Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The carnage in China and some Hong Kong real estate and property management companies and financials went largely unnoticed.</li><li>The five-day decline in Longfor was 18%, Country Garden by 15.50%, Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index fell 6.75%, and HSI Properties Index fell 2.75%.</li><li>It has had zero impact on the rest of the world (ROW) markets.</li></ul>

The carnage in China and some Hong Kong real estate and property management companies and financials went largely unnoticed.The five-day decline in Longfor was 18%, Country Garden by 15.50%, Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index fell 6.75%, and HSI Properties Index fell 2.75%.It has had zero impact on the rest of the world (ROW) markets.

HSI Index: Longfor, Alibaba, Ping An, and Tencent

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Equity Bottom-Up

Central China Real Estate / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>CPPIB is set to sell a China mall to Dajia Insurance for $163M, showcasing a significant real estate deal in Asia.</li><li>GDS announces rebranding of its international unit as DayOne, reflecting a strategic shift within the company.</li><li>Henderson Land plans expansion in Mid-Levels, Hong Kong, while Schroders markets Kowloon Complex floor after canceled auction. Singapore private home prices surge in Q4 with 3-5% growth predicted for 2025.</li></ul>

CPPIB is set to sell a China mall to Dajia Insurance for $163M, showcasing a significant real estate deal in Asia.GDS announces rebranding of its international unit as DayOne, reflecting a strategic shift within the company.Henderson Land plans expansion in Mid-Levels, Hong Kong, while Schroders markets Kowloon Complex floor after canceled auction. Singapore private home prices surge in Q4 with 3-5% growth predicted for 2025.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (06-Jan-2025): Asia Real Estate News 2025-01-06

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Credit

<ul><li>LNGFORs dropped 20pts over the past 3 weeks, due mainly to the collateral damage of the sharp downturn of COGARDs.</li><li>As we discussed in our comments on 15 Aug’23, Longfor is facing a very different situation than what COGARD is.</li><li>We have been arguing that survivors of the sectors will be those 1) with manageable near-term maturities, especially offshore maturities; 2) a matured portfolio of investment properties (IPs) such that the unencumbered value of IPs can be monetized or collateralized to obtain operating loans, CMBS or issue CBICL-guaranteed bonds. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

LNGFORs dropped 20pts over the past 3 weeks, due mainly to the collateral damage of the sharp downturn of COGARDs.As we discussed in our comments on 15 Aug’23, Longfor is facing a very different situation than what COGARD is.We have been arguing that survivors of the sectors will be those 1) with manageable near-term maturities, especially offshore maturities; 2) a matured portfolio of investment properties (IPs) such that the unencumbered value of IPs can be monetized or collateralized to obtain operating loans, CMBS or issue CBICL-guaranteed bonds. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We think Longfor’s strategy shift into safety would continue to leave it lagging behind those SOE peers in 2023E.</li><li>On the DP side, the lack of effective land bank (only 22.5mn sqm excl. Yantai and sold but unbooked GFA) would put sales outlook under pressure especially in 2023E (guided -3% YoY).</li><li>Also management will not expand total debts for land acquisition which limits the sales upside in a recovery market. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We think Longfor’s strategy shift into safety would continue to leave it lagging behind those SOE peers in 2023E.On the DP side, the lack of effective land bank (only 22.5mn sqm excl. Yantai and sold but unbooked GFA) would put sales outlook under pressure especially in 2023E (guided -3% YoY).Also management will not expand total debts for land acquisition which limits the sales upside in a recovery market. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Longfor (960 HK) – Transition leaving growth muted

<div><ul><li>After market close of 28 Oct, Longfor announced major management change.</li><li>Its founder Ms.Wu Yajun resigned from Chairlady position and the current CEO Mr. Chen Xuping is promoted to take over Chairman.</li><li>At the same time, Vice Chairman Mr. Shao will also become non- executive director from previous executive director.</li></ul></div>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

After market close of 28 Oct, Longfor announced major management change.Its founder Ms.Wu Yajun resigned from Chairlady position and the current CEO Mr. Chen Xuping is promoted to take over Chairman.At the same time, Vice Chairman Mr. Shao will also become non- executive director from previous executive director.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Longfor (960 HK) – Wu’s retirement: short-term pain for long-term gain

China

Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. is an investment holding company primarily engaged in property development, investment property operation, and services. It develops and sells residential, office, and commercial properties, and leases shopping malls and rental housing. The company also provides property management, hotel operation, commercial investment, and smart construction services. Longfor Group was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Longfor (960 HK)

HSI Index: Longfor, Alibaba, Ping An, and Tencent

The carnage in China and some Hong Kong real estate and property management companies and financials went largely unnoticed.

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia Real Estate Tracker (06-Jan-2025): Asia Real Estate News 2025-01-06

CPPIB sells China mall to Dajia Insurance, GDS rebrands international unit, Henderson Land expanding in Mid-Levels, Schroders markets Kowloon...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Longfor: How Longfor is different?

We have been arguing that survivors of the sectors will be those 1) with manageable near-term maturities, especially offshore maturities; 2) a...

CMB International

Longfor (960 HK) – Transition leaving growth muted

On the DP side, the lack of effective land bank (only 22.5mn sqm excl. Yantai and sold but unbooked GFA) would put sales outlook under pressure...

CMB International

Longfor (960 HK) – Wu’s retirement: short-term pain for long-term gain

Its founder Ms.Wu Yajun resigned from Chairlady position and the current CEO Mr. Chen Xuping is promoted to take over Chairman.

CMB International

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