Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following existing home last week, new home sales also posted positive YoY growth. </li>
<li>LI is getting ready for its major battle of the year with BEV launch. It is focused, but we doubt it is enough;</li>
<li>MNSO guided down its C4Q24 and we believe it will miss 2025 as well. Offline grocery is under constant assault by O2O and online e-commerce. </li>
</ul>


Following existing home last week, new home sales also posted positive YoY growth. 
LI is getting ready for its major battle of the year with BEV launch. It is focused, but we doubt it is enough;
MNSO guided down its C4Q24 and we believe it will miss 2025 as well. Offline grocery is under constant assault by O2O and online e-commerce. 


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 9/52] New Home Sales Also Turned Positive YoY

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Cryptocurrencies / In Depth: How cryptocurrency gets used to move billions of yuan in and out of China</li><li>Corruption /: New probe into former Hubei leader brought down by Covid pandemic</li><li>Trade /: Washington wants to seal new trade deal with Beijing, ex-U.S. Treasury Secretary says</li></ul>

Cryptocurrencies / In Depth: How cryptocurrency gets used to move billions of yuan in and out of ChinaCorruption /: New probe into former Hubei leader brought down by Covid pandemicTrade /: Washington wants to seal new trade deal with Beijing, ex-U.S. Treasury Secretary says

CX Daily: How Cryptocurrency Gets Used to Move Billions of Yuan in and out of China 

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> has surged recently due to the announcement of its new Li i8 model, accompanied by a significant rise in implied volatility.</li>
<li>The elevated implied volatility, with one- and two-month levels above the 90th and 80th percentiles respectively, presents an opportunity for bearish and neutral investors to sell call options.</li>
<li>March and April expirations are preferred due to the earnings release in May. </li>
</ul>



Li Auto (2015 HK) has surged recently due to the announcement of its new Li i8 model, accompanied by a significant rise in implied volatility.
The elevated implied volatility, with one- and two-month levels above the 90th and 80th percentiles respectively, presents an opportunity for bearish and neutral investors to sell call options.
March and April expirations are preferred due to the earnings release in May. 


Li Auto (2015 HK): Short Calls To Capitalize on High Volatility Amid Cautious Outlook

<ul>
<li>A translated article shows why Chinese are refrained from buying new homes but not so on buying existing homes. The Chinese <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pMRYOjIIzxxU1G_J90dNvf_zUKNuU_LYOhnWrtM5O5I/edit?tab=t.0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a> is here. <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/13W_8_9qyOHx2RIOYF2rGKEyHmPDO9eO5-nE8Pa5IADk/edit?tab=t.0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">English</a> here by Qwen;</li>
<li>XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr and BYD recovered above the line post CNY in EV delivery, LI, Tesla, LEAP and Luxeed in line, AITO, Deepal and NIO are below the line;</li>
<li>CATL's JV with Didi is a serious threat to NIO.</li>
</ul>


A translated article shows why Chinese are refrained from buying new homes but not so on buying existing homes. The Chinese link is here. English here by Qwen;
XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr and BYD recovered above the line post CNY in EV delivery, LI, Tesla, LEAP and Luxeed in line, AITO, Deepal and NIO are below the line;
CATL's JV with Didi is a serious threat to NIO.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 8/52] Existing Home Recovers First Post CNY

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a> is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.</li>
<li>In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we refresh our valuation.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK) is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we refresh our valuation.


MIXUE Pre-IPO - Updated Thoughts on Valuation

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Li Auto (LI US)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 9/52] New Home Sales Also Turned Positive YoY

Latest week saw positive YoY growth in new home sales, LI prepares for major battle with BEV launch, MNSO guidance down for C4Q24 and likely to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CX Daily: How Cryptocurrency Gets Used to Move Billions of Yuan in and out of China

Cryptocurrencies / In Depth: How cryptocurrency gets used to move billions of yuan in and out of China When police in East China’s Shandong...

Caixin Global

Li Auto (2015 HK): Short Calls To Capitalize on High Volatility Amid Cautious Outlook

With premiums of up to 9% in one month (113% p.a.), Li Auto's price surge and high implied volatility create a call selling opportunity for...

Gaudenz Schneider

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 8/52] Existing Home Recovers First Post CNY

Chinese prefer buying existing homes over new ones, XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr, and BYD lead in EV delivery post CNY, CATL's JV with Didi poses a threat...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

MIXUE Pre-IPO - Updated Thoughts on Valuation

Mixue Group (MIX HK) is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 9/52] New Home Sales Also Turned Positive YoY

​Latest week saw positive YoY growth in new home sales, LI prepares for major battle with BEV launch, MNSO guidance down for C4Q24 and likely to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CX Daily: How Cryptocurrency Gets Used to Move Billions of Yuan in and out of China

Cryptocurrencies / In Depth: How cryptocurrency gets used to move billions of yuan in and out of China When police in East China’s Shandong...

Caixin Global

Li Auto (2015 HK): Short Calls To Capitalize on High Volatility Amid Cautious Outlook

With premiums of up to 9% in one month (113% p.a.), ​Li Auto's price surge and high implied volatility create a call selling opportunity for...

Gaudenz Schneider

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 8/52] Existing Home Recovers First Post CNY

​Chinese prefer buying existing homes over new ones, XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr, and BYD lead in EV delivery post CNY, CATL's JV with Didi poses a threat...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

MIXUE Pre-IPO - Updated Thoughts on Valuation

Mixue Group (MIX HK) is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

Latest week saw positive YoY growth in new home sales, LI prepares for major battle with BEV launch, MNSO guidance down for C4Q24 and likely to...

With premiums of up to 9% in one month (113% p.a.), Li Auto's price surge and high implied volatility create a call selling opportunity for...

Chinese prefer buying existing homes over new ones, XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr, and BYD lead in EV delivery post CNY, CATL's JV with Didi poses a threat...