Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Last month our text-mined indicators pointed to a year-end surge in raw materials restocking coupled with an extraordinary spike in general reporting on price increases globally</li>
<li>With a seasonal slowdown ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday and mobility restrictions, the restocking has faded; buildups in iron ore, steel and zinc inventories confirm a pause in momentum</li>
<li>Despite crowded positioning, copper maintained low beta to mining equities with a single-digit correction vs. the equities correcting closer to -10%; so far both remain near 50DMAs</li>
<li>Our text-mined copper sentiment indicator peaked at a multi-year high of +4.2x STDEVs on January 2, pulling back in recent weeks closer to neutral readings; however sharp, attribution finds the pullback is still primarily associated with pre-LNY seasonal slowdown and the relatively firm USD (as conviction levels on structural copper tightness remain high amid lean inventories)</li>
<li>Lithium sentiment stands out in the YTD, improving to +2x STDEVs on the lithium carbonate spot recovery and improving EV data points</li>
<li>Iron ore and steel diffusion indices have been dropping sharply in the YTD on falling utilization, building inventories and compressing mill margins, finally down to outright negative territory on first signs of vol in iron ore this week</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tool text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Last month our text-mined indicators pointed to a year-end surge in raw materials restocking coupled with an extraordinary spike in general reporting on price increases globally
With a seasonal slowdown ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday and mobility restrictions, the restocking has faded; buildups in iron ore, steel and zinc inventories confirm a pause in momentum
Despite crowded positioning, copper maintained low beta to mining equities with a single-digit correction vs. the equities correcting closer to -10%; so far both remain near 50DMAs
Our text-mined copper sentiment indicator peaked at a multi-year high of +4.2x STDEVs on January 2, pulling back in recent weeks closer to neutral readings; however sharp, attribution finds the pullback is still primarily associated with pre-LNY seasonal slowdown and the relatively firm USD (as conviction levels on structural copper tightness remain high amid lean inventories)
Lithium sentiment stands out in the YTD, improving to +2x STDEVs on the lithium carbonate spot recovery and improving EV data points
Iron ore and steel diffusion indices have been dropping sharply in the YTD on falling utilization, building inventories and compressing mill margins, finally down to outright negative territory on first signs of vol in iron ore this week
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tool text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Metals Points - Restocking Pauses, Copper Sentiment Pulls Back from Extremes

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27434" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1">Livent (LTHM US)</a> ("Livent Corp") is a profitable company that produces lithium.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11135" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11135:1">Fmc Corp (FMC US)</a> will be spinning off its lithium business (Livent) through this IPO in the US. Livent is planning to raise about US$100 million in an IPO to be completed in the next few weeks. </li>
<li>Despite some negative sentiment on the lithium-related stocks in recent months, there will likely be a solid interest in the Livent IPO mainly due to three major factors: 1) It is one of the few large scale, global lithium producing companies with positive EBITDA and earnings. 2) Livent is a pure-play, global, leading company in the lithium production. 3) Most of its major competitors are also non-North American based companies and investors typically place some discount on these Chinese/non-North American based companies partly due to corporate governance risks.</li>
<li>Livent Corp's main products include lithium hydroxide, butyllithium, and high purity lithium metal. Its lithium related products are used in a wide variety of applications including in the electric vehicle (EV) lithium-ion batteries. 
</li>
<li>
Production capacity ramp-up - The company had an annual production capacity of 18.5 kMT of lithium hydroxide at the end of 2017 and it plans to increase this production capacity to 55 kMT at end of 2025, representing a CAGR of 14.6% during this period. By end of 2019, the company plans to increase its production of annual lithium hydroxide to 30 kMT. </li>
<li>
Competition - It is estimated that the global supply of lithium compounds was 270 kMT in 2017. Six producers including Livent, Albemarle Corp, Sociedad Quimica y Minera, Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd., and Orocobre Limited represented 86% of total lithium compounds supply in 2017. </li>
<li>
Strong sales and profit growth - The company's sales increased 32% YoY to US$347.4 million in 2017 and its sales increased even faster at 51% YoY to US$210.7 million in 1H18. Capitalizing on the company's economies of scale, its operating margin improved from 22.3% in 2016 to 29.2% in 2017. Its operating margin increased even further from 24.9% in 1H17 to 39.7% in 1H18.  </li>
<li>
Reduced valuation expectations - Back in February 2018, the company was planning to sell of around 15% of its lithium business trying to raise about US$500 million, which would put a value of more than US$3.0 billion. However, a lot has changed in the past six months and investors are likely to place much lower valuations for Livent Corp in the coming weeks. </li>
</ul>



Livent (LTHM US) ("Livent Corp") is a profitable company that produces lithium.  Fmc Corp (FMC US) will be spinning off its lithium business (Livent) through this IPO in the US. Livent is planning to raise about US$100 million in an IPO to be completed in the next few weeks. 
Despite some negative sentiment on the lithium-related stocks in recent months, there will likely be a solid interest in the Livent IPO mainly due to three major factors: 1) It is one of the few large scale, global lithium producing companies with positive EBITDA and earnings. 2) Livent is a pure-play, global, leading company in the lithium production. 3) Most of its major competitors are also non-North American based companies and investors typically place some discount on these Chinese/non-North American based companies partly due to corporate governance risks.
Livent Corp's main products include lithium hydroxide, butyllithium, and high purity lithium metal. Its lithium related products are used in a wide variety of applications including in the electric vehicle (EV) lithium-ion batteries. 


Production capacity ramp-up - The company had an annual production capacity of 18.5 kMT of lithium hydroxide at the end of 2017 and it plans to increase this production capacity to 55 kMT at end of 2025, representing a CAGR of 14.6% during this period. By end of 2019, the company plans to increase its production of annual lithium hydroxide to 30 kMT. 

Competition - It is estimated that the global supply of lithium compounds was 270 kMT in 2017. Six producers including Livent, Albemarle Corp, Sociedad Quimica y Minera, Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd., and Orocobre Limited represented 86% of total lithium compounds supply in 2017. 

Strong sales and profit growth - The company's sales increased 32% YoY to US$347.4 million in 2017 and its sales increased even faster at 51% YoY to US$210.7 million in 1H18. Capitalizing on the company's economies of scale, its operating margin improved from 22.3% in 2016 to 29.2% in 2017. Its operating margin increased even further from 24.9% in 1H17 to 39.7% in 1H18.  

Reduced valuation expectations - Back in February 2018, the company was planning to sell of around 15% of its lithium business trying to raise about US$500 million, which would put a value of more than US$3.0 billion. However, a lot has changed in the past six months and investors are likely to place much lower valuations for Livent Corp in the coming weeks. 


Livent IPO Preview (Part 1): A Profitable Company that Produces Lithium

United States

Livent Corporation produces and distributes lithium chemicals. The Company offers lithium chemicals for applications in batteries, agrochemicals, aerospace alloys, greases, pharmaceuticals, polymers, and various industrial applications.

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Livent (LTHM US)

TMI Snapshot: Metals Points - Restocking Pauses, Copper Sentiment Pulls Back from Extremes

The year-end restocking trade has faded into the Lunar New Year, dragging on the reflation trade. Lithium sentiment is the only standout this...

Elan Gore

Livent IPO Preview (Part 1): A Profitable Company that Produces Lithium

Livent (LTHM US) ("Livent Corp") is a profitable company that produces lithium. Fmc Corp (FMC US) will be spinning off its lithium business...

Douglas Kim

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