Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our latest int'l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US</li>
<li>Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.</li>
<li>We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.</li>
</ul>


In our latest int'l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US
Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.
We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.


MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday morning, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-discovery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5181:1" rel="noopener">Sk Discovery (006120 KS)</a>, current owner/controller of 36.56% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-chemicals-co-ltd-new" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26190:1" rel="noopener">Sk Chemicals Co Ltd/New (285130 KS)</a> announced an opportunistic Partial Offer to buy 5.22% more at KRW 108,800/share.</li>
<li>The stated purpose in the <a href="https://kind.krx.co.kr/common/disclsviewer.do?method=search&amp;acptno=20220902000019&amp;docno=&amp;viewerhost=&amp;viewerport=" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tender Offer Announcement</a> is "Stability of Management Rights." This will get SK Discovery to 41.77%, permitting consolidation of SK Chemicals.</li>
<li>
The real reason?SK Chemicals shares are trading at less than one-third the value of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-bioscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31484:1" rel="noopener">SK Bioscience (302440 KS)</a> shares they hold (with net cash and others free).</li>
</ul>


On Friday morning, Sk Discovery (006120 KS), current owner/controller of 36.56% of Sk Chemicals Co Ltd/New (285130 KS) announced an opportunistic Partial Offer to buy 5.22% more at KRW 108,800/share.
The stated purpose in the Tender Offer Announcement is "Stability of Management Rights." This will get SK Discovery to 41.77%, permitting consolidation of SK Chemicals.

The real reason?SK Chemicals shares are trading at less than one-third the value of the SK Bioscience (302440 KS) shares they hold (with net cash and others free).


SK Discovery Launches Opportunistic Partial Tender on SK Chemicals To Buy SK Bio CHEAP

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics (207940 KS)</a> achieved highest ever semi-annual revenue of KRW 1.62 trillion in H1 2022, with an operating profit of KRW346.1 billion, mainly driven by its contract manufacturing business.</li>
<li>At the end of Q2, the company had an order book of $7.9 billion, entailing revenue visibility. Its new plant is on track to start operation in October.</li>
<li>Samsung Bioepis has launched first ophthalogy biosimilar in the U.S. in June. Both the CDMO and biosimilar businesses are expected to clock solid annual revenue growth in 2022.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) achieved highest ever semi-annual revenue of KRW 1.62 trillion in H1 2022, with an operating profit of KRW346.1 billion, mainly driven by its contract manufacturing business.
At the end of Q2, the company had an order book of $7.9 billion, entailing revenue visibility. Its new plant is on track to start operation in October.
Samsung Bioepis has launched first ophthalogy biosimilar in the U.S. in June. Both the CDMO and biosimilar businesses are expected to clock solid annual revenue growth in 2022.


Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Record-High Semi-Annual Revenue Exceeding KRW1 Trillion

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>It is time to throw off the old valuation models. Fujifilm is no longer a dusty old camera maker</li>
<li>The healthcare business is already the biggest earnings driver and with aggressive capex.... </li>
<li>Fujifilm will become the biggest biopharma contract manufacturing company in the world. Valuations don't reflect that. </li>
</ul>


It is time to throw off the old valuation models. Fujifilm is no longer a dusty old camera maker
The healthcare business is already the biggest earnings driver and with aggressive capex.... 
Fujifilm will become the biggest biopharma contract manufacturing company in the world. Valuations don't reflect that. 


Fujifilm (4901) | Bio Pharma Giant Is a Double

Crude oil prices display bullish short-term reversals, resulting in bullish price and RS reversals for global Energy stocks -- add exposure. From a macro perspective, despite some mild price deterioration recently on major indexes around the globe, our outlook remains unchanged and we remain neutral yet constructive overall. Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we continue to see attractive opportunities in many countries/regions such as Japan, China (Shanghai Composite), Europe, India, and Canada, to name a few.

Crude oil prices display bullish short-term reversals, resulting in bullish price and RS reversals for global Energy stocks -- add exposure. From a macro perspective, despite some mild price deterioration recently on major indexes around the globe, our outlook remains unchanged and we remain neutral yet constructive overall. Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we continue to see attractive opportunities in many countries/regions such as Japan, China (Shanghai Composite), Europe, India, and Canada, to name a few.

Global Energy Sector Improving -- Buying Reliance Industries Ltd, Several Others

Switzerland

Lonza Group AG produces organic fine chemicals, biocides, active ingredients, and biotechnology products.  The Company offers custom chemical manufacturing and fermentation processing and manufactures its products for the life sciences, pharmaceuticals, food processing, and agricultural products industries.  Lonza operates production sites in Europe, the United States, and China.

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Lonza Group AG (LONN VX)

MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities

$93 on $ACWI has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and it now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun....

Vermilion Research

SK Discovery Launches Opportunistic Partial Tender on SK Chemicals To Buy SK Bio CHEAP

SK Discovery has launched an opportunistic Offer to buy 5.2% of SK Chem to go >40+%. A small premium to recent but only a 12-week high... ish......

Travis Lundy

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Record-High Semi-Annual Revenue Exceeding KRW1 Trillion

Samsung Biologics reported 51% y/y revenue growth to KRW1 trillion in H1. With all plants operating at full capacity, business operations remain...

Tina Banerjee

Fujifilm (4901) | Bio Pharma Giant Is a Double

We are bullish on Fujifilm for two reasons: (1) the company’s earnings structure is now dominated by healthcare, and (2) the market is mis-pricing...

Mark Chadwick

Global Energy Sector Improving -- Buying Reliance Industries Ltd, Several Others

Crude oil prices display bullish short-term reversals, resulting in bullish price and RS reversals for global Energy stocks -- add exposure.

Vermilion Research

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