Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

We have had a bullish stance for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a> for over two years now, where channel interactions led us to believe that growth may beat consensus highlighted in our insights <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/titan-co-ltd-ttan-in-channel-checks-suggest-revenue-growth-might-beat-consensus" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26200" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) | Channel Checks Suggest Revenue Growth Might Beat Consensus</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/titan-ttan-in-jewellery-margins-surprise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36351" rel="noopener">Titan (TTAN IN) | Jewellery Margins Surprise</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-jewellery-retailers-titan-vs-chow-tai-fook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40289" rel="noopener">Asian Jewellery Retailers | Titan Vs Chow Tai Fook</a> which was done during the pandemic.
Till now,  we expected TTAN to emerge stronger - with a higher market share as the most trusted and the safest player in the market. 
However, Q3 performance indicates that the "Strong might not be getting Stronger", with the COVID tailwinds of trust and safety fading and consensus still upgrading revenues, we believe that a potential disappointment lies ahead.

We have had a bullish stance for Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) for over two years now, where channel interactions led us to believe that growth may beat consensus highlighted in our insights Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) | Channel Checks Suggest Revenue Growth Might Beat Consensus , Titan (TTAN IN) | Jewellery Margins Surprise and Asian Jewellery Retailers | Titan Vs Chow Tai Fook which was done during the pandemic.
Till now,  we expected TTAN to emerge stronger - with a higher market share as the most trusted and the safest player in the market. 
However, Q3 performance indicates that the "Strong might not be getting Stronger", with the COVID tailwinds of trust and safety fading and consensus still upgrading revenues, we believe that a potential disappointment lies ahead. 

Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) | Fading Tailwinds, Potential Disappointment Lies Ahead

Across time horizons short positions or an underweight holding of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> has continued to pay off. BRIT's core issues have been highlighted in our earlier insights <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-biscuit-economy-key-takeaways-from-britannia-parle-distributor-interactions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31997" rel="noopener">The Biscuit Economy - Key Takeaways from Britannia &amp; Parle Distributor Interactions</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/britannia-brit-in-risk-of-underperformance-looms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:32662" rel="noopener">Britannia (BRIT IN) | Risk of Underperformance Looms</a>.
Our recent channel interactions with distributors suggest that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> continues to remain a story of EPS rather than one of revenue.  As structural pain points in the industry continue to persist, revenue growth is likely to remain challenging in the near future. A short/underweight position on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) </a>is expected to continue paying off.

Across time horizons short positions or an underweight holding of Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) has continued to pay off. BRIT's core issues have been highlighted in our earlier insights The Biscuit Economy - Key Takeaways from Britannia &amp; Parle Distributor Interactions and Britannia (BRIT IN) | Risk of Underperformance Looms.
Our recent channel interactions with distributors suggest that Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) continues to remain a story of EPS rather than one of revenue.  As structural pain points in the industry continue to persist, revenue growth is likely to remain challenging in the near future. A short/underweight position on Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) is expected to continue paying off.

Britannia (BRIT IN) | Short / Underweight Position Is Likely to Continue Paying Off

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Reversing Course Again: On April 3, 2020, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) - the European Union’s financial regulatory body which replaced the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) – in the context of the corona virus, released a statement urging insurers to “temporarily suspend all discretionary dividend distributions and share buybacks aimed at remunerating shareholders” in order to preserve capital. In an odd reversal of course, EIOPA has updated its commentary surrounding European insurance capital management; and  *Asia-Pacific Insurers Still At Risk: Asia-Pacific insurance counterparts previously acted in capital solidarity with their Western peer during COVID-19. Many Asia-Pacific insurers purchased USD-denominated assets in their desperate search for yield in this low/negative rate environment where the impact of credit default and ratings agency downgrades on their investment portfolios is likely to continue to be outsized and challenge capital their ratios. We are hopeful that the Asia-Pacific insurers - particularly in Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea – don’t behave as desperately as their European counterparts have.

*Reversing Course Again: On April 3, 2020, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) - the European Union’s financial regulatory body which replaced the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) – in the context of the corona virus, released a statement urging insurers to “temporarily suspend all discretionary dividend distributions and share buybacks aimed at remunerating shareholders” in order to preserve capital. In an odd reversal of course, EIOPA has updated its commentary surrounding European insurance capital management; and  *Asia-Pacific Insurers Still At Risk: Asia-Pacific insurance counterparts previously acted in capital solidarity with their Western peer during COVID-19. Many Asia-Pacific insurers purchased USD-denominated assets in their desperate search for yield in this low/negative rate environment where the impact of credit default and ratings agency downgrades on their investment portfolios is likely to continue to be outsized and challenge capital their ratios. We are hopeful that the Asia-Pacific insurers - particularly in Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea – don’t behave as desperately as their European counterparts have. 

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Life Insurance  of India / Equity Capital Markets

Its been a quiet year for listings for most of Asia-Pacific with only Hong Kong being a more recent exception. To say that its been a quite year for India, would be an understatement, India has seen only one IPO so far this year.Instead, it has been seeing a lot of secondary selldowns and rights issues. In this insight, I'll talk about the year to date and provide a upcoming deal pipeline.

Its been a quiet year for listings for most of Asia-Pacific with only Hong Kong being a more recent exception. To say that its been a quite year for India, would be an understatement, India has seen only one IPO so far this year.Instead, it has been seeing a lot of secondary selldowns and rights issues. In this insight, I'll talk about the year to date and provide a upcoming deal pipeline. 

India ECM 2020 Mid-Year Review - A Year of Secondary and Rights Issues

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Government of India has been divesting its stake in Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSE) and other public companies held by the Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India (SUUTI) through the ETF route via the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1">R* Shares CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-22-etf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28307:1">BHARAT 22 ETF (ICICIB22 IN)</a> ETFs.Since launch, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1">R* Shares CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a> ETF has raised INR 665bn while the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-22-etf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28307:1">BHARAT 22 ETF (ICICIB22 IN)</a> ETF has raised INR 416bn. The AUM for the two ETFs as of the end of January 2020 is INR 90.75bn and INR 67.53bn respectively.With the Government looking to raise funds from divestments to bridge the fiscal deficit, we look at the relevance of the ETFs in meeting this objective and identify stocks that would need to be excluded from the indices for the Government to continue with further fund offerings.

The Government of India has been divesting its stake in Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSE) and other public companies held by the Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India (SUUTI) through the ETF route via the R* Shares CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and BHARAT 22 ETF (ICICIB22 IN) ETFs.Since launch, the R* Shares CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) ETF has raised INR 665bn while the BHARAT 22 ETF (ICICIB22 IN) ETF has raised INR 416bn. The AUM for the two ETFs as of the end of January 2020 is INR 90.75bn and INR 67.53bn respectively.With the Government looking to raise funds from divestments to bridge the fiscal deficit, we look at the relevance of the ETFs in meeting this objective and identify stocks that would need to be excluded from the indices for the Government to continue with further fund offerings.

India - The Future of CPSE and BHARAT22 ETFs & Potential Rebalance Candidates

India

Life Insurance Corporation of India operates as an insurance company. The Company provides life, pension, health, and micro insurance products and services. Life Insurance serves customers in India.

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Life Insurance of India (LICI IN)

Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) | Fading Tailwinds, Potential Disappointment Lies Ahead

"Strong might not be getting Stronger", COVID tailwinds of trust and safety are fading, with consensus still upgrading revenues, we see a potential...

Pranav Bhavsar

Britannia (BRIT IN) | Short / Underweight Position Is Likely to Continue Paying Off

Our recent channel interactions with distributors suggest that Britannia remains a story of EPS rather than one of revenue. The short/underweight...

Pranav Bhavsar

Asian Insurers – Mea, Mea EIOPA

ASIA INSURERS: On April 3, 2020, EIOPA temporarily suspended capital management activities," but just reversed course. Many Asia-Pacific insurers...

Thomas J. Monaco

India ECM 2020 Mid-Year Review - A Year of Secondary and Rights Issues

Its been a quiet year for listings for most of Asia-Pacific with only Hong Kong being a more recent exception. To say that its been a quite year...

Sumeet Singh

India - The Future of CPSE and BHARAT22 ETFs & Potential Rebalance Candidates

The Government of India has been divesting its stake in Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSE) and other public companies held by the Specified...

Brian Freitas

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