 10.6 trillion won (up 41.4% YoY and 6.0% lower than the consensus) and operating profit of 726.6 billion won (down 19.6% YoY and 29.6% lower than the consensus). Although LG Chem's results were stagnant in 3Q 2021, its results are likely to improve materially in 4Q 2021. The consensus currently estimates LG Chem to generate sales of 11.7 trillion won (up 31% YoY) and an operating profit of 1.2 trillion won (up 925% YoY) in 4Q 2021.LG Chem also announced <a href="https://www.chosun.com/economy/industry-company/2021/10/25/5V5L3Z7LONEFPBUA3TKQNRYS7M/?utm_source=naver&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=naver-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kwon Young-Soo</a> as the new CEO for LG Energy Solution today. Kwon Young-Soo is currently the Vice Chairman and the Chief Operating Officer (COO) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550 KS)</a>. Having worked in various companies of the LG Group for nearly 42 years, clearly Kwon Young-Soo shown a lot of loyalty to the LG Group. In addition, he has proven record of successfully leading numerous LG Group businesses. Overall, we believe that the market will have a positive view of the decision to put Kwon Young-Soo as the CEO of LG Energy Solution.At this point, it appears that the higher probability of an IPO for LG Energy Solution is sometime in 1Q 2022, rather than in November/December 2021. LG and GM have settled on a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSKBN2HF0EO" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$2 billion cost</a> related to the Bolt recall earlier this month, paving the way for an IPO in the next several months.

LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) reported its 3Q 2021 results today. The company generated sales of 10.6 trillion won (up 41.4% YoY and 6.0% lower than the consensus) and operating profit of 726.6 billion won (down 19.6% YoY and 29.6% lower than the consensus). Although LG Chem's results were stagnant in 3Q 2021, its results are likely to improve materially in 4Q 2021. The consensus currently estimates LG Chem to generate sales of 11.7 trillion won (up 31% YoY) and an operating profit of 1.2 trillion won (up 925% YoY) in 4Q 2021.LG Chem also announced Kwon Young-Soo as the new CEO for LG Energy Solution today. Kwon Young-Soo is currently the Vice Chairman and the Chief Operating Officer (COO) of LG Corp (003550 KS). Having worked in various companies of the LG Group for nearly 42 years, clearly Kwon Young-Soo shown a lot of loyalty to the LG Group. In addition, he has proven record of successfully leading numerous LG Group businesses. Overall, we believe that the market will have a positive view of the decision to put Kwon Young-Soo as the CEO of LG Energy Solution.At this point, it appears that the higher probability of an IPO for LG Energy Solution is sometime in 1Q 2022, rather than in November/December 2021. LG and GM have settled on a $2 billion cost related to the Bolt recall earlier this month, paving the way for an IPO in the next several months.

LG Chem - Major Highlights of 3Q 2021 Earnings & A New CEO for LG Energy Solution

<div class="content-highlight">
In this insight, we provide an updated SoTP valuation analysis on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550 KS)</a>. We have a positive view of this stock. Our base case valuation analysis suggests an implied price of 131,911 won per share, representing a 41% upside from current levels.
After much delay, the IPO of LG Energy Solution could finally occur in the next several months and this may be the largest ever IPO in Korea. The IPO of LG Energy Solution could be a key catalyst for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550 KS)</a> in the coming weeks. 
</div>In addition to its deep discount versus its NAV, there are also four key catalysts for the company which are as follows:<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>IPO of LG Energy Solutions</li>
<li>Potential for higher dividends</li>
<li>Improvement in balance sheet &amp; potential for higher share buybacks</li>
<li>Rising foreign ownership</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide an updated SoTP valuation analysis on LG Corp (003550 KS). We have a positive view of this stock. Our base case valuation analysis suggests an implied price of 131,911 won per share, representing a 41% upside from current levels.
After much delay, the IPO of LG Energy Solution could finally occur in the next several months and this may be the largest ever IPO in Korea. The IPO of LG Energy Solution could be a key catalyst for LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) and LG Corp (003550 KS) in the coming weeks. 
In addition to its deep discount versus its NAV, there are also four key catalysts for the company which are as follows:
IPO of LG Energy Solutions
Potential for higher dividends
Improvement in balance sheet &amp; potential for higher share buybacks
Rising foreign ownership


LG Corp: SoTP Valuation Analysis Update + Four Key Catalysts

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

With ex-dividend date coming up in Korea on 29 December, we take a look at the dividend yield differential between the common and preferred shares and the discount on the preferred shares.We recommend buying preferred shares (and hedging with the common shares) with large dividend yield differentials versus the common shares and that are trading towards the bottom of their discount range versus the common. Apart from the dividend yield pickup we also expect to earn returns on the narrowing of the discount on the preferred shares.With short selling only permitted on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22911:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> constituents, shorts selling on the preferred shares is not possible since they are not eligible for index inclusion.We see attractive risk/reward for the preferred shares on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-household-health-care" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6501:1" rel="noopener">LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electro-mechanics-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:539:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12179:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Group (002790 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-oil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1667:1" rel="noopener">S Oil Corp (010950 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a>.

With ex-dividend date coming up in Korea on 29 December, we take a look at the dividend yield differential between the common and preferred shares and the discount on the preferred shares.We recommend buying preferred shares (and hedging with the common shares) with large dividend yield differentials versus the common shares and that are trading towards the bottom of their discount range versus the common. Apart from the dividend yield pickup we also expect to earn returns on the narrowing of the discount on the preferred shares.With short selling only permitted on Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) constituents, shorts selling on the preferred shares is not possible since they are not eligible for index inclusion.We see attractive risk/reward for the preferred shares on Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS), Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS), Amorepacific Group (002790 KS), S Oil Corp (010950 KS), Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS), Samsung SDI (006400 KS) and SK Innovation (096770 KS). 

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-household-health-care" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6501:1" rel="noopener">LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS)</a> is down 22% from peak and has really taken a tumultuous fall to a point where it begs the question "Does the fall in share price justify its outlook or is LG being sold for the wrong reasons?"

LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS) is down 22% from peak and has really taken a tumultuous fall to a point where it begs the question "Does the fall in share price justify its outlook or is LG being sold for the wrong reasons?" 

LG H&H (051900) - Systematic or Unsystematic Risks Being Priced In?

South Korea

LG H&H Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes cosmetics. The Company produces whoo, o hui, sum 37, basic cosmetics, color cosmetics, and other related products. LG H&H also produces toothpaste, soap, detergents, healthy, personal care, and refreshing products.

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LG H&H (Pref) (051905 KS)

Screening for GEMs: November 2021

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

LG Chem - Major Highlights of 3Q 2021 Earnings & A New CEO for LG Energy Solution

LG Chem also announced Kwon Young-Soo as the new CEO for LG Energy Solution today. Kwon Young-Soo is currently the Vice Chairman and the Chief...

Douglas Kim

LG Corp: SoTP Valuation Analysis Update + Four Key Catalysts

In this insight, we provide an updated SoTP valuation analysis on LG Corp. Our base case valuation analysis suggests an implied price of 131,911...

Douglas Kim

Korea Preferred Shares - Trade Ideas

With dividend ex-date coming up in just over 2 months, we highlight preferred shares that trade at a big discount to the common shares and at a...

Brian Freitas

LG H&H (051900) - Systematic or Unsystematic Risks Being Priced In?

LG H&H is trading at half the valuations of its global comps. Can management right the ship or actually does it even need to?

Ken S. Kim

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