External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Even though Li Ning started the year slow, both retail sales growth and retail discounts got much better going into Mar-Apr 2023.</li><li>Hence, we are now even more certain about the turnaround in 2Q23E-2H23E. Maintain BUY. 1Q23 was a slight beat.</li><li>Li Ning’s retail sales grew by MSD YoY in 1Q23, beating CMBI est. of 2%. We believe the major surprises are: 1) robust offline growth since Mar 2023 (accelerated to 25%-30%, vs MSD in Jan-Feb) and 2) turnaround in e-commerce (resumed to +ve since Mar 2023). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Even though Li Ning started the year slow, both retail sales growth and retail discounts got much better going into Mar-Apr 2023.Hence, we are now even more certain about the turnaround in 2Q23E-2H23E. Maintain BUY. 1Q23 was a slight beat.Li Ning’s retail sales grew by MSD YoY in 1Q23, beating CMBI est. of 2%. We believe the major surprises are: 1) robust offline growth since Mar 2023 (accelerated to 25%-30%, vs MSD in Jan-Feb) and 2) turnaround in e-commerce (resumed to +ve since Mar 2023). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Li Ning (2331 HK) – A strong comeback in all channels since Mar

<ul><li>We find YTD retail sales and FY23E guidance a miss (even vs our sell-side leading bearish view).</li><li>However, we believe the share price has already priced in the miss (after the drop on Friday).</li><li>With the turnaround ahead, we still rate it BUY.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We find YTD retail sales and FY23E guidance a miss (even vs our sell-side leading bearish view).However, we believe the share price has already priced in the miss (after the drop on Friday).With the turnaround ahead, we still rate it BUY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Li Ning (2331 HK) – A conservative guidance but is priced in

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Even though we are trimming our FY22E net profit forecasts, we believe the sector has already bottomed out in 1Q23E, supported by: 1) decent YTD retail sales growth, 2) turn around in inventory level and retail discounts.</li><li>While we expect a more conservative FY23E guidance by the brands, we do see decent upside surprises from GP margin improvements, helped by better retail discounts and cheaper input costs, etc.</li><li>Therefore, for brands with a higher DTC mix, we believe brands like Anta (2020 HK) and Topsports (6110 HK) are going to outperform.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Even though we are trimming our FY22E net profit forecasts, we believe the sector has already bottomed out in 1Q23E, supported by: 1) decent YTD retail sales growth, 2) turn around in inventory level and retail discounts.While we expect a more conservative FY23E guidance by the brands, we do see decent upside surprises from GP margin improvements, helped by better retail discounts and cheaper input costs, etc.Therefore, for brands with a higher DTC mix, we believe brands like Anta (2020 HK) and Topsports (6110 HK) are going to outperform.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Sportswear Sector – We expect prudent guidance but decent margins

<ul><li>Resilient online sales growth during double 11, where Tik Tok, PDD and JD platforms continued to outperform.</li><li>Based on our channel check and CMBI est., the online GMV growth during 2022’s double 11 was at ~14% YoY, inline with CMBI est. and beat market expectation, similar to online sales growth in Sep 2022 and had picked up vs Oct 2022.</li><li>In terms of platforms, YoY growth for Alibaba (Tmall + Tao Bao)/ JD/ PDD/ TikTok increased by ~flattish/ ~teens/ 27%/ 38%.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Resilient online sales growth during double 11, where Tik Tok, PDD and JD platforms continued to outperform.Based on our channel check and CMBI est., the online GMV growth during 2022’s double 11 was at ~14% YoY, inline with CMBI est. and beat market expectation, similar to online sales growth in Sep 2022 and had picked up vs Oct 2022.In terms of platforms, YoY growth for Alibaba (Tmall + Tao Bao)/ JD/ PDD/ TikTok increased by ~flattish/ ~teens/ 27%/ 38%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Sportswear Sector – Sequential improvements during double 11

<div><div><div><ul><li>3Q22 results were roughly inline with the already low market expectation.</li><li>While management is still confident about 4Q22 and keeps the FY22E guidance, we are relatively more conservative due to industry-level competition.</li><li>We reiterate BUY but cut our TP to HK$73.08, based on a 29x FY23E P/E (vs 32x due to <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">sector de-rating). Its current valuation of 21x FY23E P/E is not too demanding.</span></li></ul></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

3Q22 results were roughly inline with the already low market expectation.While management is still confident about 4Q22 and keeps the FY22E guidance, we are relatively more conservative due to industry-level competition.We reiterate BUY but cut our TP to HK$73.08, based on a 29x FY23E P/E (vs 32x due to sector de-rating). Its current valuation of 21x FY23E P/E is not too demanding.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Li Ning (2331 HK) – Guidance maintained but we are conservative

China

Li Ning Company Limited researches, designs, manufactures, distributes, and retails sports footwear, apparel and accessories for sport and leisure use.

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Li Ning (2331 HK)

Li Ning (2331 HK) – A strong comeback in all channels since Mar

Even though Li Ning started the year slow, both retail sales growth and retail discounts got much better going into Mar-Apr 2023.

CMB International

Li Ning (2331 HK) – A conservative guidance but is priced in

We find YTD retail sales and FY23E guidance a miss (even vs our sell-side leading bearish view). However, we believe the share price has already...

CMB International

China Sportswear Sector – We expect prudent guidance but decent margins

While we expect a more conservative FY23E guidance by the brands, we do see decent upside surprises from GP margin improvements, helped by better...

CMB International

China Sportswear Sector – Sequential improvements during double 11

Based on our channel check and CMBI est., the online GMV growth during 2022’s double 11 was at ~14% YoY, inline with CMBI est. and beat market...

CMB International

Li Ning (2331 HK) – Guidance maintained but we are conservative

We reiterate BUY but cut our TP to HK$73.08, based on a 29x FY23E P/E (vs 32x due to sector de-rating). Its current valuation of 21x FY23E P/E is...

CMB International

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