Research from Superfluous Value, Superfluous Value

Superfluous Value

Research from Superfluous Value

Stock selection has rarely been as important as it is today. After a roaring decade for US markets and with signs of mania everywhere, the S&P 500 as over-priced as it has ever been.

But, there is better way. Superfluous Value is a contrarian, deep-dive into the markets forgotten by the 60/40 instos and indexing, momentum chasers. Where the hot money has long moved on, it leaves behind investments offering great safety and prospective returns.

I believe the 2020s will look diametrically opposite to the recent past, with Emerging Markets, the UK, Japan and commodities set to rip and I intend to be holding the best opportunities available as they do.

Please feel free to come along on the journey.

Contrarian Deep-Dive into the Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The UK remains one of my favourite hunting grounds and I’ve written about its challenges ad nauseam over the last few years.</li><li>But today, it’s particularly worth pointing out that an unusually large number of UK stocks are down significantly over the last month.</li><li>Many are for business specific reasons, but it’s almost uncanny the way UK stocks find a way to tank, even when much of the world is rallying.</li></ul>

The UK remains one of my favourite hunting grounds and I’ve written about its challenges ad nauseam over the last few years.But today, it’s particularly worth pointing out that an unusually large number of UK stocks are down significantly over the last month.Many are for business specific reasons, but it’s almost uncanny the way UK stocks find a way to tank, even when much of the world is rallying.

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The bank runs in the global banking system will continue to pose downside risk to global banking stocks, including Thai banks, until the Fed and the ECB can come up with systematic solutions, and a worsening of the situation would lead to huge unrealized losses from investment in government bonds.</li><li>A temporary full-deposit guarantee is another potential way to address the banking crisis; note that the US guarantees around USD10trn out of total deposits of USD18trn, and the FDIC incurs costs of just USD100bn.</li><li>The longer the banking crisis is drawn-out, the greater the risks related to a credit crunch and the higher the chance of a global economic recession.</li></ul>

The bank runs in the global banking system will continue to pose downside risk to global banking stocks, including Thai banks, until the Fed and the ECB can come up with systematic solutions, and a worsening of the situation would lead to huge unrealized losses from investment in government bonds.A temporary full-deposit guarantee is another potential way to address the banking crisis; note that the US guarantees around USD10trn out of total deposits of USD18trn, and the FDIC incurs costs of just USD100bn.The longer the banking crisis is drawn-out, the greater the risks related to a credit crunch and the higher the chance of a global economic recession.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>It was the sort of year that may only come once in a career.</li><li>Almost everything worked as the markets finally looked beyond US tech to Asian holdcos, commodities and EM value.</li><li>The level of outperformance was particularly surprising given the AI bubble and crypto/meme silliness rage on and that I began the year with 24% cash.</li></ul>

It was the sort of year that may only come once in a career.Almost everything worked as the markets finally looked beyond US tech to Asian holdcos, commodities and EM value.The level of outperformance was particularly surprising given the AI bubble and crypto/meme silliness rage on and that I began the year with 24% cash.

United Kingdom

Lloyds Banking Group is a leading UK-based financial services group primarily focused on retail and commercial customers. It offers a wide range of banking and financial services, including current accounts, savings, mortgages, credit cards, personal loans, and insurance, pensions, and investments. The group operates mainly in the UK through various brands such as Lloyds Bank, Bank of Scotland, and Scottish Widows. The company's operational headquarters are in London, England, and its registered office is in Edinburgh, Scotland, with the broader Group's heritage dating back to 1695 through the Bank of Scotland, while Lloyds Bank was founded in 1765.

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Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY LN)

Noteworthy UK Carnage

The UK remains one of my favourite hunting grounds and I’ve written about its challenges ad nauseam over the last few years.

Superfluous Value

Special Report: Bank Runs

The longer the banking crisis is drawn-out, the greater the risks related to a credit crunch and the higher the chance of a global economic recession.

Krungthai XSpring

2025 Portfolio Review

The level of outperformance was particularly surprising given the AI bubble and crypto/meme silliness rage on and that I began the year with 24% cash.

Superfluous Value

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