IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Seoul Guarantee Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a>, a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/seoul-guarantee-insurance-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:113213" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/seoul-guarantee-insurance-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:113296" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive, and we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS), a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).
We previously discussed the IPO in Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case and Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bear Case. 
In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive, and we would pass on the IPO.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a>, a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/seoul-guarantee-insurance-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:113213" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on ongoing market share losses, weak performing credit insurance business, a 1H23 increase in the combined ratio and a decline in ROA/ROE metrics. </li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS), a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).
In Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on ongoing market share losses, weak performing credit insurance business, a 1H23 increase in the combined ratio and a decline in ROA/ROE metrics. 


Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bear Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a>, a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).</li>
<li>The IPO price range is KRW39,500-51,800 per share. The bookbuilding will run from 13 to 19 October, with pricing on 25 October. The shares will be listed in November.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a leading market share, solid premium growth, the highest industry margins, a high solvency ratio and a high dividend payout. </li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS), a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).
The IPO price range is KRW39,500-51,800 per share. The bookbuilding will run from 13 to 19 October, with pricing on 25 October. The shares will be listed in November.
The bull case rests on a leading market share, solid premium growth, the highest industry margins, a high solvency ratio and a high dividend payout. 


Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

Lotte Non Life Insurance Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It was reported in numerous local media that the sale process of Lotte Non Life Insurance Co (000400 KS) could start in October 2023.</li>
<li>There are four companies including Shinhan Financial (055550 KS), Hana Financial (086790 KS), Woori Financial Group (316140 KS), and Kyobo Life Insurance that may be interested in acquiring Lotte Non-Life Insurance. </li>
<li>Minority shareholders are not likely to benefit from this potential huge management M&amp;A premium of Lotte Non-Life Insurance. </li>
</ul>


It was reported in numerous local media that the sale process of Lotte Non Life Insurance Co (000400 KS) could start in October 2023.
There are four companies including Shinhan Financial (055550 KS), Hana Financial (086790 KS), Woori Financial Group (316140 KS), and Kyobo Life Insurance that may be interested in acquiring Lotte Non-Life Insurance. 
Minority shareholders are not likely to benefit from this potential huge management M&amp;A premium of Lotte Non-Life Insurance. 


Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>Korea FSC will accept financial institutions' LOC and LPs' investment performance agreements as certifying documents for securing funds. This revision will be effective right from April 1 this year.</li>
<li>The impact from a preemptive trading perspective is likely to be significant. Additional stake purchases through tender offers will increase more aggressively, particularly when purchasing shares from the majority shareholder.</li>
<li>We should first pay attention to companies where private equity (PE) is the largest shareholder whose stake is relatively low (less than 50%): Hugel, Hana Tour Service, &amp; Hanssem</li>
</ul>


Korea FSC will accept financial institutions' LOC and LPs' investment performance agreements as certifying documents for securing funds. This revision will be effective right from April 1 this year.
The impact from a preemptive trading perspective is likely to be significant. Additional stake purchases through tender offers will increase more aggressively, particularly when purchasing shares from the majority shareholder.
We should first pay attention to companies where private equity (PE) is the largest shareholder whose stake is relatively low (less than 50%): Hugel, Hana Tour Service, &amp; Hanssem


Korea FSC Officially Eases a Major Hurdle for a Tender Offer: Names to Watch

South Korea

Lotte Non-Life Insurance Company Ltd. provides a variety of non-life insurance services, such as auto, fire, marine, long-term casualty and property, pension, and retirement insurance products. The Company also operates a foreign reinsurance business.

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Lotte Non Life Insurance Co (000400 KS)

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive, and we...

Arun George

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on ongoing market share losses, weak performing credit insurance business, a 1H23 increase in the combined ratio and a decline...

Arun George

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a leading market share, solid premium growth, the highest industry margins, a high solvency ratio and a high dividend payout.

Arun George

Lotte Non-Life Insurance: Who Will Buy?

There are four companies including Shinhan Financial, Hana Financial, Woori Financial Group, and Kyobo Life Insurance that may be interested in...

Douglas Kim

Korea FSC Officially Eases a Major Hurdle for a Tender Offer: Names to Watch

This post summarizes Korea FSC's official statement about easing the funding capacity requirement for a tender offer and provides the names which...

Sanghyun Park

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