SPAC Deep Dive, subSPAC

subSPAC

SPAC Deep Dive

Each week we’ll identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Electric Vehicle Startup Lucid Motors, the poster child for the SPAC Boom in 2021, has seen its valuation plummet in recent months amidst a string of production &amp; quality control issues, in addition to other demand headwinds.</li><li>As the macroeconomic environment deteriorates further, some rivals claim that the company could go bankrupt unless it cuts back on spending and reprices its vehicles.</li><li>Elon Musk had an ominous warning for EV startup Lucid Motors last week</li></ul>

Electric Vehicle Startup Lucid Motors, the poster child for the SPAC Boom in 2021, has seen its valuation plummet in recent months amidst a string of production &amp; quality control issues, in addition to other demand headwinds.As the macroeconomic environment deteriorates further, some rivals claim that the company could go bankrupt unless it cuts back on spending and reprices its vehicles.Elon Musk had an ominous warning for EV startup Lucid Motors last week

President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

President

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Big valuation and multiples despite on delivering its first care in 4Q21 (no revenues and burning free cash flow)</li>
<li>Lofty delivery goals provided for 2022 and 2023....already disappointing investors</li>
<li>Optimistic market share and ASP assumptions have been made by management</li>
</ul>


Big valuation and multiples despite on delivering its first care in 4Q21 (no revenues and burning free cash flow)
Lofty delivery goals provided for 2022 and 2023....already disappointing investors
Optimistic market share and ASP assumptions have been made by management


Lucid (LCID) - Is This a Lucid Investment Opportunity?

<ul><li>2021 was the year of EV Stocks, with automakers raising large sums of money without any vehicle deliveries or revenues.</li><li>Swedish EV Maker Polestar is the latest in a long list of EV makers to go public through a SPAC, but there’s more to this deal than first meets the eye</li><li>Polestar is set to make its public debut at a critical juncture in the nascent EV Market where Tesla has captured a lion’s share and the competition is struggling to scale</li></ul>

2021 was the year of EV Stocks, with automakers raising large sums of money without any vehicle deliveries or revenues.Swedish EV Maker Polestar is the latest in a long list of EV makers to go public through a SPAC, but there’s more to this deal than first meets the eyePolestar is set to make its public debut at a critical juncture in the nascent EV Market where Tesla has captured a lion’s share and the competition is struggling to scale

Polestar Is The Dark Horse in the EV Race

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>SPACs have had another blockbuster year, with 190 deals being closed out</li><li>Many more have either signed definitive agreements or sitting on the sidelines patiently scouting for deals.</li><li>However, post-merger SPAC performance has been horrific with the average De-SPAC returning -17% and the Median having returns of -25%</li></ul>

SPACs have had another blockbuster year, with 190 deals being closed outMany more have either signed definitive agreements or sitting on the sidelines patiently scouting for deals.However, post-merger SPAC performance has been horrific with the average De-SPAC returning -17% and the Median having returns of -25%

These Were The Best Performing SPACs of the Year

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> at the annual December reconstitution. The estimated one-way trade is US$11.05bn.</li>
<li>Impact on the inclusions ranges from 0.25-2.22 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 1.4-3.38 days of ADV to sell.</li>
<li>There will be large inflows on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms (FB US)</a> and large outflows on Tesla, Apple, NVidia, Amazon and Google.</li>
</ul>


There are 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) at the annual December reconstitution. The estimated one-way trade is US$11.05bn.
Impact on the inclusions ranges from 0.25-2.22 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 1.4-3.38 days of ADV to sell.
There will be large inflows on Meta Platforms (FB US) and large outflows on Tesla, Apple, NVidia, Amazon and Google.


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Six Changes at the Annual Reconstitution

United States

Lucid Group Inc. operates as an automotive company. The Company manufactures luxury electric cars, as well as provides energy storage and original equipment solutions. Lucid Group serves customers in the United States and Canada.

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Lucid Group (LCID US)

Race to Survival

As the macroeconomic environment deteriorates further, some rivals claim that the company could go bankrupt unless it cuts back on spending and...

subSPAC

Lucid (LCID) - Is This a Lucid Investment Opportunity?

Aggressive original assumptions must be recalibrated after guiding deliveries down ~35% from original 2022 guidance and pushing out the timing of...

Robert C Prather Jr

Polestar Is The Dark Horse in the EV Race

2021 was the year of EV Stocks, with automakers raising large sums of money without any vehicle deliveries or revenues. Swedish EV Maker Polestar...

subSPAC

These Were The Best Performing SPACs of the Year

SPACs have had another blockbuster year, with 190 deals being closed out. Many more have either signed definitive agreements or sitting on the...

subSPAC

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Six Changes at the Annual Reconstitution

There are 6 changes for the NASDAQ-100 index at the annual December reconstitution. Apart from the flows on the adds and deletes, there will be...

Brian Freitas

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