Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>UST yields were little changed at the close yesterday, as earlier yield declines were pared after Amazon announced a USD 15 bn sixpart notes offering.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST remained at 3.61%, while the yield on the 10Y UST declined 1 bp to 4.14%.</li>
<li>Equities slumped, ahead of Nvidia Corp’s widely anticipated earnings release tomorrow and amid market concerns over high AI valuations. </li>
</ul>


UST yields were little changed at the close yesterday, as earlier yield declines were pared after Amazon announced a USD 15 bn sixpart notes offering.
The yield on the 2Y UST remained at 3.61%, while the yield on the 10Y UST declined 1 bp to 4.14%.
Equities slumped, ahead of Nvidia Corp’s widely anticipated earnings release tomorrow and amid market concerns over high AI valuations. 


Trung Nguyen

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Bukit Makmur Mandiri, Longfor Group</li>
<li>UST yields declined yesterday, led by the long end. The yield on the 2Y UST was stable at 3.46%, while that on the 10Y UST fell 3 bps to 3.98%.</li>
<li>Equities climbed for a second day, on the back of generally strong Q3/25 earnings releases from US corporates. The S&amp;P 500 rose 1.1% to 6,735, and the Nasdaq was up 1.4% at 22,991.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Bukit Makmur Mandiri, Longfor Group
UST yields declined yesterday, led by the long end. The yield on the 2Y UST was stable at 3.46%, while that on the 10Y UST fell 3 bps to 3.98%.
Equities climbed for a second day, on the back of generally strong Q3/25 earnings releases from US corporates. The S&amp;P 500 rose 1.1% to 6,735, and the Nasdaq was up 1.4% at 22,991.


<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Adani Ports, Adani Green Energy</li>
<li>UST yields were broadly stable yesterday. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.91%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.45%. Equities rallied, following the release of strong retail sales data. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.5% to a new high of 6,297, while the Nasdaq was up 0.7% at 20,886.</li>
<li>Several Fed officials spoke yesterday. New York Fed President John Williams said it is “entirely appropriate” to maintain the current modestly restrictive monetary policy stance, as he expects inflation to increase in the coming months. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said that he still supports holding interest rates steady, stating that inflation may be at an “inflection point” after several months of soft price increases.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Adani Ports, Adani Green Energy
UST yields were broadly stable yesterday. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.91%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.45%. Equities rallied, following the release of strong retail sales data. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.5% to a new high of 6,297, while the Nasdaq was up 0.7% at 20,886.
Several Fed officials spoke yesterday. New York Fed President John Williams said it is “entirely appropriate” to maintain the current modestly restrictive monetary policy stance, as he expects inflation to increase in the coming months. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said that he still supports holding interest rates steady, stating that inflation may be at an “inflection point” after several months of soft price increases.


<ul>
<li>US treasury movements were muted yesterday, with the curve flattening marginally ahead of today’s CPI data release.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 4.02%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.47%.</li>
<li>Equities climbed for the third straight day, supported by optimism over US-China trade talks.</li>
</ul>


US treasury movements were muted yesterday, with the curve flattening marginally ahead of today’s CPI data release.
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 4.02%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.47%.
Equities climbed for the third straight day, supported by optimism over US-China trade talks.


Longfor's H1/23 results were weaker than expected, with y-o-y declines of 35% in overall revenue to CNY 65 bn and 40% in revenue from property development to CNY 50 bn. That said, recurring income rose 10.4% to CNY 12.2 bn, which is becoming a meaningful annuity-like cash flow. This will be helpful in underpinning Longfor's financial risk profile should there be a prolonged downturn in the property sector. The company appears to have healthy access to bank funding, and should have sufficient liquidity to meet near-term debt maturities. That said, we highlight the risk of a potential reduction in the liquidity buffer, due to weak contracted sales and higher ST debt. Longfor recorded contracted sales of only CNY 7.6 bn in July 2023, compared to an average of CNY 11 bn per month in H1. ST debt surged 75% to c. CNY 39 bn, from c. CNY 22 bn at FYE 2022. We maintain our "Hold" recommendation on the LNGFOR curve. The various notes appear to offer good value at current yields of 15-21%. That said, market technicals are very poor for private developers, with even the bonds of solid names such as Longfor experiencing volatility.

  Longfor's H1/23 results were weaker than expected, with y-o-y declines of 35% in overall revenue to CNY 65 bn and 40% in revenue from property development to CNY 50 bn. That said, recurring income rose 10.4% to CNY 12.2 bn, which is becoming a meaningful annuity-like cash flow. This will be helpful in underpinning Longfor's financial risk profile should there be a prolonged downturn in the property sector.   The company appears to have healthy access to bank funding, and should have sufficient liquidity to meet near-term debt maturities. That said, we highlight the risk of a potential reduction in the liquidity buffer, due to weak contracted sales and higher ST debt. Longfor recorded contracted sales of only CNY 7.6 bn in July 2023, compared to an average of CNY 11 bn per month in H1. ST debt surged 75% to c. CNY 39 bn, from c. CNY 22 bn at FYE 2022.   We maintain our "Hold" recommendation on the LNGFOR curve. The various notes appear to offer good value at current yields of 15-21%. That said, market technicals are very poor for private developers, with even the bonds of solid names such as Longfor experiencing volatility. 

Longfor Group - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

China

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

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Longfor Properties (960 HK)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Bharti Airtel, New World...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Bukit Makmur Mandiri, Longfor Group

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Adani Ports, Adani Green Energy

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US treasury movements were muted yesterday, with the curve flattening marginally ahead of today’s CPI data release. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2...

Lucror Analytics

Longfor Group - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Longfor's H1/23 results were weaker than expected, with y-o-y declines of 35% in overall revenue to CNY 65 bn and 40% in revenue from property...

Lucror Analytics

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