External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Credit

<ul><li>LNGFORs dropped 20pts over the past 3 weeks, due mainly to the collateral damage of the sharp downturn of COGARDs.</li><li>As we discussed in our comments on 15 Aug’23, Longfor is facing a very different situation than what COGARD is.</li><li>We have been arguing that survivors of the sectors will be those 1) with manageable near-term maturities, especially offshore maturities; 2) a matured portfolio of investment properties (IPs) such that the unencumbered value of IPs can be monetized or collateralized to obtain operating loans, CMBS or issue CBICL-guaranteed bonds. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

LNGFORs dropped 20pts over the past 3 weeks, due mainly to the collateral damage of the sharp downturn of COGARDs.As we discussed in our comments on 15 Aug’23, Longfor is facing a very different situation than what COGARD is.We have been arguing that survivors of the sectors will be those 1) with manageable near-term maturities, especially offshore maturities; 2) a matured portfolio of investment properties (IPs) such that the unencumbered value of IPs can be monetized or collateralized to obtain operating loans, CMBS or issue CBICL-guaranteed bonds. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The inclusion of shopping mall into C-REITs would certainly give hope to unlock mall operators’ investment property value.</li><li>Powerlong and Seazen are the two major beneficiaries as their IP value/market cap is 14/3x which means huge upside after value unlocking.</li><li>CR Land/Longfor could also benefit but they have less community malls as described in the requirement.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The inclusion of shopping mall into C-REITs would certainly give hope to unlock mall operators’ investment property value.Powerlong and Seazen are the two major beneficiaries as their IP value/market cap is 14/3x which means huge upside after value unlocking.CR Land/Longfor could also benefit but they have less community malls as described in the requirement.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – C-REITs’ scope extension to unlock mall operators’ IP value

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We think Longfor’s strategy shift into safety would continue to leave it lagging behind those SOE peers in 2023E.</li><li>On the DP side, the lack of effective land bank (only 22.5mn sqm excl. Yantai and sold but unbooked GFA) would put sales outlook under pressure especially in 2023E (guided -3% YoY).</li><li>Also management will not expand total debts for land acquisition which limits the sales upside in a recovery market. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We think Longfor’s strategy shift into safety would continue to leave it lagging behind those SOE peers in 2023E.On the DP side, the lack of effective land bank (only 22.5mn sqm excl. Yantai and sold but unbooked GFA) would put sales outlook under pressure especially in 2023E (guided -3% YoY).Also management will not expand total debts for land acquisition which limits the sales upside in a recovery market. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Longfor (960 HK) – Transition leaving growth muted

<ul><li>NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast.</li><li>However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign funds’expectation, thus driving today’s sector rally.</li><li>Looking at March, we expect even stronger March data (positive sales YoY) as 1) MTD sales of 30 major cities already recorded 24% growth YoY. 2) Our sales leading indicator GAIN was one of the highest in Feb, indicating very promising March. 3) Recent channel check in major cities suggests sales momentum to continue on stabilized property price and historically low mortgage rate. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast.However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign funds’expectation, thus driving today’s sector rally.Looking at March, we expect even stronger March data (positive sales YoY) as 1) MTD sales of 30 major cities already recorded 24% growth YoY. 2) Our sales leading indicator GAIN was one of the highest in Feb, indicating very promising March. 3) Recent channel check in major cities suggests sales momentum to continue on stabilized property price and historically low mortgage rate. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – NBS 2M23 data: Strong as expected

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Country Garden Holdings Co / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>As a background, can I refer the reader to Substack Note No One Cares 有中国特色 Real Estate Liquidity Spiral to Solvency Challenge 31st October 2022 ?</li><li>It bottoms ticked recovery in the highly leveraged Real estate Index Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSPMI) and rallied 103% from trough to peak 27th January 2023.</li><li>The mainland listed Index CSI 300 Real estate (CSI300RE) trough (1st November) to peak (27th November) was 43.5%.</li></ul>

As a background, can I refer the reader to Substack Note No One Cares 有中国特色 Real Estate Liquidity Spiral to Solvency Challenge 31st October 2022 ?It bottoms ticked recovery in the highly leveraged Real estate Index Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSPMI) and rallied 103% from trough to peak 27th January 2023.The mainland listed Index CSI 300 Real estate (CSI300RE) trough (1st November) to peak (27th November) was 43.5%.

China

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

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Longfor Properties (960 HK)

Longfor: How Longfor is different?

We have been arguing that survivors of the sectors will be those 1) with manageable near-term maturities, especially offshore maturities; 2) a...

CMB International

China Property Sector – C-REITs’ scope extension to unlock mall operators’ IP value

The inclusion of shopping mall into C-REITs would certainly give hope to unlock mall operators’ investment property value.

CMB International

Longfor (960 HK) – Transition leaving growth muted

On the DP side, the lack of effective land bank (only 22.5mn sqm excl. Yantai and sold but unbooked GFA) would put sales outlook under pressure...

CMB International

China Property Sector – NBS 2M23 data: Strong as expected

NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast. However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign...

CMB International

China Real Estate

It bottoms ticked recovery in the highly leveraged Real estate Index Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSPMI) and rallied 103% from trough to peak...

Untying The Gordian Knot

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