IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-tianqi-lithium-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5698:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH)</a> priced its H Share at HK$82.00 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$13,062 million (US$1.7 billion). The H Share will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>The H Share listing (HK$82.00) and <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/3300412/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%91%E5%9B%9B%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E9%BD%8A%E8%B7%8C%E3%80%80%E5%A4%A9%E9%BD%8A%E9%8B%B0%E6%A5%AD9696%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E6%9A%AB%E8%9D%951100%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">grey market price</a> (HK$76.50) imply an AH discount of 45% and 49%, respectively. This compares to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26795:1" rel="noopener">Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)</a>’s current 35.3% AH discount.</li>
<li>The relative valuation is attractive. At the H Share listing price, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a>’s H Share trades at a -6% discount to the median peers’ CY2022 P/B multiple.</li>
</ul>



Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH) priced its H Share at HK$82.00 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$13,062 million (US$1.7 billion). The H Share will start trading tomorrow.
The H Share listing (HK$82.00) and grey market price (HK$76.50) imply an AH discount of 45% and 49%, respectively. This compares to Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)’s current 35.3% AH discount.
The relative valuation is attractive. At the H Share listing price, Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)’s H Share trades at a -6% discount to the median peers’ CY2022 P/B multiple.


Tianqi Lithium H Share Listing: Trading Debut

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a> has launched its H Share listing at an indicative price range of HK$69.00-82.00 per share. Pricing is on 6 July and listing on 13 July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-tianqi-lithium-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5698:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH)</a>'s AH discount range of 52.9%-44.0% is reasonable in the context of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26795:1" rel="noopener">Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)</a>’s average AH discount is 38.5% since its H Share listing.</li>
<li>Our relative valuation analysis suggests that Tianqi's H Share valuation is attractive in comparison to median peers' multiples. </li>
</ul>



Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) has launched its H Share listing at an indicative price range of HK$69.00-82.00 per share. Pricing is on 6 July and listing on 13 July.

Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH)'s AH discount range of 52.9%-44.0% is reasonable in the context of Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)’s average AH discount is 38.5% since its H Share listing.
Our relative valuation analysis suggests that Tianqi's H Share valuation is attractive in comparison to median peers' multiples. 


Tianqi Lithium H Share Listing: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-tianqi-lithium-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5698:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc (002466 CH)</a> has upped its targeted H Share raise from US$1.0-1.5 billion to US$1.5–2.0 billion. The listing will kick off on Thursday.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tianqi-lithium-h-share-listing-riding-the-wave" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:71921" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium H Share Listing: Riding the Wave</a>, we noted that Tianqi is well-placed to leverage the high lithium prices to deliver growth, margin and cash generation.</li>
<li>In this note, we examine the likely discount that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-tianqi-lithium-industries-inc-f26986a6-bedd-49d2-a5bd-b3dabf59ae32" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc. (TIANQI HK)</a> will offer its H Shares in comparison to the A Shares.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc (002466 CH) has upped its targeted H Share raise from US$1.0-1.5 billion to US$1.5–2.0 billion. The listing will kick off on Thursday.
In Tianqi Lithium H Share Listing: Riding the Wave, we noted that Tianqi is well-placed to leverage the high lithium prices to deliver growth, margin and cash generation.
In this note, we examine the likely discount that Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc. (TIANQI HK) will offer its H Shares in comparison to the A Shares.


Tianqi Lithium H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, giving us a high degree of confidence that price and RS appreciation is likely to continue.</li>
<li>Looking at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX-US), it remains topside an 8-year base and displays a bullish inflection after consolidating for 8.5 months.</li>
<li>Buying: MP Materials (MP-US), Lithium Americas (LAC-US, LAC-CA), Livent (LTHM-US), AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group (AMG-NL), Pilbara Minerals (PLS-AU), Liontown Resources (LTR-AU), AVZ Minerals (AVZ-AU), and Standard Lithium (SLI-CA)</li>
</ul>


Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, giving us a high degree of confidence that price and RS appreciation is likely to continue.
Looking at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX-US), it remains topside an 8-year base and displays a bullish inflection after consolidating for 8.5 months.
Buying: MP Materials (MP-US), Lithium Americas (LAC-US, LAC-CA), Livent (LTHM-US), AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group (AMG-NL), Pilbara Minerals (PLS-AU), Liontown Resources (LTR-AU), AVZ Minerals (AVZ-AU), and Standard Lithium (SLI-CA)


Buying Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Stocks: MP, LAC, LTHM, AMG-NL, PLS-AU, LTR-AU, AVZ-AU, SLI-CA

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

United States

Livent Corporation produces and distributes lithium chemicals. The Company offers lithium chemicals for applications in batteries, agrochemicals, aerospace alloys, greases, pharmaceuticals, polymers, and various industrial applications.

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Livent (LTHM US)

Buying Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Stocks: MP, LAC, LTHM, AMG-NL, PLS-AU, LTR-AU, AVZ-AU, SLI-CA

Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, and we expect price and RS appreciation to continue. This also provides us...

Vermilion Research

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

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Tianqi Lithium H Share Listing: Trading Debut

The H Share opened at 6.7% lower in the Futu grey market. The AH discount and relative valuation suggest that the H Share listing price remains...

Arun George

Tianqi Lithium H Share Listing: Valuation Insights

Tianqi's AH discount range is reasonable. The H Share valuation is attractive in comparison to median peers' multiples. Participate in the H Share...

Arun George

Tianqi Lithium H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

Tianqi aims to launch a US$1.5-2bn H Share listing on Thursday. In this note, we examine the likely discount that Tianqi will offer its H Shares in...

Arun George

Buying Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Stocks: MP, LAC, LTHM, AMG-NL, PLS-AU, LTR-AU, AVZ-AU, SLI-CA

Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, and we expect price and RS appreciation to continue. This also provides us...

Vermilion Research

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research