Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While tariff headlines may dominate, accumulate the miners on weakness</li>
<li>The positive Supply and Demand drivers for copper are  still intact</li>
<li>Latest tariffs add to the continued inflationary pulse around the world</li>
</ul>


While tariff headlines may dominate, accumulate the miners on weakness
The positive Supply and Demand drivers for copper are  still intact
Latest tariffs add to the continued inflationary pulse around the world


Copper Miners Update Post US Tariff Announcement

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.
Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances


Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Global copper-mine production declined in early 2026, driven by lower output and disruptions in key producing nations like Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)</li>
<li>Anticipation and fears of aggressive U.S. import tariffs on copper and related metal products prompted traders to aggressively divert and ship refined copper into U.S. (COMEX) warehouses</li>
<li>We expect stocks to now digest the new-normal 14,000 USD/ton copper price. Check out our recent initiation: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amerigo-resources-arg-cn-copper-factory-tailings-processor-that-sweeps-upside-to-shareholders" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:268297" rel="noopener">Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders</a> </li>
</ul>


Global copper-mine production declined in early 2026, driven by lower output and disruptions in key producing nations like Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
Anticipation and fears of aggressive U.S. import tariffs on copper and related metal products prompted traders to aggressively divert and ship refined copper into U.S. (COMEX) warehouses
We expect stocks to now digest the new-normal 14,000 USD/ton copper price. Check out our recent initiation: Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders 


Copper: Yangshan Premiums Approaching Highs, Stocks Digesting 14,000 USD/Ton Copper Assumptions

<ul>
<li>The single-asset tolling model at El Teniente provides copper price leverage without exploration, reserve replacement, or growth capex; the contract runs to 2037.</li>
<li>Debt-Free balance sheet and a rules-based capital return strategy sweep cash above a US$30m floor: US$41.7m returned in H1 2026 versus US$20.4m in FY25.</li>
<li>13.4x P/E, 6.4x EV/EBITDA, 8.6% yield; ROCE 75%; net cash US$50 mn, based on a copper price of USD 14,000/ton. </li>
</ul>


The single-asset tolling model at El Teniente provides copper price leverage without exploration, reserve replacement, or growth capex; the contract runs to 2037.
Debt-Free balance sheet and a rules-based capital return strategy sweep cash above a US$30m floor: US$41.7m returned in H1 2026 versus US$20.4m in FY25.
13.4x P/E, 6.4x EV/EBITDA, 8.6% yield; ROCE 75%; net cash US$50 mn, based on a copper price of USD 14,000/ton. 


Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders

Canada

Lundin Mining Corporation is a diversified base metals mining company with operations in Chile, Portugal, Sweden, Spain and the United States, producing copper, zinc, lead and nickel. The Company holds interest in the Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a cobalt refinery located in Kokkola, Finland.

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Lundin Mining (LUN CN)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Copper Miners Update Post US Tariff Announcement

Both Jiangxi Copper (358.HK) and MMG (1208.HK) continue to perform very well. A big laggard here is Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.JP). Name ...

Rikki Malik

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; $QQQ and $SPX Breaking to All-Time Highs; Russell 2000 $IWM and Mid Caps $IJH also breaking above...

Vermilion Research

Copper: Yangshan Premiums Approaching Highs, Stocks Digesting 14,000 USD/Ton Copper Assumptions

With copper consolidating at 14,000 USD/ton, we provide rationale for the recent copper strength. Our recent initiation, Amerigo Resources (ARG...

Sameer Taneja

Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders

Debt-free copper tolling business with no mining or reserve risk, 75% FY26E ROCE and a cash-sweep payout policy that passes copper upside straight...

Sameer Taneja

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