Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> is at a pivotal stage in its transformation, and we expect it to outperform peers in the medium term.</li>
<li>Investors are seeing progress and strategic direction in three critical areas: new EV brands, increasing exports, and sustaining the success of ICE brands.</li>
<li>We are bullish about the EV capabilities of Chinese local OEMs and their ambition to enter global markets assertively. Geely Auto is one of the best plays on this theme.</li>
</ul>



Geely Auto (175 HK) is at a pivotal stage in its transformation, and we expect it to outperform peers in the medium term.
Investors are seeing progress and strategic direction in three critical areas: new EV brands, increasing exports, and sustaining the success of ICE brands.
We are bullish about the EV capabilities of Chinese local OEMs and their ambition to enter global markets assertively. Geely Auto is one of the best plays on this theme.


Geely Auto (175 HK): Initiation: A Key Play on China EV and Global Expansion Theme

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LI Auto (LI) reported C3Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income 2.0%, 68% and in line vs. our estimates. </li>
<li>We expect LI’s share price to be range bound until its BEV SUV to debut in C2Q25. Facing a crowded market</li>
<li>We raise TP from US$22 to 25 but keep rating at SELL.</li>
</ul>


LI Auto (LI) reported C3Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income 2.0%, 68% and in line vs. our estimates. 
We expect LI’s share price to be range bound until its BEV SUV to debut in C2Q25. Facing a crowded market
We raise TP from US$22 to 25 but keep rating at SELL.


[Li Auto (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) TP Change]: Excellence Under Pressure but Challenge Still Loom Big

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>LI’s revenue increased by 24% YoY in 3Q24, as deliveries climbed out of the trough.</li>
<li>LI achieved record operating profit and a record margin in 3Q24.</li>
<li>We believe the plunge after the result release just provides an upside of for the stock.</li>
</ul>


LI’s revenue increased by 24% YoY in 3Q24, as deliveries climbed out of the trough.
LI achieved record operating profit and a record margin in 3Q24.
We believe the plunge after the result release just provides an upside of for the stock.


Li Auto (LI US): Record Sales Volume in Sep and Record Operating Profit in 3Q24

<ul>
<li>MNSO US: Yonghui Supermarket's 3Q24 Revenue Falls Short of Expectations by 15%(-)</li>
<li>LI US/ NIO US : Huawei Harmony added 11,000 new orders last week, mainly due to adjustments to service expectations (///)</li>
<li>1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: In the 43rd week of electric vehicles, BYD, Xiaomi, Leap and Xpeng lead the way,but LI and NIo have reached their peaks. (/////////)</li>
</ul>


MNSO US: Yonghui Supermarket's 3Q24 Revenue Falls Short of Expectations by 15%(-)
LI US/ NIO US : Huawei Harmony added 11,000 new orders last week, mainly due to adjustments to service expectations (///)
1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: In the 43rd week of electric vehicles, BYD, Xiaomi, Leap and Xpeng lead the way,but LI and NIo have reached their peaks. (/////////)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:MNSO US/1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/ATAT US/Macro Update

<ul>
<li>NIO and XPEV intensified promotions during C3Q24 while LI moderated them. But we see LI possibly need to ramp up its promotion to stir up demand in C4Q24;</li>
<li>Trade-In has greatly stimulated EV demand and is possible to extend into 2025. But Huawei-affiliated PHEV makers are gaining share while Tesla is readying another round of innovation-led cost reduction;</li>
<li>Our TOP PICK's of the sector are BYD and Xiaomi. BYD benefits from PHEV and Xiaomi can still benefit from PHEV.</li>
</ul>


NIO and XPEV intensified promotions during C3Q24 while LI moderated them. But we see LI possibly need to ramp up its promotion to stir up demand in C4Q24;
Trade-In has greatly stimulated EV demand and is possible to extend into 2025. But Huawei-affiliated PHEV makers are gaining share while Tesla is readying another round of innovation-led cost reduction;
Our TOP PICK's of the sector are BYD and Xiaomi. BYD benefits from PHEV and Xiaomi can still benefit from PHEV.


Not All EV Makers Are Reaping the Rewards of Macro Stimulus

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

Geely Auto (175 HK): Initiation: A Key Play on China EV and Global Expansion Theme

Geely Auto poised to outperform peers with focus on new EV brands, exports, making it a top play in context of our bullish view on Chinese OEMs'...

Raj S, CA, CFA

[Li Auto (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) TP Change]: Excellence Under Pressure but Challenge Still Loom Big

LI Auto reported solid financial results for the third quarter, but its share price is expected to remain stagnant until the debut of its BEV SUV...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto (LI US): Record Sales Volume in Sep and Record Operating Profit in 3Q24

LI’s revenue increased by 24% YoY in 3Q24, as deliveries climbed out of the trough. LI achieved record operating profit and a record margin in 3Q24.

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:MNSO US/1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/ATAT US/Macro Update

Yonghui Supermarket's revenue falls short by 15%, Huawei Harmony gains 11,000 new orders, BYD and Xiaomi lead in electric vehicles.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Not All EV Makers Are Reaping the Rewards of Macro Stimulus

NIO and XPEV intensified promotions during C3Q24 while LI moderated them. But we see LI possibly ramping up its promotion to stir up demand in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Geely Auto (175 HK): Initiation: A Key Play on China EV and Global Expansion Theme

​Geely Auto poised to outperform peers with focus on new EV brands, exports, making it a top play in context of our bullish view on Chinese OEMs'...

Raj S, CA, CFA

[Li Auto (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) TP Change]: Excellence Under Pressure but Challenge Still Loom Big

​LI Auto reported solid financial results for the third quarter, but its share price is expected to remain stagnant until the debut of its BEV SUV...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto (LI US): Record Sales Volume in Sep and Record Operating Profit in 3Q24

LI’s revenue increased by 24% YoY in 3Q24, as deliveries climbed out of the trough. LI achieved record operating profit and a record margin in 3Q24.

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:MNSO US/1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/ATAT US/Macro Update

​Yonghui Supermarket's revenue falls short by 15%, Huawei Harmony gains 11,000 new orders, BYD and Xiaomi lead in electric vehicles.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Not All EV Makers Are Reaping the Rewards of Macro Stimulus

NIO and XPEV intensified promotions during C3Q24 while LI moderated them. But we see LI possibly ramping up its promotion to stir up demand in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Geely Auto poised to outperform peers with focus on new EV brands, exports, making it a top play in context of our bullish view on Chinese OEMs'...

LI Auto reported solid financial results for the third quarter, but its share price is expected to remain stagnant until the debut of its BEV SUV...

Yonghui Supermarket's revenue falls short by 15%, Huawei Harmony gains 11,000 new orders, BYD and Xiaomi lead in electric vehicles.