Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Macro: Central Government Focuses on Improving People's Livelihoods to Stimulate Consumption, But Short-term Impact Unlikely(+)</li>
<li>Macro: Our Take on the Chinese Government Housing Provident Fund 2024 Annual Report(/)</li>
<li>1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK: 2025 June 2 – June 8 NEV Delivery Rankings(/)</li>
</ul>


Macro: Central Government Focuses on Improving People's Livelihoods to Stimulate Consumption, But Short-term Impact Unlikely(+)
Macro: Our Take on the Chinese Government Housing Provident Fund 2024 Annual Report(/)
1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK: 2025 June 2 – June 8 NEV Delivery Rankings(/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/CHA US/2589 HK/2555 HK/Macro

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LI Auto (LI) reported C3Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income 2.0%, 68% and in line vs. our estimates. </li>
<li>We expect LI’s share price to be range bound until its BEV SUV to debut in C2Q25. Facing a crowded market</li>
<li>We raise TP from US$22 to 25 but keep rating at SELL.</li>
</ul>


LI Auto (LI) reported C3Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income 2.0%, 68% and in line vs. our estimates. 
We expect LI’s share price to be range bound until its BEV SUV to debut in C2Q25. Facing a crowded market
We raise TP from US$22 to 25 but keep rating at SELL.


[Li Auto (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) TP Change]: Excellence Under Pressure but Challenge Still Loom Big

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>LI’s revenue increased by 24% YoY in 3Q24, as deliveries climbed out of the trough.</li>
<li>LI achieved record operating profit and a record margin in 3Q24.</li>
<li>We believe the plunge after the result release just provides an upside of for the stock.</li>
</ul>


LI’s revenue increased by 24% YoY in 3Q24, as deliveries climbed out of the trough.
LI achieved record operating profit and a record margin in 3Q24.
We believe the plunge after the result release just provides an upside of for the stock.


Li Auto (LI US): Record Sales Volume in Sep and Record Operating Profit in 3Q24

<ul>
<li>Monthly deliveries recovered to the 2023 level in the three months - June, July, and August 2024.</li>
<li>Li Auto’s deliveries growth outperformed the China NEV market size in July.</li>
<li>We set the price target at US$26.90, which is 38% above the market price.</li>
</ul>


Monthly deliveries recovered to the 2023 level in the three months - June, July, and August 2024.
Li Auto’s deliveries growth outperformed the China NEV market size in July.
We set the price target at US$26.90, which is 38% above the market price.


Li Auto (LI US): 2Q24, Look at Monthly Deliveries, But Not Quarterly Revenue

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

<ul>
<li>2Q-2024 results is within ours and consensus expectations. Competition is tough, but LiAuto managed to remain profitable   </li>
<li>Management is boosting R&amp;D expenditure and boost spending on  expanding number of charging stations, all for the benefit of its customers. </li>
<li>Our fair value of USD25 implies 16x FY25 PE - average for auto growth stock. A bargain with 3-year CAGR of 38%, net cash, and churns high free cash flow.</li>
</ul>


2Q-2024 results is within ours and consensus expectations. Competition is tough, but LiAuto managed to remain profitable   
Management is boosting R&amp;D expenditure and boost spending on  expanding number of charging stations, all for the benefit of its customers. 
Our fair value of USD25 implies 16x FY25 PE - average for auto growth stock. A bargain with 3-year CAGR of 38%, net cash, and churns high free cash flow.


LiAuto (LI US, BUY, TP:USD25.0): Good 2Q-2024 Results, on Track to Match Consensus

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/CHA US/2589 HK/2555 HK/Macro

Central government focuses on improving livelihoods to boost consumption, but short-term impact unlikely. Our analysis of Chinese government...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Li Auto (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) TP Change]: Excellence Under Pressure but Challenge Still Loom Big

LI Auto reported solid financial results for the third quarter, but its share price is expected to remain stagnant until the debut of its BEV SUV...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto (LI US): Record Sales Volume in Sep and Record Operating Profit in 3Q24

LI’s revenue increased by 24% YoY in 3Q24, as deliveries climbed out of the trough. LI achieved record operating profit and a record margin in 3Q24.

Ming Lu

Li Auto (LI US): 2Q24, Look at Monthly Deliveries, But Not Quarterly Revenue

Monthly deliveries recovered to the 2023 level in the three months - June, July, and August 2024. Li Auto’s deliveries growth outperformed the...

Ming Lu

LiAuto (LI US, BUY, TP:USD25.0): Good 2Q-2024 Results, on Track to Match Consensus

LiAuto's 2Q-2024 results meet expectations. Management is focused on customer experience and on technology, and this will ensure it survives and...

Mohshin Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/CHA US/2589 HK/2555 HK/Macro

​Central government focuses on improving livelihoods to boost consumption, but short-term impact unlikely. Our analysis of Chinese government...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Li Auto (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) TP Change]: Excellence Under Pressure but Challenge Still Loom Big

​LI Auto reported solid financial results for the third quarter, but its share price is expected to remain stagnant until the debut of its BEV SUV...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto (LI US): Record Sales Volume in Sep and Record Operating Profit in 3Q24

LI’s revenue increased by 24% YoY in 3Q24, as deliveries climbed out of the trough. LI achieved record operating profit and a record margin in 3Q24.

Ming Lu

Li Auto (LI US): 2Q24, Look at Monthly Deliveries, But Not Quarterly Revenue

Monthly deliveries recovered to the 2023 level in the three months - June, July, and August 2024. Li Auto’s deliveries growth outperformed the...

Ming Lu

LiAuto (LI US, BUY, TP:USD25.0): Good 2Q-2024 Results, on Track to Match Consensus

​LiAuto's 2Q-2024 results meet expectations. Management is focused on customer experience and on technology, and this will ensure it survives and...

Mohshin Aziz

Central government focuses on improving livelihoods to boost consumption, but short-term impact unlikely. Our analysis of Chinese government...

LI Auto reported solid financial results for the third quarter, but its share price is expected to remain stagnant until the debut of its BEV SUV...

LiAuto's 2Q-2024 results meet expectations. Management is focused on customer experience and on technology, and this will ensure it survives and...