Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022.</li>
<li>Average weights are at their highest levels in 10 years. Despite this recovery, Real Estate remains a "non-essential" sector, with 23% of funds avoiding exposure entirely.</li>
<li>Country-Level trends highlight a rotation from China into the U.A.E, driven by record-high fund ownership in names like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emaar-properties-pjsc-004c637d-b17a-4c9b-849b-0c89d3b1f6b4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25955:1" rel="noopener">Emaar Properties Pjsc (EMAAR UH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aldar-properties-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27654:1" rel="noopener">Aldar Properties PJSC (ALDAR UH)</a>
</li>
</ul>


Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022.
Average weights are at their highest levels in 10 years. Despite this recovery, Real Estate remains a "non-essential" sector, with 23% of funds avoiding exposure entirely.
Country-Level trends highlight a rotation from China into the U.A.E, driven by record-high fund ownership in names like Emaar Properties Pjsc (EMAAR UH) and Aldar Properties PJSC (ALDAR UH)



Real Estate:  Recovery Among Active GEM Funds

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Uptick in Real Estate positioning driven by a shift towards Indian Real Estate stocks, which has outweighed reductions in exposure to China &amp; HK Real Estate</li>
<li>Three names stand out: Phoenix Mills, Macrotech Developers, and DLF Limited, all of which have seen ownership rise to record levels.</li>
<li>New positions in Indian Real Estate by Allianz and JKC have been offset by closures in Chinese Real Estate by LO Funds and SEB, among others.</li>
</ul>


Uptick in Real Estate positioning driven by a shift towards Indian Real Estate stocks, which has outweighed reductions in exposure to China &amp; HK Real Estate
Three names stand out: Phoenix Mills, Macrotech Developers, and DLF Limited, all of which have seen ownership rise to record levels.
New positions in Indian Real Estate by Allianz and JKC have been offset by closures in Chinese Real Estate by LO Funds and SEB, among others.


Real Estate:  India/China Rotation Sparks Sector Growth

<ul>
<li>The average Indian allocation among active GEM funds broke through the 15% barrier at the start of 2024, despite an increasing underweight versus the benchmark index.</li>
<li>Valuation-Driven Underweight: The average weight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF hit record underweights of -2.44%, with only 27.6% of funds positioned overweight. EM Value funds hit record -8.7% underweight.</li>
<li>HDFC Bank is the most widely held stock, owned by 60.5% of funds, while a majority of Indian names, such as Reliance Industries, are underweighted by active GEM funds.</li>
</ul>


The average Indian allocation among active GEM funds broke through the 15% barrier at the start of 2024, despite an increasing underweight versus the benchmark index.
Valuation-Driven Underweight: The average weight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF hit record underweights of -2.44%, with only 27.6% of funds positioned overweight. EM Value funds hit record -8.7% underweight.
HDFC Bank is the most widely held stock, owned by 60.5% of funds, while a majority of Indian names, such as Reliance Industries, are underweighted by active GEM funds.


India:  Record Exposure Gives Rise to Caution

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

India

Lodha Developers is an Indian multinational real estate company primarily focused on developing residential, commercial, and retail properties. The company also engages in the leasing of retail and office spaces, and develops warehousing, logistics, and digital infrastructure parks. Lodha Developers is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded in 1980.

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Lodha Developers (LODHA IN)

Real Estate: Recovery Among Active GEM Funds

Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022, with the U.A.E leading the...

Steven Holden

Real Estate: India/China Rotation Sparks Sector Growth

Real Estate exposure grows among active Asia Ex-Japan funds, sparked by a rotation in to Indian Real Estate, as China & HK positioning falls.

Steven Holden

India: Record Exposure Gives Rise to Caution

Despite record MSCI India highs, valuations keep India as a significant underweight for active EM managers. Underweights client to -2.44% versus...

Steven Holden

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

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